论循证矫正效果评价机制的构建

评估/评价问题始终是现当代监狱发展的重要领域之一。没有对于矫正对象在刑事干预前后的准确评估/评价,我们根本不可能获得"何为有效"的重要信息。在现代统计科学、信息科学和实证主义的影响下,罪犯评估问题、社区矫正对象以及其他矫正对象的评估/评价一直是确保相关实务工作科学高效运作的基础。在循证矫正的构建和推行中,有必要明确评估/评价理论和机制的地位作用,以达到对矫正干预措施和矫正机制运作状况的充分了解,从而在符合"评估相关过程与业务"的原则下有序开展矫正实践工作。     

Historical perspective and better regulatory governance: An agenda for institutional reform

Compared to economics, sociology, political science, and law, the discipline of history has had a limited role in the wide‐ranging efforts to reconsider strategies of regulatory governance, especially inside regulatory institutions. This article explores how more sustained historical perspective might improve regulatory decisionmaking. We first survey how a set of American regulatory agencies currently rely on historical research and analysis, whether for the purposes of public relations or as a means of supporting policymaking. We then consider how regulatory agencies might draw on history more self‐consciously, more strategically, and to greater effect. Three areas stand out in this regard – the use of history to improve understanding of institutional culture; reliance on historical analysis to test the empirical plausibility of conceptual models that make assumptions about the likelihood of potential economic outcomes; and integration of historical research methods into program and policy evaluation.     

制度廉洁性评估的两种实践模式及其比较

制度廉洁性评估作为中国反腐倡廉建设的创新举措,在实践中形成了"经验式推进"和"标准化操作"两种实践性模式,两种模式都为完善制度廉洁性评估工作提供了可行性思路,也各具特色和优点,同时也存在着各自的局限性。推进和完善制度廉洁性评估有必要将两种实践性模式进行整合,以标准化操作模式为引导,建立制度廉洁性评估基础指标体系,以经验式推进模式为平台,建立制度廉洁性评估指导性案例库,通过制度廉洁性评估指导机制提升制度廉洁性评估的正向竞争性,促使制度廉洁性评估工作实现螺旋式上升和波浪式前进。     

西方宪法文化对我国的影响与启示简

在宪法和制度的意义上,我国似乎自古以来就缺乏建立和完善制度的能力.在宪法文化中,能力及力量的不平衡是权力作为解决冲突方式的前提与基础.而平等是制度运作的基本前提.西方宪法文化对我国宪法文化建设很有启发,向我们指明了制度经常是利益斗争和调和的产物,其产生需要建立在一定基本共识和共同观念之上,制度对宪法文化也有相应的反作用.因此,我们可以从宪法实施入手,并加强对宪法文化权利的保护宣扬我国宪法文化.     

Conflict Assessment in Energy Infrastructure Siting: Prospects for Consensus Building in the Northern Pass Transmission Line Project

As energy demand grows rapidly worldwide, power line infrastructure will continue to be a major development planning challenge. This study considers the environmental conflict that has arisen over a transnational transmission line project between Canada and the United States. A qualitative conflict assessment is presented to define the parameters for consensus that could prevent protracted litigation between stakeholders. Proactively designing a process to encourage consensus building during the early development phase remains the most critical determinant of compromise. In this article, we argue that in this case a consensus‐building effort could be feasible if certain design requirements were met, including gaining the participation of key stakeholders, paying attention to trust, and focusing on the issues specific to this transmission line rather than to a larger energy discussion. The research shows that despite potential pitfalls, reaching more widely accepted and ecologically sensitive solutions to environmental conflicts through participatory and collaborative approaches is possible and worth the effort.     

A Study of the Predictors of Persistence in Stalking Situations

Stalkers engaging in persistent campaigns of harassment have the potential to cause immense harm to their victims and themselves. Being able to estimate which stalkers are likely to persist longest is important to clinicians dealing with both perpetrators and victims. This study of 200 stalkers investigated characteristics of the stalkers and their behaviour that were associated with increased persistence. Logistic regression models were developed to predict low, moderate, and highly persistent stalking. The results supported previous research indicating that the type of prior relationship between stalker and victim is strongly associated with persistence, with prior acquaintances the most persistent, and strangers least. Being aged over 30, sending the victim unsolicited materials, and having an intimacy seeking or resentful motivation was also associated with greater persistence, as was the presence of psychosis.

