Political competition and foreign policy power sharing

In this essay I examine the intersection of domestic and international politics in the formation and conduct of foreign policy. 1 develop a three‐actor model that allows us to specify the incentives for power sharing under different assumptions about the distribution of preferences and capabilities between a government, a domestic opposition, and a foreign state. The model generates several interesting hypotheses about the interaction of policy goals and the willingness of actors to share power. In particular, I show that under certain conditions there are important asymmetries whereby doves may be more willing to share power than hawks. Importantly, this willingness is endogenous to the model and comes from the alignment of preferences in the policy space, rather than from an a priori value for the democratization of foreign policy making. The model also suggests several hypotheses about the circumstances under which states have incentives to meddle in the foreign policy processes of other states.     

Estimating between‐ and within‐cluster covariate effects,with an application to models of international disputes

Students of international politics often use data in which the covariates vary both within and across units of observation. This is particularly true for dyadic data, which has come to dominate quantitative studies of international conflict, but is also a concern in any work involving a time‐series cross‐sectional component. Standard regression methods treat both types of covariates as equivalent with respect to their influence on the dependent variable, ignoring possible differences between cross‐dyad and within‐dyad effects. Here, I discuss the potential pitfalls of this approach, and show how between‐ and within‐dyad effects can be separated and estimated. I then illustrate the approach in the context of a logistic regression, using data on international disputes.     

The tyranny of distance: Redefining relevant dyads

A variety of definitions of “crisis” plague the study of international crisis. The purpose of the paper is to demonstrate the reasons for the divergence and a possible solution to the problem.

Definitions of “crisis” tend to incorporate a variety of elements. Some focus on the micro‐level of decisionmakers in particular countries; others look at the macro‐level of international system change; still other definitions are multi‐level, incorporating both micro‐ and macro‐components. A second set of differences is rooted in metaphysical assumptions. Some definitions look at “crisis” as something recognized by the mind of the individual, a perceptual process that is basically mental; other definitions, which tend to equate “crisis” with “stress,” assume that “crisis” is a physical phenomenon that can be measured by information flows, physiological tensions, or other objective observable behavior. A dualist approach insists that “crisis” is simultaneously physical and nonphysical is also evident in the literature. A third aspect of “crisis” definitions is whether the researcher seeks to stipulate an arbitrary meaning for the term on the basis of supposed self‐evident logic or whether data are collected prior to an effort to define the term; this is the familiar distinction between rationalism and empiricism, with facet theory as an approach that combines elements of both approaches.

Various approaches attempt to test theories of “crisis” with definitions determined by their metaphysical foundations. The models identified are as follows: hostile interaction, individual stress, physiological overload, organizational response, and cost calculation. Findings based on various empirical tests of the theories show that there is very little agreement in the literature on variables associated with “crisis”; more often than not, if a variable is linked with “crisis” positively in one study, the same variable is either linked negatively or has no correlation with “crisis” in a second study. The source of the empirical divergence may be that the various studies sample different cases—or differing definitions may account for the lack of consensus in the field.

The paper concludes by urging that research on international crisis should be absorbed into larger theoretical concerns that focus on the objectives motivating the studies, as this appears to be one way to maintain definitional uniformity. Studies on crisis anticipation and crisis management should be viewed as efforts at war prevention. Studies on crisis management, which aim to reduce foreign policy fiascoes should be conceived in terms of foreign policy management. Findings of such studies can then be appraised in terms of the goals they seek.     

Empowering Students to Create and Claim Value through the Thomas–Kilmann Conflict Mode Instrument

In a world of problem‐solving lawyering, principled negotiation, and integrative bargaining, to describe a negotiation as “distributional” may strike some as heretical. Still, we disserve our students if we ignore distributional bargaining altogether. Unfortunately, many law students who are drawn to negotiation classes bring with them a fundamental discomfort with claiming value. Contrary to the stereotypes that attribute aggression and “sharp practices” to lawyers, many law students struggle to become more assertive. The Thomas–Kilmann Conflict Mode Instrument (TKI) is one tool that I have found can help raise students' awareness of, and comfort with, the reflexive responses to conflict that can impede their attempts to claim as well as create value in negotiation. The insights students gain from taking the TKI can be quickly put to use in the next negotiation role play. Although it may help students realize their dominant response to conflict, the TKI highlights that no single approach to negotiation is always best. Thus, the TKI can both encourage the reticent to claim more value in negotiation and suppress the seemingly insatiable appetites for value claiming that drive other students. When administering the TKI, I encourage students to learn at least four major lessons:

• 1 A negotiator has a choice in resolving the dilemma between value claiming and value creating. We are not just stuck with our reflexes.
• 2 Still, it is good to know what our reflexive response to conflict is likely to be so that we are more mindful of the choices as we make them.
• 3 Departing from reflexes requires energy: preparation, planning, mindfulness, and conscious effort.
• 4 Adaptability is desirable. A well‐integrated negotiator might move from one TKI “type” to another as a negotiation progresses.

