基于隐结构模型和聚类分析的2 907例支气管扩张症中医证型研究

目的 对支气管扩张症的中医证候特征进行探究。方法 基于2 907例支气管扩张症住院患者的电子病历数据,运用Lantern 5.0和SPSS 20.0软件分别进行频次描述性统计、隐结构及系统聚类分析,综合判断潜在证型,为提出支气管扩张症的临床常见中医证型提供依据。结果 纳入的2 907份病历记录中涉及43个证型,其中频率大于5%的有痰热蕴肺证（52%）、痰湿阻肺证（25.5%）、肺气阴两虚证（9.1%）、痰瘀阻肺证（7.8%）、肺脾气虚证（7.1%）、肺肾气虚证（6.6%）;共记录有219个症状,将出现频次＞30次的67个症状作为显变量,综合聚类成风热犯肺证、痰热蕴肺证、痰湿阻肺证、痰瘀阻肺证、阴虚肺热证、肺肾气虚证、肺脾气虚证、肺气阴两虚证共8个证候;对频次＞60次的52个症状进行系统聚类分析,得到风热犯肺证、痰热蕴肺证、痰湿阻肺证、肺气阴两虚证、肺脾气虚兼外感证、阴虚内热兼血瘀证、肺肾气虚证、脾气虚证、兼证络伤咳血证共10个证候。以上3种方法推断出的证型中,重复出现至少两次的证型共有8个,即可认定为支气管扩张症常见证型。结论 支气管扩张症8个常见的证型为风热犯肺证、痰热蕴肺证、痰湿阻肺证、痰瘀阻肺证、阴虚肺热证、肺肾气虚证、肺脾气虚证、肺气阴两虚证。     

On the spectroscopic cum chemometric approach for differentiation and classification of inkjet,laser and photocopier printed documents

The potential of ATR-FTIR spectroscopy combined with chemometric methods is explored for the rapid and no-destructive forensic investigation of inkjet, laser and photocopier printed documents. The aim of the present study is to ascertain the source of origin of unknown printed documents, i.e., whether it belongs to the laser or inkjet or photocopier devices and also to visualize the intra-variations present in the same types of printed documents. It is observed that these printing inks contain polystyrene, bisphenol A, methyl acrylate and aromatic ethers as the main chemical constituents. The standard normal variate normalization is performed in order to eliminate the differences caused by the amount of toner powder/inks. The discrimination among printed documents is achieved by using chemometric methods including hierarchal cluster analysis and principal component analysis. Further, linear discriminant analysis is used to classify the unknown printed documents into its respective class of printing devices. The present methodology provides robust, non-destructive, reproducible, and simultaneous identification methods for printed documents.     

Dynamic latent trait models: An application to Latin American banking crises

Dynamic latent trait models combine information from a variety of manifest variables, possibly measured on different scales, that are presumed to be indicators of an unobserved latent phenomenon, while allowing appropriate consideration of the longitudinal character of time series. I use a Bayesian dynamic latent trait model of banking sector financial accounts measured at the country/quarter level to build an indicator of banking system robustness in Latin America. As a methodological innovation, I extend dynamic latent trait models to take into account country-specific effects of bank regulatory regimes through hierarchical modeling of factor loadings. I suggest how these models can be applied to other types of phenomena—for example to combine existing political regime indicators to build a more informative measure of democracy.     

Fragrance transfer between fabrics for forensic reconstruction applications

Sexual assault is a serious crime that often has low conviction rates. Recent literature has demonstrated that there is potential for fragrances to be valuable in forensic reconstructions where there has been contact between individuals. However, developing appropriate evidence bases for understanding the nature of fragrance transfer in these contexts is needed. This article presents three experiments that address the transfer process of fragrances that have been transferred from a primary piece of fabric onto a secondary piece of fabric, in a manner that could occur during an assault. The three variables studied were the ageing time of the fragrances on the first fabric prior to transfer, the contact time between the two fabrics, and lastly the fabric type (of the primary material and the recipient material). The transfer was evaluated using a validated solid phase micro-extraction gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (SPME GC–MS) method. The findings demonstrated that all three variables had an impact on the transfer of fragrances between clothing fabrics. Generally, lower volatility compounds were transferred and recovered in larger amounts than higher volatility compounds. All fragrance compounds were successfully recovered from a secondary piece of fabric even when the contact time was as short as 10 s, and even when the perfume was aged on the primary fabric for as long as 48 h. The nature of the fragrance transfer also depended on the fabric type, so that a clear discrimination was observed between the fragrance transfer that occurred onto a natural fabric (cotton) and onto a synthetic fabric (polyester).     

