论命案现场法医会诊制度

命案现场的复杂性和特殊性,要求法医工作者不断提高检验水平。法医会诊是很好的形式。建立规范、完善的法医会诊制度将促进命案的及时侦破,提高命案侦破率,维护社会治安稳定。     

The Base Rate Study: Developing Base Rates for Risk Factors and Indicators for Engagement in Violent Extremism

Improvements have been made in identifying the prevalence of risk factors/indicators for violent extremism. A consistent problem is the lack of base rates. How to develop base rates is of equal concern. This study has two aims: (i) compare two methods for developing base rates; the Unmatched Count Technique (UCT) and direct questioning, (ii) generate base rates in a general population sample and compare these to a sample of lone-actor terrorists (n = 125). We surveyed 2108 subjects from the general population. Participants were recruited from an online access panel and randomly assigned to one of three conditions; direct survey, control, or UCT. Survey items were based on a lone-actor terrorist codebook developed from the wider literature. Direct questioning was more suitable under our study conditions where UCT resulted in deflation effects. Comparing the base rates identified a number of significant differences: (i) lone-actor terrorists demonstrated propensity indicators related to a cognitive susceptibility, and a crime- and/or violence-supportive morality more often; the general sample demonstrated protective factors more often, (ii) lone-actor terrorists demonstrated situational indicators related to a crime- and/or violence-supportive morality more often, whereas the general sample experienced situational stressors more often, (iii) lone-actor terrorists demonstrated indicators related to exposure to extremism more often. Results suggest there are measurable differences in the prevalence of risk factors between lone-actor terrorists and the general population. However, no single factor “predicts” violent extremism. This bears implications for our understanding of the interrelation of risk and protective factors, and for the risk assessment of violent extremism.     

Error Rates,Likelihood Ratios,and Jury Evaluation of Forensic Evidence

Forensic examiners regularly testify in criminal cases, informing the jurors whether crime scene evidence likely came from a source. In this study, we examine the impact of providing jurors with testimony further qualified by error rates and likelihood ratios, for expert testimony concerning two forensic disciplines: commonly used fingerprint comparison evidence and a novel technique involving voice comparison. Our method involved surveying mock jurors in Amazon Mechanical Turk (N = 897 laypeople) using written testimony and judicial instructions. Participants were more skeptical of voice analysis and generated fewer “guilty” decisions than for fingerprint analysis (B = 2.00, OR = 7.06, p = <0.000). We found that error rate information most strongly decreased “guilty” votes relative to no qualifying information for participants who heard fingerprint evidence (but not those that heard voice analysis evidence; B = −1.16, OR = 0.32, p = 0.007). We also found that error rates and conclusion types led to a greater decrease on “guilty” votes for fingerprint evidence than voice evidence (B = 1.44, OR = 4.23, p = 0.021). We conclude that these results suggest jurors adjust the weight placed on forensic evidence depending on their prior views about its reliability. Future research should develop testimony and judicial instructions that can better inform jurors of the strengths and limitations of forensic evidence.     

The Political Economy of Exchange Rates in an Era of Global Production Chains

Scholars have long recognized that exchange-rate movements affect different actors within societies in different ways. However, increasingly complex global production chains add complications to longstanding theoretic models of exchange-rate politics. I argue that imported intermediate inputs condition firm preferences regarding the level and stability of exchange-rates and directly test these arguments using firm survey responses in a variety of countries. I employ multilevel models to evaluate how imported input profiles of firms interact with real effective exchange-rate movements to influence firm assessments of macroeconomic constraints. Higher dependence on imported inputs is linked to increased dissatisfaction with depreciating currencies, contingent on various firm and country characteristics. The results highlight the multiple channels through which exchange-rate movements can now affect exporters, nonexporters, and nontradables.     

Poisson-Based Regression Analysis of Aggregate Crime Rates

This article introduces the use of regression models based on the Poissondistribution as a tool for resolving common problems in analyzing aggregatecrime rates. When the population size of an aggregate unit is small relativeto the offense rate, crime rates must be computed from a small number ofoffenses. Such data are ill-suited to least-squares analysis. Poisson-basedregression models of counts of offenses are preferable because they arebuilt on assumptions about error distributions that are consistent withthe nature of event counts. A simple elaboration transforms the Poissonmodel of offense counts to a model of per capita offense rates. Todemonstrate the use and advantages of this method, this article presentsanalyses of juvenile arrest rates for robbery in 264 nonmetropolitancounties in four states. The negative binomial variant of Poisson regressioneffectively resolved difficulties that arise in ordinary least-squaresanalyses.     

