SELECTIVE INCAPACITATION,THREE STRIKES,AND THE PROBLEM OF AGING PRISON POPULATIONS: USING SIMULATION MODELING TO SEE THE FUTURE*

Research Summary: The growth of prison populations over the last three decades is a great source of concern for policy makers and observers. One mechanism by which this growth occurs is via sentencing reforms that extend length of stay for certain categories of offenders. This has the effect of aging prison populations, which is problematic for many reasons. Apart from the increased financial burdens entailed in caring for older prisoners, it is also important to consider the intent of reforms in evaluating them. Of late, sentencing reform has become increasingly focused on the selective incapacitation of dangerous offenders. Policies that have the effect of aging the prison population are problematic from this perspective due to the diminishing returns realized with respect to incapacitation as offenders age. Dynamic systems simulation analysis is employed to investigate the likely consequences of recent sentencing reforms that increase length of stay for some offenders. These analyses indicate that the effects of recent reforms may not be as dramatic as some observers have predicted, but they suggest that the consideration of alternatives to incarceration for elderly offenders is warranted from the standpoint of cost considerations as well as that of selective incapacitation. Policy Implications: The results indicate that California's Three Strikes law will not accelerate the rate of growth of the elderly prison population. However, even without increasing the proportional representation of elderly prisoners, the number of elderly prisoners is expected to grow substantially over the next three decades. These prisoners will strain criminal justice system resources while presenting little public safety threat. State criminal justice policy makers and their constituents should closely examine laws that impose very long stays without discretionary release, as these statutes may contribute to the production of elderly prisoners. This problem is particularly pronounced in Three Strikes and other habitual offender laws that use retrospective methods to identify habitual offenders. Additionally, the effects of reforms lengthening stay for some offenders must be considered in light of cumulative effects of sentencing reform resulting in changes to the demographic structure of the prison population overall. Dynamic systems simulation modeling is presented as a valuable policy‐making tool, as it allows the policy analyst to examine the potential impacts of laws in the absence of data suitable for conventional statistical analyses.     

论宪法与区际法律冲突

本文通过分析宪法中的立法管辖权规范及其与区际法律冲突的关系 ,探讨了宪法与区际法律冲突之间的关系。此外 ,本文还着重讨论了中国的宪法 ,尤其是两部基本法 ,对区际法律冲突问题的影响。本文的结论强调 ,宪法在一定程度上决定了复合法域国家区际法律冲突的产生、范围及其解决途径。     

FATHERS AND CHILD ABUSE ALLEGATIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF PARENTAL SEPARATION AND DIVORCE

Fathers' role in child abuse in the context of parental separation and divorce has been the subject of continuous stereotyping over the last several decades. This article examines the stereotypes projected against current research, particularly findings from a study of an experimental family court program designed for the better management of residence and contact disputes where child abuse allegations had been made. These findings are discussed in regard to similar studies internationally. While the two prevailing but opposing stereotypes of fathers' role in child abuse in this context were not confirmed by the research, aspects of the stereotypes regarding fathers' views and mothers' views of each other were supported. Problems associated with the paradoxical position of fathers as the most frequently alleged perpetrators of abuse, the most frequently substantiated perpetrators, and also the most frequently unsubstantiated perpetrators tend not to be fully addressed by the current court process for these disputes.     

西方文化霸权的运作程式和理论形态

在全球化的时代,西方文化霸权已经成为一个日益凸显的国际关系问题,他们以媒介霸权为技术基础,以话语控制为基本途径,把自己的意识形态、文化价值观在被输入国的广泛渗透,以种族优越论、文化至上论、文明冲突论等为理论支撑,实现自己文化霸权的目的。了解了西方文化霸权的基本程式和理论基础,我们要更加自觉地捍卫自己的文化主权。     

金融控股公司:加入WTO后我国金融业发展模式的现实选择

随着我国加入WTO及经济的全球化 ,面对国际金融集团涌入国内市场 ,加快整合我国金融业、提高市场竞争力变得越来越迫切。金融控股公司将成为我国金融业由分业经营向混业经营过度的现实选择。根据我国的“准金融控股公司”的现状 ,借鉴国外金融控股公司的发展经验和我国金融业的实际情况 ,我国金融控股公司的组建、监管、发展模式等方面的问题需要我们不断地深入研究并附之实现。     

国外别居制度比较

别居又称分居,它产生于欧洲中世纪基督教的教会法,至今仍存在.国外各主要国家及域外香港、澳门等地区都规定了别居制度.通过别居制度与离婚制度关系、别居的原因、别居的程序、别居的后果及别居的终止的比较,以体现别居制度在社会生活中的价值所在.     

论投票权征集制度中的代理权

本文共分三个部分第一部分总结了投票权征集制度中的代理权不同于一般代理权的特征;第二部分在第一部分的基础上进一步分析了投票权征集制度中的代理权不同于一般代理权的特殊权利义务内容;第三部分又在第二部分的基础上,对我国在投票权征集方面的立法提出了三点具体的建议。     

STRUCTURAL FACTORS AND BLACK INTERRACIAL HOMICIDE: A NEW EXAMINATION OF THE CAUSAL PROCESS*

This study evaluates the assumption that deprivation among African Americans and racial inequality lead to black interracial homicide due to racial conflict and antagonism. Using refined race‐adjusted Supplemental Homicide Report data, Uniform Crime Report data and census data, we test an alternative hypothesis that draws on the macrostructural opportunity theory to assess and more accurately specify the relationship between structural characteristics and black interracial homicide. We find that first, the relationship between economic factors and black interracial homicide can be explained in large part by high rates of financially motivated crime such as robbery, and second, that economic factors are associated with financially motivated but not expressive black interracial killings. Analyses of black intraracial killings are performed for comparison purposes. Collectively, the findings suggest that conflict‐based explanations rooted in racial antagonism and frustration aggression may be premature.     

欧盟涉外离婚法律适用的新发展——以《罗马条例Ⅲ》为中心

伴随欧洲一体化进程的深入,欧盟内部人员的跨国流动和社会家庭秩序的正常运转,要求成员国彼此间在涉外婚姻家庭冲突法领域实现统一化。以欧盟婚姻事项冲突法立法演变为出发点,以《罗马条例Ⅲ》的法律规定为中心,笔者着重探究将意思自治原则引入涉外婚姻家庭法律适用的合理性;并在现行规定的基础上反观惯常居所地这一连结因素的折衷性,试图思考理论层面可能浮出的疑难及其解决路径。     

Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method

In recent years, a widespread consensus has emerged about the necessity of establishing bridges between quantitative and qualitative approaches to empirical research in political science. In this article, we discuss the use of the synthetic control method as a way to bridge the quantitative/qualitative divide in comparative politics. The synthetic control method provides a systematic way to choose comparison units in comparative case studies. This systematization opens the door to precise quantitative inference in small‐sample comparative studies, without precluding the application of qualitative approaches. Borrowing the expression from Sidney Tarrow, the synthetic control method allows researchers to put “qualitative flesh on quantitative bones.” We illustrate the main ideas behind the synthetic control method by estimating the economic impact of the 1990 German reunification on West Germany.