Japan and the cross-Taiwan Strait conflict

An armed conflict between Taiwan and China is not unthinkable in the future. For historical, geographical, economic, and diplomatic reasons, Japan would not be able to stand on the sidelines. Relying on three major concepts—national interests, path dependence and balance of power, this paper explores Japan’s three possible roles in the event of a cross-Strait conflict. First, Japan could pass the buck, staying out of the conflict as much as possible and providing at most logistical and intelligence support for an American military operation. Second, it could balance power, throwing its weight behind Washington against Beijing. Finally, it could play peacemaker. At the end of the article, the author discusses several key factors that would shape Tokyo’s decision-making in the event of a cross-Strait conflict and assesses the relative probability of each option. He is the author ofExplaining Chinese Democratization (Praeger, 2000). His recent research interests include Chinese pacifism and China’s historical place in the world. For their comments, the author would like to thank anonymous reviewers, Natalie Edwards, Mei Guan, Sujian Guo, James Hsiung, Wade Hudson, Erica Johnson, Chien Liu, Andrew Needle, Anne Schotter, Steve Snow, Liang Tang, Wallace Thies, Yong Wang, and Kim Worthy.     

Getting to Peace? Negotiating with the LRA in Northern Uganda

Getting to peace is not a straightforward process. In Uganda, internal conflict has raged for more than 20 years between the Government and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The construction of a comprehensive negotiated settlement is at the mercy of conflicting ideologies and influences at the international, national and grassroots levels. This paper examines the Juba peace talks, the major actors in the negotiation process, and tension between prosecution and amnesty.

Household dissolution, child care and divorce law

This paper sets up a model of household dissolution in which one party decides to leave a household that contains children. We study the effects of divorce law on this decision and, in particular, the role of legal provisions governing the post-dissolution care of the household’s children. In particular, we show that there is an inevitable tension between achieving efficiency in marriage and at the same time achieving efficiency in divorce.     

中国农村的自杀问题(1980-2009)——兼与景军先生等商榷

通过对7省34村的质性访谈而获得的1980-2009年间604例农民自杀死亡案例的数据分析,本文认为当前农村自杀率仍呈显著上升态势。青年人自杀率的显著下降与老年人自杀率的急速上升并行不悖地运行于当下农村,青年女性自杀率的显著下降拉低了青年人整体自杀率并使之向下运行,然而,老年人自杀率的急速上升则拉升了农村的整体自杀率并使之向上运行。分析指出,决定这种复杂形貌的因素并非农村女性的迁移所导致,而是由于代际关系变动与离婚加速兴起所造成。其背后更为深刻的机制则表明,当前农村自杀率的复杂变化是现代性持续地侵蚀农村的产物。     

创业经济高质量发展的制度供给侧改革研究

国际政治经济环境趋于阶段性复杂,国内经济增速有所放缓,高质量发展是中国经济破解国际竞争和国内压力的主动性战略抉择.理论研究与国际社会经验证明:在创新驱动阶段,创业经济是国民经济转型发展的重要抓手;制度系统是影响创业经济质量的关键要素.改革开放四十余年来,中国创业经济制度经历了制度松动、制度允许、制度鼓励、系统支持、分类...