A Test of Competing Hypotheses about Homicide Following Terrorist Attacks: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis of September 11 and Oklahoma City

There is substantial evidence that catastrophic events, including terrorist attacks, lead to increased levels of post-traumatic stress, especially in communities in close proximity to the incident. Some scholars also argue that these events disrupt social organization. On the other hand, many contend that these incidents produce social cohesion as community members coalesce to help each other in time of need. These ideas have resulted in competing hypotheses in the literature. The first is that violence will increase in the wake of catastrophic events due to heightened levels of individual stress and community disorganization. The second is that violence will decline after these events because of increased social cohesion, especially in the face of an outside threat. In order to test these competing hypotheses, we employed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) techniques to model the impact of the Oklahoma City bombing and the September 11 attacks on monthly homicide counts at the local, state, and national level. Unlike prior studies that provided evidence of an effect but did not use rigorous time-series techniques, we found no support for either of the competing hypotheses. We conclude that while such catastrophic events may have an effect on individual and collective efficacy well beyond the immediate impact of the incidents, these effects are not strong enough to influence homicide rates. An erratum to this article can be found at     

The (Surprising) stability of youth crime rates

Despite the profound demographic and socioeconomic changes characterizing family life in recent years, youth crime rates have remained more or less constant since 1971. This finding is of interest given the intense public concern regarding the welfare of children. It also serves as a convenient basis for projecting the future volume of youth crime.     

The persistence of fibres on skin in an outdoor deposition crime scene scenario

Textile fibres were transferred to a pig skin carcass and their persistence determined at daily intervals for up to a 12 day period during which time the carcass was left outdoors exposed to the prevailing weather conditions and animal activity. In the absence of strong winds and precipitation, the loss of fibres was found to be exponential. Stronger winds and heavier precipitation caused an increase in the rate of loss of fibres. The results of this study showed that the majority of fibres transferred to a body deposited outdoors, can be expected to be lost after the first 2 days, however, none of the experiments performed resulted in a complete loss of fibres, even after 12 days exposure. These persistence characteristics differed from those observed in a similar study using small sections of skin, rather than carcasses.The implications of the results of the present study in relation to the examination of fibre evidence in cases of homicide are discussed.     

论提高农民工参保率与保障水平

"十一五"末,我国农民工总数已达2.42亿人。农民工在为我国现代化建设做出巨大贡献的同时,其就业、社会保障等权益保障也取得长足进展。据最新统计,2010年底,农民工参加养老、医疗、工伤、失业等各项保险人数分别达3284万人、4583万人、6329万人、1990万人。相比2008、2009年进步显著。然而从总体看,这个庞大群体参保率依然偏低。如何切实加强社会保障,提高农民工参保率和保障水平是值得研究的问题。     

The Impact of Police Stops on Precinct Robbery and Burglary Rates in New York City, 2003-2010

New York City experienced a dramatic reduction in crime during the 1990s and continuing through the first decade of the current century. Researchers and commentators have debated the role of policing in New York’s crime drop, including the crime impact of New York’s policy of “stop, question, and frisk” (SQF)—yet, prior research on the crime-reduction effects of SQF is limited in important respects. We seek to overcome many of these limitations in a study of SQF effects on yearly precinct-level robbery and burglary rates in New York between 2003 and 2010. Contrary to prior research, the study reveals few effects of SQF on robbery and burglary. We caution against drawing definitive conclusions from both the current and prior research and recommend that future research address both the impact of SQF on crime and possible collateral effects on the rights and liberties of citizens in the communities most affected by the policy.     

Disparities in Infant Mortality Rates Among Immigrant Caribbean Groups in New York City

SUMMARY

This study examined infant mortality rates (IMR) in New York City (NYC) to identify those groups reporting higher IMR concentrations in recent years and to determine what factors and explanations are associated with this new trend.

Analysis of data from NYC Department of Health (DOH) identified infant mortality patterns throughout the City by both maternal birthplace and NYC Health Districts. In addition, infant mortality rates for those NYC populations with the highest concentrations were compared to the most recently available IMR data from their countries of origin. Focus group sessions were conducted with women in the identified groups in New York City in an effort to obtain their perspectives on causality and other factors associated with the new trend.

