Is more institutional coup-proofing better or worse for regime protection? Evidence from the Philippines, 1986–1987

Is more institutional coup-proofing (ICP) better or worse for leaders’ chances of political survival? Are coups less or more likely to occur and succeed as a state’s military structure becomes increasingly divided into rival branches, organizations, and factions? The article evaluates two competing perspectives on the effectiveness of counterbalancing as a regime protection measure. Seeing strength in numbers and the prospects for divide-and-conquer tactics, most scholars take a more-is-better view, suggesting that higher levels of ICP should increase the effectiveness of counterbalancing. Some scholars, however, advance a more-is-worse perspective, suggesting that collective action problems confronting larger numbers of military organizations decrease the effectiveness of counterbalancing. Through a qualitative analysis of eight coup events in the Philippines during 1986–1987, strong evidence is found in support of the causal mechanisms and predicted outcomes for the more-is-better view.     

Elemental analysis of soil samples for forensic purposes by inductively coupled plasma spectrometry — precision considerations

Major and trace elemental composition provides a powerful basis for forensic comparison of soils, sediments and rocks. However, it is important that the potential ‘errors’ associated with the procedures are fully understood and quantified, and that standard protocols are applied for sample preparation and analysis. This paper describes such a standard procedure and reports results both for instrumental measurement precision (repeatability) and overall ‘method’ precision (reproducibility). Results obtained both for certified reference materials and example soils show that the instrumental measurement precision (defined by the coefficient of variation, CV) for most elements is better than 2–3%. When different solutions were prepared from the same sample powder, and from different sub-sample powders prepared from the same parent sample, the CV increased to c. 5–6% for many elements. The largest variation was found in results for certified reference materials generated from 23 instrument runs over an 18 month period (mean CV = c. 11%). Some elements were more variable than others. W was found to be the most variable and the elements V, Cr, Co, Cu, Ni and Pb also showed higher than average variability. SiO₂, CaO, Al₂O₃ and Fe₂O₃, Rb, Sr, La, Ce, Nd and Sm generally showed lower than average variability, and therefore provided the most reliable basis for inter-sample comparison. It is recommended that, whenever possible, samples relating to the same investigation should be analysed in the same sample run, or at least sequential runs.     

The determinants of fiscal transparency in Chinese city-level governments

ABSTRACT

The transparency of the fiscal performance of governments has attracted attention from researchers, policy-makers and practitioners around the world. This study examines the determinants of fiscal transparency in the city-level governments of China, which has become a key issue in the drive to modernise the Chinese state. Employing cross-sectional data from the 2017 Statistical Yearbooks published by the official statistical institutions and the 2017 Fiscal transparency report of city-level governments edited by the Tsinghua University, this study finds that economic development, economic openness, and dependence on transfer payments are associated with weaker fiscal transparency. Large cities, those with high levels of internet usage and cities higher up within the Chinese administrative hierarchy are associated with stronger fiscal transparency. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.     

Solving the security–democracy dilemma: the US foreign policy in Tunisia post-9/11

Abstract

Scholarly consensus postulates a sharp contrast exists between liberal values and realist interests in US foreign policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, which finds its expression in the ‘security–democracy’ dilemma.? This means the US rhetorical determination to abide by the values of a ‘liberal’ foreign policy is neutralised by the ‘realist’ priority of maintaining US strategic interests, which requires support for friendly authoritarian rulers. Scholarship tends to apply this reasoning indistinctly to the entire region, providing an encompassing framework of analysis for understanding US foreign policy, which is valid across time and space. This study challenges this theoretical assumption and argues that while the US might indeed have a comprehensive regional approach in the MENA, the resulting foreign policy follows country-based trajectories that respond to national specificities and the perceived implications for US strategic interests. Exploring US foreign policy in the MENA after 9/11, the article demonstrates that while the US emphasis on liberalism crumbled when faced with security issues, the US liberal approach to Tunisia unfolded more consistently. Although the US continued formal cooperation with Ben Ali’s regime, it empowered at the same time a coalition of democratic opponents, solving the security–democracy dilemma and positively influencing the Tunisian democratisation.     

