国有独资与股份制商业银行效益对比分析

根据1995~2001年的统计资料,股份制商业银行的效益远高于国有独资商业银行,其原因是股份制商业银行的经营能力和获利能力总体上远高于国有独资商业银行。因此,应进一步强化国有独资商业银行的市场化改革,提高效益,增强竞争力。     

On Theory, Models, Model-Testing, and Estimation

I reply to comments and criticisms of my article raised in this Special Issue by Cantor and Land, Britt, O'Brien, Levitt, and Paternoster and Bushway.     

论清代命案检验中的鉴定文书

清代的鉴定文书不仅应包括通说中的尸格、尸图、骨格、骨图,而且还应该包括通详类上行文书、仵作甘结,它们各有侧重,相互验证.通详类文书中有介绍现场勘查、分析说明的作用,仵作甘结则体现了验证图格,防止作弊的用处.三者共同构成了一套精巧的表达体系.同时,清朝还在损伤描述要素上作了规范化的努力.     

THE BIG PICTURE: 2010 PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS TO THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CRIMINOLOGY*

Microanalysis holds sway over macroanalysis in contemporary criminology. All of criminology would be better off if greater attention were devoted to the big picture—the relationship between crime and the interplay of institutions in the social systems of whole societies. Microlevel researchers often assume that the reduction of individual criminal propensities leads ipso facto to reductions in aggregate crime rates, but the implied connection is illusive, has not been demonstrated, and is belied by the macroanalysis of crime. The perspectives, methods, and data of macrocriminology also need to be developed, however, if they are to advance our understanding of crime at the level of social systems. Emile Durkheim , Talcott Parsons , Karl Polanyi , and C. Wright Mills have contributed essential building blocks for the study of the big picture of crime. Improvements in the quality and timeliness of aggregate crime data, finally, are necessary to bolster the policy relevance of macrocriminology.     

Detection Rates, An International Comparison

Within Europe detection rates vary considerably. The differences are too large to be explained purely by the ability of the police to solve cases. In a study covering nine European countries many other factors (external, organisational and technical factors) influencing the detection rate are identified and the influence is empirically made plausible. Next, a comparison is made between the punishment rate and the detection rate. The fact that punishment rates are more stable is explained by the difference between a crime oriented and an offender oriented approach. Also a link is made with the discretionary powers of the police and prosecution.     

BUSINESS CYCLES AND STREET CRIME

This study examines the influence of business cycle fluctuations on street crime in the conceptual framework of Cantor and Land's(1985) seminal work distinguishing between opportunity and motivation effects. The analysis contributes to the literature three ways. First, we use cross‐section/time series data, which has several important advantages over simple time‐series or cross‐section data of previous studies. Second, it introduces a new and broader measure of business cycle conditions, one that more faithfully captures the logic of Cantor and Land's framework than previous measures do. Third, it focuses on the large decline in street crime of the 1990s, a central issue facing criminologists. Statistical models indicate that the strong economy of the 1990s reduced all four index property crimes and robbery by reducing criminal motivation. Business cycle growth produced no significant opportunity effect for any of the crimes studied.     

Two unusual cases of suicide by hanging

Two unusual cases of suicide by hanging are described, in the first case the deceased's left hand tied to the left thigh with the head and face covered by a heavy winter coat. In the second case the deceased's hands were tied behind his back.     

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF POLITICALLY POPULAR SENTENCING POLICY: THE HOMICIDE PROMOTING EFFECTS OF “THREE STRIKES” IN U.S. CITIES (1980–1999)*

Research Summary: Using panel data from 188 large cities during 1980–1999, we examined the possible homicide promoting effects of “three‐strikes” laws. Results indicated that cities in states with three‐strikes laws experienced short‐term increases in homicide rates of 13% to 14% and long‐term increases of 16% to 24% compared with cities in states without the laws. Policy Implications: Our results emphasize the fact that rarely are the possible unintended negative consequences of policy directives considered and point to the need for policy makers to consider both intended and unintended consequences of policy directives before the directives are codified.