Britain's Oddest Election?

Fringe political parties did well in the European Parliament elections in June 2005. The British National party won their first seats; altogether, four in ten British voters supported a party not represented in the House of Commons at Westminster. YouGov questioned more than 32,000 electors at the time of the election, in order to find out who voted for each party and why: the sample was big enough to enable robust analysis to be done on the BNP, UKIP and Green vote, as well as the supporters of Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. YouGov's findings show that there was disillusionment with the traditional main parties, and fears for the future, that were felt by voters across the political spectrum, and not just the supporters of the fringe parties.     

Joint sector reviews—M&E experiments in an era of changing aid modalities: Experiences from JSRs in the education sectors of Burkina Faso,Mali and Niger

Aid policy and practice have been thoroughly shaken up over the past few years. One of the reform areas relates to monitoring and evaluation (M&E). In short, aid recipients are asked to elaborate result‐oriented frameworks while donors are expected to harmonise and align their policies and frameworks. This article examines the extent to which joint sector reviews (JSRs) could take the M&E reform agenda forward. JSRs are M&E exercises at the sector level which have the potential to satisfy the M&E needs of various stakeholders while, at the same time, also contributing to the M&E reform agenda. They are increasingly utilised on the ground, yet, so far, there do not exist any systematic stocktakings and/or analyses of them. Our own analysis of a sample of JSRs from the education sectors of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger indicate that JSRs score highly on harmonisation, coordination, leadership and broad‐based participation, but poorly on alignment. They generally prioritise accountability over learning needs and largely neglect accountability and learning at the level of the sector institutional apparatus. In this article, findings from the field are contrasted with insights from evaluation theory and practice so as to provide suggestions for on the ground JSR improvements. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国外汇储备增长的影响因素与实证检验

近年来,我国外汇储备呈现快速增长态势。本文从分析我国外汇储备快速增长的原因出发,利用协整分析方法对影响我国外汇储备的因素进行实证研究。结果表明,影响我国外汇储备的因素主要包括汇率、国内生产总值、外贸开放度等,而外资开放度和外债余额对外汇储备的影响不显著。     

细胞式生产方式在日本的新发展

细胞式生产方式在日本经历了20世纪90年代的"普及推广阶段"之后,现在步入了"改进创新阶段"。细胞生产方式与流水线生产方式比较具有种种优势,但这种优势不会在应用中自然而然地发挥出来,企业必须依据自身要达到的具体目标,加以创造性地运用,在创造性运用的过程中使其不断完善、发展和提高。日本在推广细胞式生产方式方面的经验值得我国学习和借鉴。     

Explaining subnational parliamentary scrutiny powers: A fuzzy-set analysis of German Landtage

While the European Union’s Lisbon Treaty has important implications for regional parliaments with legislative competences, most studies have focused on cross-country differences or examined the activities of regional parliaments at the EU level. This contribution shows the existence of substantial intra-country differences in the formal scrutiny rights of regional parliaments. We analyse how German regional parliaments (Landtage) have addressed the challenge of controlling their governments in EU affairs. Using fuzzy-set comparative qualitative analysis, we find that institutional and partisan factors (vote share in the second chamber, economic potential, and conservative governments) explain the differences found among German Landtage particularly well. Landtage with otherwise weak parliamentary prerogatives were successful in using the reform momentum to strengthen their rights in the field of EU policy. Combined with the party political salience of EU policy-making, the integration process has thus empowered formally weaker Landtage.     

A middle power’s trade policy under U.S.-China FTA competition: South Korea’s double hedging FTA diplomacy

Existing studies on the roles and foreign policies of middle powers place too much focus on their security policies, while there is a dearth of scholarship on their trade policies. Middle powers have used free trade agreement (FTA) politics not only to obtain economic benefits through trade expansion, but also to achieve broader foreign policy goals. Given the U.S.-China FTA competition in East Asia, as a middle power, South Korea, has developed double hedging FTA diplomacy by supporting both powers’ FTA initiatives in order to avoid potential conflicts and maintain favourable relationships with both powers. Specifically, Korea has tried to maximize its national interest and, furthermore, to maintain regional stability by establishing two bilateral FTAs, the Korea-U.S. FTA and the Korea-China FTA, and by showing interest and participating in larger FTA discussions, such as the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership and the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.     

