民生风险理论与食品安全的刑法规制

民生风险是指包括生产、生活在内的社会活动对民生可能造成危害的风险,规制民生风险的刑法就叫做民生刑法。食品安全问题是民生风险的一项重要内容,包括食品生产制造(包括储存、运输等所有"食品入口"之前的环节)时难以避免的"工艺风险"、对食材配料定位不断变化的"认识风险"及生产和配料中的"人为错误"。其中"人为错误"是行为人能够或应该认识到并加以控制的对食品安全的侵害。而工艺风险和认识风险因难于预测、不易避免,其刑法适用尚待进一步探究,而不能简单地引入"风险"观念,通过加大打击力度、增设新罪来解决。民生风险和民生刑法的概念就避免了"风险"理论对刑法基本底线的违背,较好地把握了理论节度,成为规制食品安全较为合适的刑法指导性理念。     

Automatic Comparison and Evaluation of Impressions Left by a Firearm on Fired Cartridge Cases

Recent years have been characterized by a series of publications in the field of firearms investigation questioning the reliability and objectivity of such examination. This research investigates new solutions to decrease the subjective component affecting the evaluation that follows the comparison of impressions left by a firearm on the surface of spent cartridge cases. An automatic comparison system based on 3D measurements has been developed and coupled to a bivariate evaluative model allowing assigning likelihood ratios. Based on a dataset of 79 pistols (all SIG Sauer 9 mm Luger caliber), the system shows a very high discriminating power and the LRs that it provides are very indicative of the true state under both the prosecution and the defense propositions. For example, likelihood ratios exceeding a billion are predominantly obtained when impressions originating from the same source are compared. The system is also characterized by relatively low rates (≤1%) of misleading evidence depending on the firearm considered.     

Use of 2D:4D Digit Ratios to Determine Sex

Second to fourth digit ratios (2D:4D) are sexually dimorphic in human hands and established by the 13th gestational week. Application of 2D:4D for determining sex in living individuals by Kanchan et al. (Forensic Sci Int, 181, 2008, 53.e1) produced classification rates of 80% for males and 74–78% for females. Few studies have explored the use of 2D:4D for sexing skeletal remains. We test estimated finger lengths, phalanx lengths, and 2D:4D derived from hand bones for determining sex. Maximum phalanx length was collected using a mini‐osteometric board from 451 individuals of known age, sex, and ancestry in four skeletal collections. Logistic regression of 2nd and 4th digit finger and phalanx lengths produced classification rates greater than 80%. Digit ratios, however, failed to reach classification rates greater than 59%. Our results support those of Voracek (Forensic Sci Int, 185, 2009, e29) and suggest that 2D:4D may be population‐specific and thus inappropriate for universal application as a means of determining sex.     

Measuring the validity and reliability of forensic likelihood-ratio systems

There has been a great deal of concern recently about validity and reliability in forensic science. This paper reviews for a broad target audience metrics of validity and reliability (accuracy and precision) which have been applied in forensic voice comparison and which are potentially applicable in other branches of forensic science. The metric of validity is the log likelihood-ratio cost (C_llr), and the metric of reliability is an empirical estimate of credible intervals. A revised procedure for the calculation of credible intervals is introduced.     

A response to Busey & Klutzke (2022): Regarding subjective assignment of likelihood ratios

Busey & Klutzke (2022) states that “Morrison (2012) has argued that the likelihood ratio need not be quantitative but could be based on the expert’s subjective evaluation.” The statement appears to suggest that Morrison (2012) argued in favour of subjective assignment of likelihood-ratio values. This interpretation of Morrison (2012) is incorrect.