从治理组织选择理论的角度解读自愿连锁

作为连锁经营的三大组织形态之一的自愿连锁在我国的发展步伐正在加快,中小零售企业将自愿连锁作为应对实力强大的外资零售巨头和突飞猛进的本土大型连锁企业的主要途径。威廉姆森的组织形态选择理论对自愿连锁进行了深入分析,可为我国中小连锁企业发展自愿连锁提供思路与策略选择。     

What Drives the Selection of Political Information on Google? Tension Between Ideal Democracy and the Influence of Ranking

The emergence of the Internet has altered how individuals obtain information—this also applies to political information. Search engines have taken over the role of political information gatekeepers, thus becoming key players in democracy. However, surprisingly little is known about the role of search engines in the political information process, that is, whether they represent an opportunity or a threat to democracy. Through an online survey experiment, which mimicked a Google web interface, this study examines how Swiss citizens select political information on a political news event from a Google search results page. Although citizens consider textual cues from snippets, they are more likely to select sources of information from the top of a Google results page, regardless of the source. We discuss these findings from a democratic theory perspective.     

When Killers Become Victims: Diversionary War,Human Rights,and Strategic Target Selection

The diversionary theory largely focuses on the incentives leaders have to use force. However, little attention has been given to the characteristics that make for a good target. We argue that US presidents choose targets that repress human rights since they are the easiest to sell to international and domestic audiences. By targeting repressive states US presidents can justify their use of force by cloaking their motivation in the language of human rights, responding to calls for intervention, pointing to the failure of international actors and institutions to resolve these problems, and building upon emerging norms that allow for intervention in repressive states. Updating US Use of Force data, we empirically test and find support for our hypothesis that presidents target human rights abusers when they face trouble at home. This paper contributes to target selection process by offering a complete theory of diversionary conflict accounting for cost/benefit calculation of presidents. Moreover, we believe that our findings reveal human rights practices’ role in international conflict, as well.     

News Media Use and Political Engagement Among Adolescents: An Analysis of Virtuous Circles Using Panel Data

This study analyzes reinforcing spirals between news media use and two manifestations of political engagement: political interest and participation intention. Drawing on a three-wave panel study among adolescents, we test the Virtuous Circle Thesis (VCT) in both an online and an offline setting, by distinguishing between selection effects and media effects as key ingredients of the VCT. Overall, the findings lend mixed support to the general argument. While the relationship between specific forms of news media use and political interest appears to be driven primarily by selection effects, reciprocal relations were found mainly between television news and participation intention. The VCT assumption of reciprocal influences was supported most clearly when adolescents’ total news media use was considered. Taken together, virtuous circles appeared to operate rather similarly online and offline.     

目前我国宏观调控的目标、重点及其相关政策的选择

近年来我国经济发展的总体态势出现了一些新情况、新问题、政府宏观调控的目标、重点和相关政策也发生了很大变化。针对这种情况，本通过大量的实证分析，阐明了当前我国通货紧缩现象不会持续，结构性失业问题明显突出，经济增长速度必须适度；揭示了我国宏观调控的重点及其主要方面应该放在优化结构上，而不能一味追求扩大需求；系统阐述了与宏观调控目标和重点相配合的有关政策措施的主要内容。     

胡锦涛对社会公平正义的实现路径选择

胡锦涛同志的社会公平正义思想不是从观念到观念,而是基于现实社会经济基础上的一系列切实可行的政策措施,有着明确的现实路径。促进发展、建设和创新制度、树立公正理念、营造社会环境、改善党的领导是胡锦涛同志社会公平正义的实现路径。     

The effects of base rate and cutoff point choice on commonly used measures of association and accuracy in recidivism research

Several measures of association and accuracy commonly used in the recidivism literature are examined for their sensitivity to variations in the proportion observed to recidivate (the base rate) and in the proportion selected for classification as recidivists (selection ratio). Logistic regression models are employed on a sample of 11,749 convicted offenders to generate predicted probabilities of four recidivism criteria varying in base rates from 0.06 to 0.48. Cutoff point selections from 0.1 to 0.9 show the effects of cutoff point changes on the following commonly used measures of association and accuracy: RIOC (relative improvement over chance), MCR (mean cost rating), Φ, γ, PRE (proportion reduction in error), and percentage correct. While all these statistics vary across base rate and cutoff points, some vary more than others: RIOC varies across cutoff points more than MCR, MCR more than Φ, and Φ more than γ. Researchers comparing such statistics across studies need be wary of the dangers of ignoring such variation.     

“刑官”的知识结构解析——当代中国法律人职业化的历史透视(二)

知识在职业群体的界定中具有特别重要的意义 ,对特定群体的知识结构的分析 ,不仅可以帮助我们认识群体生活于其间的社会和制度的特性 ,也可以使我们深刻的理解群体的功能和作用。这是研究中国古代刑官知识结构和籍此探索刑官文化在现代延传的一般性前提。探寻刑官的知识结构 ,可以从三个角度出发 :其一是刑官任官前的一般知识储备 ,这可以从科举考试的科目及内容出发 ;其二是刑官行使职权所需要的专业性知识 ,这可以从国家对各级刑官制度化的选任和考课的基本要求来分析 ;其三是刑官总体的知识取向 ,这可以从国家和刑官本人如何消解司法风险来分析。研究结果提醒我们 ,强调法律人的道德责任以及加大司法风险的程度 ,并不必然有利于职业群体的形成 ,甚至可能成为我们从知识的专门性出发所进行的专业化努力的障碍。     

美国宪法视野中的校园陪审团制度研究

陪审团制度作为美国司法制度的重要组成部分发挥着重要作用。在斯坦福大学《学生司法宪章》中，陪审团制度作为校园司法制度的核心，发挥着实践民主，实现公平的重要作用，它从校园陪审团的设立、产生程序、工作方式等方面保证了宪法规定的公民权利的实现，不仅使受指控学生得到公正审理，还为大家展现了美国校园民主政治的架构，提供了了解美国社会现象的窗口。     

TWENTY‐FIRST CENTURY PINK OR BLUE: HOW SEX SELECTION TECHNOLOGY FACILITATES GENDERCIDE AND WHAT WE CAN DO ABOUT IT

In the midst of a genetic revolution in medicine, Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) has become a well‐established technique to help infertile women achieve pregnancy. But many women are now turning to ART not just to circumvent infertility, but consciously to shape their families by determining the sex of their children. Many patriarchal cultures have a gender preference for males and to date have used technological advances in reproductive medicine to predetermine the sex of the child being born. Women have sought sex‐selective abortions, where the pregnancy was being terminated solely on the basis of the sex of the unborn fetus. The combination of ART advances and gender preference has led to the disappearance of at least 100 million girls from the world's population leading to a mass gendercide. This article examines the societal impact of unbalanced gender ratios and the need to regulate sex selection to avoid nations of bachelors.