Teacher Glenn: how a political scientist educated a peace researcher

ABSTRACT

This paper argues that the nonkilling political scientist Glenn D. Paige could be seen as an extraordinary peace educator. It will be organized through three words – reading, writing and talisman. It begins with a brief discussion of the method used in understanding political scientist Glenn D. Paige’s life as a teacher. Then, the author’s ‘reading’ and ‘writing’ experiences, from taking courses with him, and writing a PhD dissertation under him, will be examined. The way in which political science education could perhaps be considered a form of peace education will be discussed. The concluding section on ‘talisman’ advances Paige’s central idea of politics in terms of making decisions, especially to choose alternatives which could mitigate the killing effects and enhance nonkilling possibilities.     

The curious case of Ali Cenani Bey: the story of a génocidaire during and after the 1915 Armenian genocide

While there exists an extensive body of literature addressing the Armenian genocide, certain gaps persist. The processes and events of the genocide have been unearthed and examined, but genocide is not a phenomenon set in motion by a force of nature. On the contrary, the systematic destruction of Ottoman Armenians was designed and executed by a cadre of individuals, most of whom are little known today. Kurt’s aim here is to recover the story of one such actor from a particular town, Aintab, modern-day Gaziantep—situated on the boundaries of Cilicia (today the southern part of Anatolia) and Syria, near both the Mediterranean Sea and the Gulf of Alexandretta—thereby revealing the perpetrators and their active involvement in the destruction of Armenians at the local/provincial level. Kurt’s article seeks to shed light on such a perpetrator by analysing the objective features of his background and career. Highlighting the human dimension of the genocide allows for an examination of the actors—their motives and their acts—that ultimately bore responsibility for the catastrophic loss of life. Kurt focuses on the life story of Ali Cenani (1872–1934): his background and involvement in the 1915 Armenian deportation and genocide as well as his career in post-genocide Turkey.     

Measuring re-election prospects across electoral systems: a general approach applied to Germany

This research note presents a general approach for measuring the electoral safety of individual MPs across electoral systems that is based on predicted re-election probabilities estimated from multilevel logistic regression models. In contrast to existing measures, this method yields estimates on an intuitive and readily comparable probability scale, captures the higher sensitivity of re-election prospects to electoral change in the range of close races, and can accommodate regional differences in context conditions such as volatility. The paper implements the approach for two archetypical electoral systems – first-past-the-post (FPTP) systems and closed-list proportional representation (PR) – and estimates re-election prospects for the FPTP and PR tiers of the German mixed electoral system in all Bundestag elections since 1957. While the empirical data presented here is mainly illustrative, the concluding section highlights various questions that future research can address with the new measure.     

Ideological congruence over government mandates under majoritarian and proportional representation electoral systems

The existing literature on ideological congruence has typically looked at congruence immediately after elections when governments are formed. This article goes beyond that comparative static approach by examining changes in citizen-government ideological congruence between two fixed points in time, namely at the beginning and end of government mandates. Building on a veto player approach and dynamics of party competition under majoritarian and proportional representation (PR) electoral systems, the results indicate, first, that government positions are more stable in between elections, as the number of parties and their ideological distance increase in cabinet. Second, it appears that single-party and homogeneous coalition governments decrease ideological congruence between elections under low levels of polarisation, while they increase congruence under very high levels of polarisation. Third, it was found that governments under majoritarian systems slightly decrease congruence between elections while congruence stays stable on average under PR systems. The different levels of party system polarisation across majoritarian and PR electoral systems mostly explain this difference.