The unreliability of using a urine ethanol concentration to predict a blood ethanol concentration

Of approximately 5,000 forensic cases with a positive ethanol result, over 1,000 were available in which both blood and urine were present for comparison of ethanol content. Data were examined for calculation of the urine to blood ethanol concentration ratio, with the intent of evaluating the validity of predicting a blood ethanol level given a urine ethanol level. The overall urine to blood ethanol concentration ratio was 1.57:1 with a range of 0.7 to 21.0:1. The extremely wide range of values implies that a large degree of error would be introduced if a mean ratio was used when predicting a blood ethanol level from a urine ethanol level.     

Distinguishing between the effects of swing ratio and bias on outcomes in the US Electoral College, 1900–1992

We review a number of different statistical techniques for creating seats-votes curves and apply the most reliable of these to estimate seats-votes relationships in the US electoral college 1900–1992. We consider the now rejected claim, once firmly established as part of the common journalistic and even academic wisdom, that the US Electoral College has recently been strongly biased in favor of Republicans, and show that this claim was based largely on a confusion between bias (asymmetry in the electoral college gains earned by the votes received by different parties or candidates) and swing ratio (responsiveness of change in electoral college seat share to change in popular vote). Although there has been substantial bias during this century in the way the electoral college translates Democratic and Republican votes into electoral college seats, and for the earlier party of this century (from 1900 to 1940) that bias has been in favor of Republicans, to explain why many recent electoral college majorities have been so lopsided we must look not at bias but at swing ratio.We show that the swing ratio in the electoral college has generally been increasing since 1900, rising from an average value (1900–1924) around three to an average value (1976–1992) ranging from about five to about eight, depending upon which of the various statistical estimation techniques we use. Thus, for every one point vote share gain above 50 per cent, a winning presidential candidate in a two-candidate competition can now expect to pick up somewhere between a 5 percentage point and an 8 percentage point increase in electoral college seats—giving the illusion of mandate even for relatively close contests and frequently creating apparent landslides. We show that this historical rise in swing ratio in presidential elections is due almost entirely to changes in the responsiveness of outcomes in the US South as the influence of the Civil War slowly (very slowly) erodes. Drawing on the analysis of the determinants of bias and of swing ratio in the House of Representatives in Brady and Grofman (1991b), we show that the increases in electoral college swing can be accounted for by the nationalization of presidential competition as signaled by the decrease over time in the standard deviation of Democratic share of the two-party vote across states, and that changes in bias can be linked to changes in the magnitude of differences between the mean and the median of that distribution.     

人口出生性别比例问题研究

人口性别比例,关系人口安全乃至国家安全。人口普查资料显示,我国人口出生性别比已高达117,偏离正常标准10个百分点,其危害不仅涉及眼前,甚至会危及子孙。政府部门在矫正人口出生性别比方面要在制度安排、政策扶持、监管惩处方面综合治理,单凭宣传教育是不够的。     

高校发展学生党员应处理好数量与质量的关系

发展高校学生党员是高校学生党建工作的重中之重。文章认为，大学生党员比例是保持大学生党员数量与质量处于动态平衡的关键因素，大学生党员的适当比例应在10％左右。因此，高校发展党员应坚持宁缺毋滥、“不在乎多，而在乎精”的原则，在高等教育坚持走大众化道路的同时发展大学生党员应坚持走精英化的道路。     

生育政策与出生性别比差异分析

本文把性别选择和生育政策作为影响出生性别比的两个主要因素,通过定量的方式分析了性别选择和生育政策各自对出生性别比偏高的影响。研究表明,第二胎成功性别选择率越高,出生性别比就越偏高,两种生育政策下的出生性别比绝对差值就越大,相对差值较稳定。当性别选择率一定时,出生性别比本身值越高,两种生育政策下的出生性别比绝对差值就越大,相对差值也较稳定。     

治理出生性别比偏高:公共政策的赋权性分析——中国和韩国国家层面公共政策的比较

本文介绍了赋权的理念,阐述了赋权性别政策的概念及其特点,通过对中韩推动性别平等,治理出生性别比偏高的公共政策进行赋权性分析以及国家层面执行机制的比较,指出,增强政策的赋权性是值得中国重视的政策创新点。作者认为,应基于中国国情深刻理解赋权妇女的理念,并将其融入法律政策及实施过程之中,探索适合中国国情的赋权途径,并提出了相关的建议。     

微量物证匹配的描述:一个法律视角

本文描述了用于规范法庭科学证言的英美证据法，这些法庭科学证言主要是解释微量物证之匹配的重要性。本文根据即将出版的维基百科全书法庭科学卷部分改编。     

Stable isotope analysis of human hair and nail samples: the effects of storage on samples

When submitting samples for analysis, maintaining sample integrity is essential. Appropriate packaging must be used to prevent damage, contamination or loss of sample. This is particularly important for stable isotope analysis by isotope ratio mass spectrometry as this technique is capable of detecting subtle differences in isotopic composition with great precision. In a novel study, scalp hair and fingernail samples were placed in five different types of packaging, routinely used in forensic laboratories and stored for 6 weeks and 6 months. Samples were subsequently cleaned and submitted for (13)C/(12)C, (15)N/(14)N, (2)H/(1)H and (18)O/(16)O analysis. Results from (13)C analysis indicate that type of packaging can cause slight changes in (13)C abundance over time. Differences were noted in the (15)N isotope signatures of both hair and nail samples after 6-week storage, but not after 6 months. This apparent discrepancy could be a result of the packaging not being properly sealed in the 6 weeks study. Fewer differences were noted when analyzing samples for (2)H and (18)O abundance.     

Stable isotope analysis of white paints and likelihood ratios

Architectural paints are commonly found as trace evidence at scenes of crime. Currently the most widely used technique for the analysis of architectural paints is Fourier Transformed Infra-Red Spectroscopy (FTIR). There are, however, limitations to the forensic analysis of white paints, and the ability to discriminate between samples.Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) has been investigated as a potential tool for the analysis of architectural white paints, where no preparation of samples prior to analysis is required. When stable isotope profiles (SIPs) are compared, there appears to be no relationship between paints from the same manufacturer, or between paints of the same type. Unlike existing techniques, IRMS does not differentiate resin samples solely on the basis of modifier or oil-type, but exploits additional factors linked to samples such as geo-location where oils added to alkyd formulations were grown. In combination with the use of likelihood ratios, IRMS shows potential, with a false positive rate of 2.6% from a total of 1275 comparisons.     

The Stable Isotope Ratios of Marijuana. II. Strontium Isotopes Relate to Geographic Origin

Abstract:  Effectively addressing marijuana trade is aided by understanding marijuana geographic sources. We analyzed the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr of marijuana samples grown in 79 counties across the United States to determine if a primary geologic signal is retained in marijuana, which could therefore be useful for geographic sourcing. The marijuana results were compared with modeled bedrock ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values based on ⁸⁷Rb decay rates and a generalized geologic map of the U.S.A. A significant correlation was observed between marijuana ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and modeled bedrock ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr. Although values clustered near the 1:1 relationship, there was a predominance of positive anomalies, perhaps attributable to carbonate bedrock. A small number of negative anomalies were also observed, which were generally associated with granitic bedrocks. These results suggest that strontium isotopes in marijuana record the geographic origins of marijuana, and that refinement of the base strontium map (or strontium isoscape) and improved understanding of other strontium sources would be productive.