The Suicide Mortality Rates between 1997–1998 and 2000–2001 in Nantou County of Taiwan Following the Earthquake of September 21 in 1999

Abstract:  The paper aims to show the different suicide mortality rate between 1997–1998 and 2000–2001 in Nantou County of Taiwan with earthquake on September 21 (often referred to as the "9-21 earthquake") in 1999. In additional, it also identifies the preventive strategies for the high-risk suicide population. The age-standardized mortality rates for suicide in Nantou County were calculated for the years 1997–1998 and 2000–2001. The suicide standardized mortality ratio (SMR for townships in Nantou were calculated by "type of township" as the standard rate). There is a statistically significant difference in male suicide rates for the years prior to the earthquake (1997–1998) when pooled and compared to the suicide rates for the years after the earthquake (2000–2001). The rate for four age groups (under 25, 25–44, 45–64, 65 and above) all increased, yet all but one (the group of age 45–64) was not statistically significant. The male SMR has slightly increased after the 9-21 earthquake. Yet there are no statistical significances in most townships, except in Kaohsiung and Puli after the 9-21 earthquake. The Kaohsiung SMRs were 1.36 (95% CI: 0.54–2.80) before the earthquake (1997–1998) and 2.01 (95% CI: 1.04–3.52) after the earthquake (2000–2001). The SMRs before and after the earthquake in the Puli Township were 1.51 (95% CI: 0.95–2.29) to 1.56 (95% CI: 1.03–2.27). This study suggests that monitoring high-risk population, especially males or 45–64 years of age who experienced the highest statistically significant suicide rate in this study. The study provides support for providing both the psychological restoration program and, to the extent feasible, financial support for the unemployed as useful public health strategies for suicide prevention in Taiwan.     

FDI对我国市场结构的影响——基于跨国公司和东道国之间的博弈分析

本文通过构建跨国公司与本土企业的产量博弈模型，分析了FDI对东道国市场结构影响的机理，并运用相关结论解释了跨国公司的进入对中国市场结构的影响，最后提出了若干政策建议。     

Measuring the validity and reliability of forensic likelihood-ratio systems

There has been a great deal of concern recently about validity and reliability in forensic science. This paper reviews for a broad target audience metrics of validity and reliability (accuracy and precision) which have been applied in forensic voice comparison and which are potentially applicable in other branches of forensic science. The metric of validity is the log likelihood-ratio cost (C_llr), and the metric of reliability is an empirical estimate of credible intervals. A revised procedure for the calculation of credible intervals is introduced.     

Automatic Comparison and Evaluation of Impressions Left by a Firearm on Fired Cartridge Cases

Recent years have been characterized by a series of publications in the field of firearms investigation questioning the reliability and objectivity of such examination. This research investigates new solutions to decrease the subjective component affecting the evaluation that follows the comparison of impressions left by a firearm on the surface of spent cartridge cases. An automatic comparison system based on 3D measurements has been developed and coupled to a bivariate evaluative model allowing assigning likelihood ratios. Based on a dataset of 79 pistols (all SIG Sauer 9 mm Luger caliber), the system shows a very high discriminating power and the LRs that it provides are very indicative of the true state under both the prosecution and the defense propositions. For example, likelihood ratios exceeding a billion are predominantly obtained when impressions originating from the same source are compared. The system is also characterized by relatively low rates (≤1%) of misleading evidence depending on the firearm considered.     

Use of 2D:4D Digit Ratios to Determine Sex

Second to fourth digit ratios (2D:4D) are sexually dimorphic in human hands and established by the 13th gestational week. Application of 2D:4D for determining sex in living individuals by Kanchan et al. (Forensic Sci Int, 181, 2008, 53.e1) produced classification rates of 80% for males and 74–78% for females. Few studies have explored the use of 2D:4D for sexing skeletal remains. We test estimated finger lengths, phalanx lengths, and 2D:4D derived from hand bones for determining sex. Maximum phalanx length was collected using a mini‐osteometric board from 451 individuals of known age, sex, and ancestry in four skeletal collections. Logistic regression of 2nd and 4th digit finger and phalanx lengths produced classification rates greater than 80%. Digit ratios, however, failed to reach classification rates greater than 59%. Our results support those of Voracek (Forensic Sci Int, 185, 2009, e29) and suggest that 2D:4D may be population‐specific and thus inappropriate for universal application as a means of determining sex.     

The impact of the principles of evidence interpretation on the structure and content of statements

The Forensic Science Service (FSS) has devoted appreciable effort to developing the application of the principles of evidence interpretation. Much of the work has been reported in previous papers in this journal, in particular those that develop a model for Case Assessment and Interpretation (CAI). The principles of interpretation are restated and the implications for structure and content of statements are described.     

Comparison of bulk and compound-specific δ13C isotope ratio analyses for the discrimination between cannabis samples

Five marijuana samples were compared using bulk isotope analysis compound-specific isotope ratio analysis of the extracted cannabinoids. Owing to the age of our cannabis samples, four of the five samples were compared using the isotope ratios of cannabinol (CBN), a stable degradation product of Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC). Bulk δ(13)C isotope analysis discriminated between all five samples at the 95% confidence level. Compound-specific δ(13)C isotope analysis could not distinguish between one pair of the five samples at the 95% confidence level. All the measured cannabinoids showed significant depletion in (13)C relative to bulk isotope values; the isotope ratios for THC, CBN, and cannabidiol were on average 1.6‰, 1.7‰, and 2.2‰ more negative than the bulk values, respectively. A more detailed investigation needs to be conducted to assess the degree fractionation between the different cannabinoids, especially after aging.     

鉴定人出庭作证新论——兼论新《刑事诉讼法》的相关条款

近年来,刑事诉讼中诸多冤假错案暴露出有瑕疵的鉴定意见造成法官对案件事实认定错误的问题,使鉴定人不出庭现象备受指摘,各方要求鉴定人出庭的呼声不绝于耳。然而,鉴定人出庭作证必须以案件具备其出庭必要性为前提,在鉴定意见质证机制尚未完善之前,如若忽视质证效果而一味强调鉴定人出庭,无异于叶公好龙。深刻洞察制约鉴定人出庭之因素,理性评估出庭作证之效果,客观认识质证功能虚化之成因,才能有助于鉴定意见的审查判断,科学构建鉴定人出庭作证的机制。     

Blood versus bone marrow pentobarbital concentrations

Postmortem pentobarbital levels in rabbit heart blood and bone marrow were determined and compared. The average ratio of femur marrow/blood pentobarbital concentrations in 24 rabbits was 1.06 +/- 0.05. The average percent difference between actual plasma pentobarbital concentrations and calculated plasma pentobarbital concentrations was 5.82 +/- 1.96. Concentrations were determined by gas chromatography of extracted, derivatized pentobarbital.