Strong patterns emerged from this study pointing to a concentration of the City's highest IMR among groups from the circum-Caribbean region. Results of focus group sessions with women in the identified population groups yielded a list of specific barriers faced by this population in the utilization of perinatal care services. In addition, the study resulted in some clearly delineated program and policy approaches that can help to address the disparities in IMR.

Myriad causative factors contribute to the high rates of IMR among Caribbean immigrant groups. Expanding the availability of both successful program models and promising practices is critical to decreasing infant mortality in immigrant communities. Specific recommendations are for the development of a strategic set of interventions designed to eliminate this most serious challenge to the health of new immigrant groups in NYC.

Any references to comparisons between data from NYC and data from the countries of origin were merely to serve as a reference point as it is not often possible to determine the level of scientific rigor applied to the collection and analysis of data external to the United States (U.S.).

Implications for social work practice with immigrant populations include the need for delivery of culturally competent services in general and for cultural sensitivity to health beliefs surrounding maternal child health issues in particular.     

Challenges of Protecting India From Terrorism

The secular, pluralistic, ethnically diverse, and vibrant democracy that India has nurtured ever since its independence in 1947 has become the envy of many radical and extremist ideologies and religions that seek to bring in order through tools of fourth generation warfare like Jihad and “Proxy War.” Typical examples of such conflicts facing India are the ones being waged against her by Jehadi organizations like the Lashkar-e-Taiba and other proxy factions supported by the Pakistan Inter Services Intelligence Agency. Despite a few pro-active measures instituted by the government of India after the 26/11 Mumbai attacks, there is no clear counter-terrorism policy that has been articulated either in the form of a doctrine or white paper. If India has to dispel the image of being a “soft state,” it is imperative that the government clearly spells out its stand on terrorism.     

Spatial patterns of homicide and political legitimacy in Europe*

Political legitimacy, or a state's “right to rule,” has been a concern for philosophers, political scientists, and sociologists for centuries. This paper examines the relationship between European states' level of political legitimacy and violence, as represented by their homicide rate. It is theorized that political illegitimacy affects homicide through deteriorating social institutions of control, violating the rules of reciprocity between the state and citizens, and/or creating an environment of “virtual statelessness” that encourages methods of “self-help.” Focusing on the modernized societies of Europe, where legitimacy may be more important to maintaining order, the present study reveals two important findings: political legitimate states have significantly lower levels of homicide, and high and low homicide rates in Europe are significantly clustered among post-Soviet states (high) and Western Europe (low).     

Trends of indecent images of children and child sexual offences between 2005/2006 and 2012/2013 within the United Kingdom

Abstract

Little is known about the trends of indecent images of children (IIOC) offences, as UK criminal justice figures are unavailable within official crime data. This study aims to explore the rates of conviction and the relationship between IIOC offences and child sexual abuse offences from 2005/2006 to 2012/2013. The results indicated a continuing increase in offences of take, permit, distribute IIOC, rape of a child under 13, sexual activity of child under 16 and abuse of children through prostitution or pornography. Six out of a possible 17 correlations were significant, with the strongest correlation found between take, make, distribute IIOC and rape of a female under 13. Explanations for the findings are discussed and the utility of comprehensive prevalence figures for different stakeholders involved in addressing this crime issue.     

Crime is Part of the Problem: Contexts of Lethal Violence in Finland and the USA

According to Zimring & Hawkins, the exceptionally high level of homicide in the USA is unrelated to the nation's overall crime problem. In contrast to this statement, a critical review of their evidence suggests that criminal activity may explain a significant share of the excess levels of lethal violence in the USA. As a first step towards testing this hypothesis, we have created a uniform victim-level data file of information on the method and the situational context of homicide cases in Finland and the USA. In support of the hypothesis, we find that homicides that occur in the context of another crime are much more prevalent in the USA than in Finland. This difference accounts for 35% of the overall gap in the homicide rate between these two nations. Moreover, our research indicates that the effect of the criminal context cannot be reduced to the 'instrument effect', i.e. the fact that handguns are much more prevalent in the USA. In light of these findings, it would be premature, in terms both of theory and of public policy, to treat lethal violence as a problem entirely independent of other crime.