Untangling Housing Cost and Transportation Interactions: The Location Affordability Index Model—Version 2 (LAIM2)

Abstract

It is now accepted that to have an understanding of housing affordability one must consider not only housing costs, but also the transportation costs associated with that household location. To make this information readily accessible to the public, the United States government created an Internet resource, the Location Affordability Portal – Version 2 (www.locationaffordability.info), to provide housing and transportation costs for every neighborhood in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Although the statistical model at the heart of this resource was designed for predictive accuracy, its design and parameter estimates can provide additional insights into the interaction of housing cost and transportation choices (and thus its cost). This study describes the development and explores the policy implications (and limitations) of this structural equations model, the Location Affordability Index Model – Version 2 (LAIM2).     

美国次贷危机对我国的启示

美国次级债券引发的风波已经波及全球,世界上主要的金融领域公司业绩产生了巨大损失,美国房地产市场也已开始走向衰落。深入探究此次危机,可以使我们更清楚地了解美国房地产泡沫从产生到破灭的全过程,使我们能够正确看待住房贷款市场的风险和金融创新的两面性,这些都对正处在“风口浪尖”的我国经济有着深刻的警示意义。     

转型时期的农民工住房问题——一种政策过程的视角

从政策过程的视角论述农民工住房问题纳入国家政策层面的可行性,可为解决农民工住房问题提供政策方向。本文从杜布林冲突的系统分析模型出发,建构“黑匣子”公共政策过程分析模型,并运用成本-收益分析、政府分权理论等,从政策执行的角度来检验政策方案。通过政策输入过程分析,识别形成农民工住房问题的实质因素,并分析农民工住房问题转变为政策问题的实践约束条件。通过对政策执行约束条件的分析得出：农民工住房政策的逻辑起点不是农民工住房质量,而是附加在户籍制上的城乡二元体制结构。研究认为农民工住房问题本身无法作为良好的政策问题纳入中央政府决策范围。建立农民工住房保障体系并允许农民工有条件地享受城市住房保障政策,或直接取消城乡二元结构,都不是解决农民工住房问题的最优政策,但前者作为渐进的决策途径,还是有助于缓解社会转型矛盾的;政府应当制定改革户籍制的长远目标,并在此框架下坚持改革和创新,逐步实现住房保障的城乡一体化。     

城市居民住房满意度及其影响因素

让居民对其住房感到满意是建设和谐社会的一项重要内容。与一般商品的消费不同,居民对其住房满意与否不仅涉及到住房的品质和价格,还涉及到与此相关的外部环境,如小区环境、物业管理以及配套设施等因素。基于"适当性-重要性加权"模型,本研究从一个较为全面的视角探讨了城镇居民住房满意度水平的影响因素。研究发现:(1)住房的面积、住房的品质、小区环境以及物业管理等因素对居民住房满意度有着显著的影响。不过,这些因素的影响不及居民的家庭成员人数和对经济负担的主观感受等因素,更不及住房相关的公共配套设施对居民住房满意度的影响;(2)公共配套设施因素中的次类因素,如基础教育、医疗卫生以及生活服务设施等,对居民的住房满意度都有显著的影响。     

The urban household in Russia and the Soviet Union, 1900–2000: Patterns of family formation in a turbulent century

Starting from census data on co-residence and household composition, the authors analyse principles of family organisation and family formation in twentieth-century urban Russia and the Soviet Union. The article uses an adapted version of the classification of households developed by Peter Laslett and Eugene Hammel to study variation in household structure for successive population censuses. Changes in this variation between cross-sections are explained with the help of additional quantitative and qualitative data and are linked to the fundamental demographic, social and economic shifts which took place in Russian society in the course of the twentieth century. The article finds a family system characterised by a tendency towards nuclear family formation, but incorporating a fairly stable element of household extension. Co-residence of three generations was both an answer to a perennial housing problem and offered important advantages in the sphere of childcare and care for the elderly. Variation and fluctuation in household structure are found to be most pronounced during the turbulent first half of the century. After a period of stability during the post-war decades of Soviet rule, post-Soviet transformations provoke new changes.     