警察战术实战模型的建模研究

由于我国目前社会治安局势日益严峻,公安机关在处置突发事件、群体性事件方面的压力也越来越大,因此,建立快速反应机制和系列案件的实战模型并开展警务专项教育训练,已成为警察教育训练的当务之急。在警察战术学科领域,“实战模拟研究”是开展公安民警执法战斗研究的特征研究方法,其研究过程集合了军事学作战模拟的相关技术,并将其核心内容与社会学量化研究相结合,力图建立警察战术的实战模型(数学模型),以期指导警察战术模拟教学与训练的实施,为警察战术训练仿真技术的实现提供路径与方法,从而更好地为提高公安民警实战能力服务。     

Decomposing the Vote: Individual,Communal, and Cantonal Sources of Voting Behavior in Switzerland

This article considers individual, communal, and cantonal sources of voting behavior in the 2007 National Council elections in Switzerland. Using hierarchical linear models, it is shown how the vote propensity for the five main parties (CVP, FDP, Greens, SP, and SVP) varies across individuals, communes, and cantons. Key explanatory factors at each of these levels are explored, as well as cross‐party differences in the effects of these factors.     

Just Another Club? The Distinctiveness of the Relation Between Religious Service Attendance and Adolescent Psychosocial Adjustment

This study used hierarchical linear modeling to compare longitudinal patterns of adolescent religious service attendance and club attendance, and to contrast the longitudinal relations between adolescent adjustment and religious service versus club attendance. Participants included 1050 students (47% girls) encompassing a school district in Canada, who completed the survey first in grade nine and again in grades 11 and 12. Results demonstrated that patterns of religious service attendance over time were quite different from other clubs. Religious attendance was uniquely associated with several indicators of positive as well as negative adjustment. Club involvement, conversely, was only associated with positive adjustment––particularly for individuals who reported sustained involvement over time. Findings suggest that religious services may provide some unique experiences––both positive and negative––over and above what may be provided in other clubs, and that sustained, rather than sporadic participation in clubs, may be especially important for adolescent adjustment.

Racial Identity and Academic Achievement in the Neighborhood Context: A Multilevel Analysis

Increasingly, researchers have found relationships between a strong, positive sense of racial identity and academic achievement among African American youth. Less attention, however, has been given to the roles and functions of racial identity among youth experiencing different social and economic contexts. Using hierarchical linear modeling, the authors examined the relationship of racial identity to academic outcomes, taking into account neighborhood-level factors. The sample consisted of 564 African American eighth-graders (56% male). The authors found that neighborhood characteristics and racial identity related positively to academic outcomes, but that some relationships were different across neighborhood types. For instance, in neighborhoods low in economic opportunity, high pride was associated with a higher GPA, but in more advantaged neighborhoods, high pride was associated with a lower GPA. The authors discuss the need to take youth’s contexts into account in order to understand how racial identity is active in the lives of African American youth.

非法证据排除规则的逻辑重释与机制完善

我国非法证据排除路径在某种程度上呈现出规则限缩适用的趋势.通过非法证据排除规则来遏制非法取证行为与实现权利救济是当前该规则建构和运行的基本模式,但依据规则演化的形态特征及共性与个性问题,表明其适用现状并不乐观.目前非法证据排除规则存在着抉择上的双重冲突、样态上的二元割裂、救济上的双重忧虑等逻辑困境,这也决定了其逻辑起点...     

感觉与认知:经济发展水平与公共服务满意度的悖论逻辑

地区公共服务满意度,作为衡量公民公共服务获得感的有效载体,与当地经济发展紧密联系,但学界对两者之间的关系还存在分歧。通过解构公共服务满意度的特征,可以从时间、空间两个层面的视角来解释地方经济发展状况对公共服务满意度的影响。实证分析结果表明,在推进基本公共服务均等化的背景下,经济发展的差异会影响公民主体认知模式和社会资本的形成进而影响公共服务满意度。