Psychopathy and Stalking

We examined the association between psychopathy, assessed using the Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised: Screening Version (Hart et al., Manual for the psychopathy checklist screening version (PCL:SV), 1995), and stalking in 61 men convicted of stalking-related offenses. Psychopathic symptoms were rare, but their presence—especially that of affective deficit symptoms—was associated with victimization of casual acquaintances and with several risk factors from the Guidelines for Stalking Assessment and Management (SAM) (Kropp et al., Guidelines for stalking assessment and management, 2008a), including stalking in violation of supervision orders, degree of preoccupation with victims, and targeting of victims with limited access to external resources. The findings suggest that in spite of their rarity, psychopathic traits may be important in the assessment and management of stalking risk.

Can 14,737 women be wrong? A meta‐analysis of the LSI‐R and recidivism for female offenders*

Research Summary Over the past two decades, researchers have been increasingly interested in measuring the risk of offender recidivism as a means of advancing public safety and of directing treatment interventions. In this context, one instrument widely used in assessing offenders is the Level of Service Inventory‐Revised (LSI‐R). Recently, however, the LSI‐R has been criticized for being a male‐specific assessment instrument that is a weak predictor of criminal behavior in females. Through the use of meta‐analytic techniques, we assessed this assertion. A total of 27 effect sizes yielded an average r value of .35 ([confidence interval] CI = .34 to .36) for the relationship of the LSI‐R with recidivism for female offenders (N= 14,737). When available, we also made within‐sample comparisons based on gender. These comparisons produced effect sizes for males and females that were statistically similar. Policy Implications These results are consistent with those generated in previous research on the LSI‐R. They call into question prevailing critiques that the LSI‐R has predictive validity for male but not for female offenders. At this stage, it seems that corrections officials should be advised that the LSI‐R remains an important instrument for assessing all offenders as a prelude to the delivery of treatment services, especially those based on the principles of effective intervention. Critics should be encouraged, however, to construct and validate through research additional gender‐specific instruments that revise, if not rival, the LSI‐R.     

海洋工程对环境影响评价与司法鉴定

为确定污染源、污染范围和污染程度,鉴定民事责任诉讼请求与海洋工程建设项目所产生的环境影响之间有无因果关系,根据《海水水质标准》、《渔业水质标准》、《海洋沉积物质量》和《海洋生物质量》等国家标准对海洋工程建设项目所在的养殖海域水质、沉积物、生物体选点采样。实地勘察,进行环境监测和环境影响评价。结果表明,水质污染物、沉积物污染物．生物体污染物不是民事责任诉讼请求所述养殖贝类大量死亡的直接原因。司法鉴定结论：海洋工程建设项目施工现场．周围海域局部受到施工产生较小泥浆入海泥沙影响,靠近海洋工程建设项目施工现场的一定范围养殖贝类死亡与海洋工程建设项目施工之间有因果关系,依据水域污染事故渔业损失计算方法,评估养殖损失。     

Analyzing the Performance of Risk Assessment Instruments: A Response to Vrieze and Grove (2007)

In a recent article, Vrieze and Grove (Law Hum Behav, doi: 10.1007/s10979-007-9092-x , 2007) argue that, because of low recidivism base rates and limited predictive accuracy, an actuarial risk assessment instrument (ARAI) may produce decisions about sex offenders that are worse than simply predicting that no one will commit another sex offense. This article examines: (1) the construction and potential overfitting of ARAIs; (2) the meaning, value, and limitations of ROC areas; and (3) the relationship between the operating point that maximizes an ARAI's correct classifications and the legal criterion-"likely to reoffend"-used for sex offender designations. Contrary to what Vrieze and Grove suggest, ARAIs of modest accuracy yield probabilistic information that is more relevant to legal decision-making than just "betting the base rate."