In this article, I seek to give a very brief overview of the ways I have used the TKI to convey these lessons, increasing students' comfort with, and management of, value claiming. To this end, the article will describe the TKI, explain how I administer and debrief the students' encounter with it, and point out some potential pitfalls of this process.     

ASSESSING AND EXPLAINING MISPERCEPTIONS OF PEER DELINQUENCY*

Peer delinquency is a robust correlate of delinquent and criminal behavior. However, debate continues to surround the proper measurement of peer delinquency. Recent research suggests that some respondents are likely to misrepresent their peers’ involvement in delinquency when asked in survey questionnaires, drawing into question the traditional (i.e., perceptual) measurement of peer delinquency. Research also has shown that direct measures of peer delinquency (e.g., measures obtained via networking methods such as Add Health), as compared with perceptual measures, differentially correlate with key theoretical variables (e.g., respondent delinquency and respondent self‐control), raising the question of whether misperception of peer delinquency is systematic and can be predicted. Almost no research, however, has focused on this issue. This study, therefore, provides detailed information on respondents’ misperceptions of peer behavior and investigates whether individual characteristics, the amount of time spent with peers, and peer network properties predict these misperceptions. Findings indicated that 1) some individuals—to varying degrees—misperceived the delinquent behavior of their peers; 2) self‐control and self‐reported delinquency predicted misperception; 3) respondents occupying densely populated peer networks were less likely to misperceive their peers’ delinquent involvement; and 4) peers who occupy networks in which individuals spend a lot of time together were more likely to misperceive peer delinquency. Implications are discussed.     

Availability of target odor compounds from seized ecstasy tablets for canine detection

The aim of this study was to compare seized samples of 3,4-methylenedioxy-N-methylamphetamine (MDMA) pills, used to train law enforcement detection canine teams, to determine what differences exist in the chemical makeup and headspace odor and their effect on detectability. MDMA solutions were analyzed by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Analysis of these samples showed a wide variance of MDMA (8-25%). Headspace SPME-GC/MS analysis showed that several compounds such as 3,4-methylenedioxyphenylacetone and 1-(3,4-methylenedioxyphenyl)-2-propanol are common among these MDMA samples regardless of starting compound and synthesis procedure. However, differences, such as the level of the various methylenedioxy starting compounds, were shown to affect the overall outcome of canine detection, indicating the need for more than one MDMA training aid. Combinations of compounds such as the primary odor piperonal in conjunction with a secondary compound such as MDP-2-OH or isosafrole are recommended to maximize detection of different illicit MDMA samples.     

Analysis and discrimination of electrical tapes: part II. Backings

The backings of 90 black electrical tapes were analyzed to evaluate the chemical components of these films, the ability of individual techniques to discriminate samples, and the ability of the techniques combined to distinguish samples. The techniques utilized and their respective discrimination results were stereomicroscopy and physical measurements, to include observation of surface features of the backing, width, and thickness measurements (c. 64%); Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) using a microscope accessory (c. 83%); pyrolysis-gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (Py-GC/MS; c. 81%); and scanning electron microscopy/energy-dispersive spectroscopy (SEM/EDS; c. 87%). Ninety-four percent of the backings were discriminated through this combination of analytical methods. Finally, evaluating these results in conjunction with previously published data on the analysis of the adhesives from the same set of electrical tapes provided an overall discrimination of nearly 96%.     

Comparisons of familial DNA database searching strategies

The current familial searching strategies are generally based on either Identity-By-State (IBS) (i.e., number of shared alleles) or likelihood ratio (i.e., kinship index [KI]) assessments. In this study, the expected IBS match probabilities given relationships and the logic of the likelihood ratio method were addressed. Further, the false-positive and false-negative rates of the strategies were compared analytically or by simulations using Caucasian population data of the 13 CODIS Short Tandem Repeat (STR). IBS ≥ 15, IBS ≥ 16, KI ≥ 1000, or KI ≥ 10,000 were found to be good thresholds for balancing false-positive and false-negative rates. IBS ≥ 17 and/or KI ≥ 1,000,000 can exclude the majority of candidate profiles in the database, either related or not, and may be an initial screening option if a small candidate list is desired. Polices combining both IBS and KI can provide higher accuracy. Typing additional STRs can provide better searching performance, and lineage markers can be extremely useful for reducing false rates.     

Spheno-occipital synchondrosis fusion in modern Americans

This study examines spheno-occipital synchondrosis fusion in the modern American population and presents age ranges for forensic use. The sample includes 162 modern individuals aged 5-25 years. The basilar synchondrosis was scored as open, closing, or closed via direct inspection of the ectocranial site of the suture. Transition analysis was used to determine the average ages at which an individual transitions from unfused to fusing and from fusing to fused. The maximum likelihood estimates from the transition analysis indicate that females are most likely to transition from open to closing at 11.4 years and males at 16.5 years. Females transition from closing to closed at 13.7 years and males at 17.4 years. The probability distributions associated with these maximum likelihood estimates were used to derive age ranges for age estimation purposes. These results reflect sexual dimorphism in basilar synchondrosis fusion and agree approximately with average age at pubertal onset.