Comment on Anthony Downs's “Have Housing Prices Risen Faster in Portland Than Elsewhere?”

Abstract

Forms of urban containment are found in more than a hundred jurisdictions across the United States. The lightning rod for the debate over urban containment is metropolitan Portland, OR, which has had an urban growth boundary for a generation. In the early 1990s, housing prices there soared, providing fodder to interests opposed to public interference in the private development market. Downs contributes to the debate by finding that over the long term, metropolitan Portland's housing prices are more in line with its West Coast and national contemporaries than not.

This comment first reviews some of the literature associating growth controls and growth management with housing price changes. I then examine how Oregon's and metropolitan Portland's particular institutional measures ameliorate potential price effects, offering lessons for containment programs everywhere. I caution that urban containment is here to stay and that the best way for development interests to protect themselves from undesirable outcomes is to advocate Portland‐style urban containment.     

Introduction to session 2: Magnitude of the crisis: The fiscal and human costs

Abstract

Many are looking to California and its state housing law for advice on how to deal with the affordability challenges affecting many metropolitan areas throughout the nation. It is thus critically important to go beyond the laws themselves and examine how state and municipal governance structure affects affordability, supply, and production. Some states give broad freedom to localities to develop policies that can potentially meet a range of goals and objectives. Others directly undermine those efforts by limiting local ability to pursue policy reforms while simultaneously failing to engage on the state level.

The redefinition of federalism on the national level, coupled with continued resistance to growth from some localities, establishes the state as at least an equal partner in dealing with housing supply and affordability issues. Understanding these distinctions is important, and the housing community needs to take them into account as it moves on the state front.     

Where the homeless come from: A study of the prior address distribution of families admitted to public shelters in New York City and Philadelphia

Abstract

This study investigates hypotheses regarding the association of census tract variables with the risk for homelessness. We used prior address information reported by families entering emergency shelters in two large U.S. cities to characterize the nature ofthat distribution.

Three dense clusters of homeless origins were found in Philadelphia and three in New York City, accounting for 67 percent and 61 percent of shelter admissions and revealing that homeless families’ prior addresses are more highly concentrated than the poverty distribution in both cities. The rate of shelter admission is strongly and positively related to the concentration of poor, African‐American, and female‐headed households with young children in a neighborhood. It is also correlated with fewer youth, elderly, and immigrants. Such areas have higher rates of unemployment and labor force nonpartici‐pation, more housing crowding, more abandonment, higher rates of vacancy, and higher rent‐to‐income ratios than other areas.     

Comment on Carl Abbott's “The Portland region: Where city and suburbs talk to each other—and often agree”

Abstract

The Portland, OR, area's urban growth boundary is an idea whose benefits to the region may depend on a willingness to expand the boundary occasionally. The parable contained in this comment suggests that the declared unwillingness to expand the urban growth boundary could have contributed to Portland's recent sudden increase in housing prices. It further suggests that an inflexible attitude toward the boundary could cause long‐run losses in employment in the Portland region, with few if any offsetting environmental benefits. Other regions should be aware of the potential drawbacks of installing such a boundary.     

Moving up versus moving out: Neighborhood effects in housing mobility programs

Abstract

This article suggests ways to better design, conduct, and interpret evaluations of the effects of housing mobility programs on participants, with emphasis on how to isolate neighborhood effects. It reviews earlier critiques of neighborhood effects research and discusses the key assumptions of housing mobility programs—about the benefits of affluent neighbors, the spatial organization of opportunity for the urban poor, and the meanings of “neighborhood” to residents, researchers, and policy makers.

Studying mobility contexts, especially in suburban areas, offers special challenges to researchers. More research is needed that looks at residents’ social ties and uses mixed‐methods approaches. Ethnographic data, in particular, would enhance the validity of the quantitative data that now dominate studies of neighborhood effects. Adding substantially to what we know about the processes or mechanisms—the “how” of neighborhood effects—mixed‐methods approaches would also make research much more useful to policy makers and program managers.