Meiji Japan's China solution to Tokugawa Japan's China problem

The underlying concern of this article is with the function and purpose of the normative imaginary of ‘China’, Chūgoku (Zhongguo) or Chūka (Zhonghua) in the Japanese discourse up to and around the mid-nineteenth century; namely, how it was deployed to make sense of the historical situation facing the contemporaries amid the combined internal and external crises and how it structured the range of options available to them. To exemplify this, we first turn to the debate of the shape of the polity that straddled the critical decades of 1850s–1860s. The self-conscious restoration of a past political ideal was the ostensible justification of the revolutionary overhaul, but in terms of the models of polity, there existed very different versions and understandings of what past could or should be restored. In the classical conceptual language of politics, the choice was between the hōken and gunken model. While the year 1871 saw a closure that cast Meiji as a gunken revolution, the debate continued beyond and the shift of preferences from hōken to gunken needs to be explained. In arguing for Meiji as a ‘Chinese revolution’, we can further point to the surprising degree of overlap between the concerns of earlier Edo-period commentators and the actual factors of the revolution when it finally arrived. Lastly, the normative imaginary of China is shown to have served as the key mediating filter for processing and appropriating the West both before and after the Meiji revolution.     

Examining Dose–Response Relationships Between Childhood Victimization,Depression, Symptoms of Psychosis,and Substance Misuse for Incarcerated Women

The current study uses the dose–response model to examine the relationships between childhood victimization events and subsequent depression, symptoms of psychosis, and substance misuse in a sample of 230 randomly selected incarcerated women in the United States. Results on the frequency of victimization were mixed. In this sample, both frequency of physical abuse and frequency of sexual abuse significantly predicted current symptoms of psychosis, but only frequency of physical abuse significantly predicted substance misuse. Incarcerated women who experienced multivictimization were 5.7 times as likely to report depression, 4.2 times as likely to report current symptoms of psychosis, and 3.8 times as likely to meet criteria for a substance use disorder. Results indicate that adjusting prison-based interventions to address multivictimization may improve outcomes and reduce recidivism among this population.     

The Jewish population and family in the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth in the second half of the 18th century

The sources that can be employed to examine demographic aspects of the Jewish population and family in 18th-century Poland–Lithuania are sparse and mostly fiscal in origin. Since this source material has been preserved only for some periods and regions, few generalizations can be made. First, the authors have referred to the most comprehensive census that was carried out in 1791 by household in Cracow province (województwo krakowskie). It does not allow for detailed family reconstitution, however. Although extended/multiple family households might have been fairly common, the two-generational conjugal family unit seems to have prevailed, and no more than four nuclear families lived in one house. In addition, the age at first marriage was influenced only to a limited extent by the traditional practice of early marriage.     

Coming in from the Cold: Grenada and Cuba since 1983

Abstract

The Grenada Revolution’s radical course was stamped by the bold turn to Cuba in April 1979. Cuban commitment to Maurice Bishop’s regime was crucial to its consolidation. In 1983 counter-revolution and invasion ruptured Grenada–Cuba ties and damaged Havana’s relations with Caribbean Community states. Since the demise of the Cold War, Havana’s survival strategy has prioritised regional integration and cooperation in the Americas. In the Anglophone Caribbean, Grenada has been at the centre of this rapprochement since 1993. Despite Washington’s disapproval, Grenada champions expanded ties with socialist Cuba. The rekindled alliance brings tangible mutual benefits and validates the strategy of South–South cooperation advocated by Maurice Bishop’s People’s Revolutionary Government and New Jewel Movement.     

Perceptions,identities and interests in South–South cooperation: the cases of Chile,Venezuela and Brazil

The relevance acquired in recent years by South–South cooperation seems to be connected with deeper structural transformations occurring in the international system. However, the variety of cooperation models promoted by new providers in the South requires the identification of complementary factors to help explain current patterns. A set of socio-cognitive elements, related to each country’s perceptions, identities and interests, can yield greater understanding of the variety of South–South cooperation models. Such an approach is here applied to the cases of Chile, Venezuela and Brazil – three important providers from the South – in order to explore their different cooperation models.     

Causes of the Collapse of the USSR

The paper studies Russia's Ukraine policy since the Orange Revolution. Russia's policy toward its western neighbor has evolved from unhappy relations with Victor Yushchenko to rapprochement with Victor Yanukovich and then confrontation over the revolutionary power change in Kiev in February 2014. The paper argues that Vladimir Putin's actions following February revolution in Kiev demonstrate both change and continuity in Russia's foreign policy. Although these actions constituted a major escalation, relative to Russia's previous behavior toward Ukraine, the escalation of relations with Kiev also reflected a broader policy pattern of Russia's assertive relations with the Western nations adopted by the Kremlin since the mid-2000s. What made Russia's conflict with Ukraine possible, even inevitable, was the West's lack of recognition for Russia's values and interests in Eurasia, on the one hand, and the critically important role that Ukraine played in the Kremlin's foreign policy calculations, on the other. The paper provides an empirically grounded interpretation of Russia's changing policy that emphasizes Russia–Ukraine–West interaction and a mutually reinforcing dynamics of their misunderstanding. It also addresses four alternative explanations of Russia's Ukraine policy and discusses several dangers and possible solutions to the crisis.