Turning off the Taps: The Termination of State Sponsorship

ABSTRACT

Why do some states terminate their sponsorship of rebel movements while others are persistent in their provision of support? In the past, most research on external support to insurgents has focused on why states choose to sponsor rebel groups and particularly how this affects conflict duration. However, we know little about the termination of such support. This is surprising given that support has been shown to make armed conflicts more intractable and tremendous efforts are made in condemning and sanctioning such behavior. This study constitutes the first large-N analysis of support termination, employing survival analysis on global data of state support to rebel movements between 1975–2009. Surprisingly, the findings indicate that only some of the factors that explain support provision can offer insights into its termination. In particular, support is more likely to be terminated when no ethnic kinship bonds exist between the rebel movement and the government of the supporting state. Many decisions to withdraw support also seem to coincide with the transition from the Cold War. Threats and sanctions from other states appear largely ineffective. The study contributes to our understanding of the international dimensions of civil war and the role and motives of third parties.     

Long-term monarchical survival in the Middle East: a configurational comparison, 1945–2012

The survival of eight monarchies during the “Arab Uprisings” has put centre stage the fundamental question about the durability of this subtype of authoritarian regime. Seen from a broader historical perspective, however, the idea that monarchies have an inherent advantage in retaining power is less evident: a number of authoritarian monarchies broke down and subsequently became republics (Egypt 1952, Iraq 1958, North Yemen 1962, Libya 1969, Iran 1979), while others survived (Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). To account for these divergent long-term pathways we systematically compare the 13 current and former Middle East monarchies. Using a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), we concentrate on five central explanatory factors derived from previous research – namely, external support, rent revenues, family participation, the monarch's claim to legitimate rule, and hard repression. Our findings highlight the existence of three broad pathways to monarchical survival – linchpin monarchies, like Jordan and Morocco, versus the dynastic Gulf monarchies – and also reveal a possible hybrid third pathway, one which shares linchpin characteristics, but relates to cases on the Arabian Peninsula (Oman and the historical Imamate in North Yemen).     

Party systems in Latin America: institutionalization,decay, and collapse,edited by Scott Mainwaring

Although coming of age under a totalitarian regime drastically reduces the chances of acquiring democratic values or supporting democracy, factors other than the formal nature of the political regime shape political values as well. The informal structure of the political regime, which consists of rules developed in political practice and economic and human development, may shape individual values and attitudes and produce different attitudes towards democracy in different totalitarian regimes. This article focuses on the effect of early socialization on the support for democracy among citizens who have been ruled under two different non-democratic regimes. We compare the dynamics in Spain and Romania during the post-totalitarian period with the aim of identifying how coming of age operated in these two different totalitarian regimes and how each type of non-democratic regime affected the legitimacy of the new democratic rule. Using survey data from various sources (Standard Eurobarometer, Central and Eastern Eurobarometer and Candidate Countries Eurobarometer) that allow both longitudinal and cross-sectional comparisons, we decompose the social change in support for democracy over the post-totalitarian period in both countries using cross-classified fixed effects models. The analyses demonstrate the different effects of socialization on support for democracy in these two different totalitarian contexts.     

Arts and Culture Indicators in Community Building: Project Update

The author questions the arts support system in post-Communist Romania, examining whether the cultural policies during 1990-2006 have contributed to the development of the arts sector, the enhancement of artistic creativity, and the independence of artists. His analysis focuses on the institutional framework and the financing mechanisms that support artists. The author argues that the institutional configurations and the collective mentalities that dominate the cultural sector and public policy have strongly influenced cultural policy in Romania. Along with the economic difficulties, the weighty legacy of the centralized authoritarian state and the paternalistic attitude that dominated for so long in Romanian history have acted as constraints on the public support for the arts and artists. The post-Communist cultural policy remains dependent on historical patterns and, despite some attempts of reform in the late 1990s, it is only recently that a noninterventionist policy and a more effective arts support system emerged.     

Providing eyewitnesses with initial retrieval support: what works at immediate and subsequent recall?

