Risk assessment vs real prediction: The prediction problem and public trust

Confusing risk assessment and the prediction of individual behavior has led to false claims which, if translated into juvenile court or adult sentencing policies (selective incapacitation, for example), may lead to further erosion in public confidence in the justice system. Considerable emphasis has been placed on the consequences of false positives in the literature and in this paper. The false negative has different but equally damaging effects because the impression may be given that increasing the severity of sanctions for selected serious offenders is the solution to juvenile delinquency and adult crime. Analysis of official police records for three birth cohorts from Racine, Wisconsin, reveals that, although high-risk groups produce a disproportionate share of the delinquent and criminal behavior recorded in police reports and juveniles in high-risk groups continue into adult crime disproportionately to others, serious juvenile offenders still account for only a portion of the serious offenses that will ultimately be committed by adults. Therefore, selective incapacitation of early offenders may take only a small bite out of crime. When referrals rather than police contacts were utilized as the predictor variable, there was little difference in predictive efficiency.     

Normal responses to sexually anatomically detailed dolls

The behaviors and verbalizations of normal, preschool age boys and girls during interactions with sexually anatomically detailed (SAD) dolls were examined. A structured, nonsuggestive interview with each child was videotaped, and five behaviors and five verbalizations were coded for each of five phases of the interview. A two-way ANOVA (gender × phase) showed that during those phases when the dolls were undressed, both boys and girls showed more sexual exploratory play, aggressive behavior which was nonsexual, and active avoidance. Across all phases, nonsexual aggression accounted for 31% of the boys' and 22% of the girls' total responses. Behavioral and verbal sexual exploratory play represented 42% of the boys' responses and 50% of the girls' responses. In contrast, sexually aggressive behavior accounted for only 1% and 2% of the boys' and girls' responses, respectively. Girls interacted with the dolls more than did boys. Additionally, girls demonstrated more affection to the dolls than did the boys, and boys displayed more anxiety with the dolls than did girls. Investigators should be cautious as to inferences about preschoolers' interactions with SAD dolls, especially interactions of a sexual or aggressive nature which do not clearly depict fondling or intercourse.     

积极探索与学分制相适应的学生管理模式

学分制的建立与完善在我国高校的改革与发展中具有重要意义。但学分制与我国原有学生管理体制有冲突，这成为学分制在一些高校未得到真正实施的一个重要原因。针对这一问题，一些高校在积极探索与学分制相适应的学生管理模式。目前主要出现了两种模式，一种是取消班级，实施导师负责制及导师导生制模式，另一种是保留班级，实行辅导员导师制模式。这两种模式分别适合不同类型的学校。各高校应根据自己的实际情况来选择适合自己的与学分制相配套的学生管理模式。     

高等院校考核工作探讨

考核在高等院校管理工作中起着越来越重要的作用,只有实行日常量化考核,规范考核制度,严格考核纪律,才能将考核与工资分配、职务晋升、奖金相挂钩,真正发挥考核的权威性。     

听证程序实效性问题研究——以环境影响评价制度为视角

在环境行政领域,环境影响评价法首次以法律形式规定听证程序.自圆明园湖底防渗工程听证程序后,环境影响评价听证程序逐渐被适用.但由于听证程序立法本身缺陷等原因,其未能发挥应有的程序作用.因此,改革环境听证程序、重新设计听证当事人的地位及权利成为扩大环境行政公众参与的方式之一.     

Resilience in Inner City Youth: Childhood Predictors of Occupational Status Across the Lifespan

The present prospective study has followed a cohort of inner city men from adolescence (14±2) until age 65. While previous studies of shorter duration have identified numerous childhood factors that powerfully influence outcomes in young adulthood, this study examined the effect of these well-documented prognostic factors on occupational status across the lifespan. Consistent with previous studies, childhood environmental protector factors and parental social class predicted occupational status at age 25 significantly, but showed progressively weaker prediction at ages 32, 47 and 65. Timely early childhood development proved over time to be a far more important predictor than childhood social environment in adulthood. Ana C. DiRago is a Psychology Ph.D. student in the Clinical Science and Psychopathology Research area. She is involved with the Minnesota Twin Family Study. Her research interests include resilience and behavioral genetics in mood and anxiety disorders. George E. Vaillant is a Professor at Harvard Medical School. He has spent the last 30 years as Director of the Study of Adult Development charting adult development and the recovery process of schizophrenia, heroin addiction, and alcoholism. George considers Dan Offer a friend and long distance teacher.     

我国遗产税开征探析

开征遗产税有利于增加国家财政收入、调节社会财富、维护国家利益和公民权益、完善我国的税制结构，因此在我国有必要开征遗产税。当前我国开征遗产税还面临一些困难，如纳税人纳税意识薄弱、相关部门协作配合欠缺、被继承人遗留的财产价值难以准确确定等。针对这些问题，我国应采取一些配套措施，包括提高纳税人主动纳税申报的意识，建立公正、独立、科学的财产评估制度及机构等。     

语言输出理论与英语写作教学

大学非英语专业教学普遍存在学生语言输出过少的现象,本文以语言输出理论为依据,提出强调英语写作教学以增加学生语言输出,促成语言知识的重构和程序化,从而增强学生的语言实际运用能力。并结合教学实践的基础,着重探讨了英语写作课堂教学中教师和学生的角色定位问题和形成性评价在英语写作教学中的运用机制。提出了相应的写作课堂的教学模式。