Two fatal cases of selenium toxicity

Two patients, a 36-year-old female and a 36-year-old male, separately experienced new onset nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, abdominal pain, muscle weakness and pallor. Over a period of 14-16 h these symptoms continue and progress to include hypotension refractory to therapy, pulmonary edema and cardiovascular collapse. Autopsies show hemorrhagic pulmonary edema, splenomegaly and lack of anatomical cause for sudden death. Postmortem analysis, in one case post-embalming and exhumation, revealed elevated selenium concentrations and a determination of the cause of death. These two cases present several important features associated with selenium toxicity, two of which are previously unreported: (1) selenium as a potential homicidal agent, (2) the toxidrome and time frame of selenium toxicity, (3) selenium determination in exhumed, embalmed tissues, (4) postmortem urinary selenium concentration, and (5) decrease in tissue concentrations over time.     

Parteien und die Generosität der Altersrenten in Zeiten permanenter Austerität

Zusammenfassung: Die quantitative Sozialpolitikforschung weist ein doppeltes Defizit auf: Zum einen dominieren Analysen aggregierter Ausgaben(quoten), zum anderen fokussieren die meisten Studien zu Lohnersatzraten auf die Arbeitslosen‐ und Krankenversicherung, während die Rentengenerosität weitgehend ausgespart geblieben ist. Der vorliegende Artikel stößt in diese Lücke, indem er zunächst die theoretischen Besonderheiten der Rente diskutiert und zwei Hypothesen zu deren Rückbau und der Rolle der Parteien dabei formuliert. Im Anschluss an eine Methodendiskussion präsentieren wir die Ergebnisse von (robustheitsgetesteten) Regressionsanalysen der Veränderungen der Lohnersatzraten in 18 entwickelten Demokratien. Es zeigt sich, dass die Kürzungen der Lohnersatzraten im Rentenbereich weitaus geringer ausfallen als in den beiden anderen Bereichen, und dass sich die Parteieneffekte auffallend unterscheiden.     

农民工参加养老保险的影响因素研究

近年来,农民工的养老问题逐步凸显出来,他们的养老保险参保率普遍偏低,影响到了这一群体今后的养老．农民工作为社会弱势群体的构成部分之一,其养老保险状况是关系到社会和谐的一个重要问题。提高农民工养老保险的参保率,解除他们的后顾之忧,无论是对维护社会稳定,还是对构建和谐社会、促进经济发展都具有重要的意义。     

A cost comparison study of using global positioning system technology (electronic monitoring) in a medium secure forensic psychiatric service

‘Electronic Monitoring’ (EM) uses devices to monitor individuals’ whereabouts. In 2010, South London and Maudsley medium secure unit introduced EM to monitor individuals on leave. Analysis after two years revealed EM was associated with increased unescorted leave and reduced leave violation; however, comparative costs were not established. This study aims to compare costs of EM for patients on leave by comparing average total cost per patient with and without EM. Costs were compared before and after implementation of EM. Total cost of leave for each group was divided by number of patients to generate average total cost per patient. The average total cost per patient without EM was £1702; £1617 with EM. Although cost decreased, this was not statistically significant. The results showed no significant difference between average total costs per patient before and after EM. The finding of EM being cost-neutral is cautiously optimistic. Further trials are recommended.     

吴小桥故意杀人案浅析——根据第二届全国公安刑侦系统“命案卷宗评比”案例整理

全国公安刑侦系统2006年度"命案卷宗评比"工作于2006年11月10日至30日在云南警官学院侦查系进行。本院侦查系抽调了部分老师和学生参与了本次评比工作。同时,他们对全国31个省(区、市)参评的224个案例卷宗逐一进行整理后,提供给本学报以协办"案例分析"栏目的形式选择发表,对此,编辑部表示衷心地感谢和积极支持。"人命关于,命案乃大事"。本栏目刊登的命案案例,无论简繁或整理水平高低,能给广大公安刑侦民警在工作中有所启示便足亦。