The effect of retrieval support on eyewitness recall was investigated in two experiments. Based on the outshining hypothesis, Experiment 1 tested whether retrieval support enhances witness performance (compared to free recall) especially when witnessing conditions are suboptimal (e.g., because witnesses were distracted during the crime). Eighty-eight participants watched a videotaped crime with either full or divided attention and subsequently received retrieval support with the Self-Administered Interview© (SAI) or completed a free recall (FR). One week later (Time 2 – T2) all participants completed a second FR. Unexpectedly, retrieval support did not lead to better memory performance than FR under divided attention conditions, suggesting that retrieval support is not effective to overcome adverse effects of divided attention. Moreover, presence of retrieval support at Time 1 (T1) had no effect on memory performance at T2. Experiment 2 (N = 81) tested the hypothesis that these T2-results were due to a reporting issue undermining the memory-preserving effect of T1-retrieval support by manipulating retrieval support (SAI vs. FR) at T1 and T2. As expected, T1-retrieval support led to increased accuracy at T2. Thus, the beneficial value of T1-retrieval support seems greatest with high-quality T2-interviews. Interviewers should consider this when planning a subsequent interview.     

Planning helps: The impact of release planning on subsequent re-entry experiences of child sex offenders

Abstract

Recent research has demonstrated that poor release planning is associated with sex offender recidivism; however, whether release planning correlates with actual re-entry experiences has not been investigated systematically. Accordingly, in the present study release planning was rated for 16 child sex offenders, and semi-structured interviews about re-entry experiences were conducted at one, three and six months following their release from prison. As expected, significant positive correlations were found between release planning and re-entry experiences across the follow-up period, indicating that higher-quality release planning is associated with more positive re-entry experiences. Accordingly, it can be assumed that re-entry experiences differ between recidivists and non-recidivists, and hence positive re-entry experiences contribute to a reduction in sex offender recidivism. The implications for the management of offender release, policy makers and society as a whole are discussed.     

The Public Legitimacy of the National Assembly for Wales

This article examines the public legitimacy of the National Assembly for Wales. Both the Assembly and the broader system of devolved government for Wales initially enjoyed very limited public support. It is shown that support for devolution in general has risen substantially, while some elements of public attitudes towards the Assembly itself now appear distinctly positive. However, it is also demonstrated that public legitimacy, defined as ‘diffuse support’ for the Assembly, remains limited. The article then examines what factors explain levels of diffuse support for the National Assembly. It is found that variation in such support is best accounted for by factors associated with ‘non-material consequentialism’: perceptions of the impact of the Assembly on the process of government. The conclusion assesses the implications of the findings for the National Assembly, as well as for the study of devolution and political institutions more generally.     

Abating the Consequences of Managerialism on the Forgotten Employees: The Issues of Support,Control, Coping,and Pay

With the widespread and continuing adoption of managerialism in the public sector, ignoring the impact of change on employees could prevent managerialism from achieving its goals. Subsequently, this study investigates the efficacy of an augmented demand-control-support (D-C-S) model in predicting three of the key employee outcomes in the context of organizational change—psychological health, job satisfaction, and organizational commitment. Analyses of a survey of 207 employees in the Australian public sector, a sector that has undergone, and continues to undergo, substantial change toward managerialism, found that the augmented D-C-S model explained a significant proportion of the employee outcomes in the public sector context. The most important variables were work-based social support and job control. Coping style and perceptions of work conditions, such as pay, were also significant. The augmented D-C-S model provides a useful, proven tool for managers operating within the contemporary public sector.     

"Connecting" and "Disconnecting" With Civic Life: Patterns of Internet Use and the Production of Social Capital

This article explores the relationship between Internet use and the individual-level production of social capital. To do so, the authors adopt a motivational perspective to distinguish among types of Internet use when examining the factors predicting civic engagement, interpersonal trust, and life contentment. The predictive power of new media use is then analyzed relative to key demographic, contextual, and traditional media use variables using the 1999 DDB Life Style Study. Although the size of associations is generally small, the data suggest that informational uses of the Internet are positively related to individual differences in the production of social capital, whereas social-recreational uses are negatively related to these civic indicators. Analyses within subsamples defined by generational age breaks further suggest that social capital production is related to Internet use among Generation X, while it is tied to television use among Baby Boomers and newspaper use among members of the Civic Generation. The possibility of life cycle and cohort effects is discussed.     

法律对道德支持的原因分析

法律和道德相互联系、相辅相成。法律与道德的共性为道德的法律支持提供可能性。道德仅靠自己所拥有的手段无法有效地解决本身所面对的一些道德问题,这使得法律支持道德成为必要且极具现实意义。