空间效应视角下中国省域碳排放总量的驱动因素分析

运用空间计量经济学模型实证分析中国省域碳排放的空间效应及驱动因素的结果显示,中国省域碳排放存在显著的空间自相关性和集群趋势,并主要集中在经济发达、人口密集和能源消费强度大的地区;能源消费强度、人口规模和人均GDP对碳排放总量影响显著,其中能源消费的影响最大;城市化、产业结构和技术创新对碳排放的影响不显著。该研究结论为我国城市化和产业结构升级进程中控制碳排放增量、国家和地方政府建立相应的碳减排鼓励政策和技术研发支持机制,以及各省域构建各具区域特色的低碳经济发展模式具有决策参考意义。     

Foucault,epistemology and history

This paper explores the way in which Michel Foucault utilized, re-worked and applied, in the field of the analysis of epistemological transformations, certain concepts from the history of the sciences that had been deployed the Bachelard and Canguilhem. More particularly, the paper focuses attention, on the one hand, upon the distinction between the present and the actual, from which derives the question of ‘recurrence’, and, on the other, on the idea of games of the true and the false.     

Aggregation,ratio variables,and measurement problems in criminological research

Issues of measurement error, level of aggregation, and ratio variables have been considered serious problems in criminological research. Although there have been many recent discussions of these issues in sociology and criminology, studies designed to assess the impact of these problems on the results of empirical research have, for the most part, been absent. After reviewing what is known theoretically and conceptually about these issues, an investigation which compares empirical analyses of a particular type of crime, homicide, that use different measurement strategies, different levels of aggregation, and ratio versus nonratio variables is presented. Utilizing homicide data from the mid-1970s and selected independent variables, the results of this investigation indicate that these three problems can interact in an empirical setting such that potential solutions to these problems do not always apply in the manner suggested in previous studies. The results also indicate that there is great risk in ignoring one or more of these problems in empirical research, in that different substantive conclusions can be reached from analyses that ignore these issues compared with analyses that deal directly with them.     

温差对弯管流量计的测量影响

随着弯管流量计在供热系统中的广泛应用 ,如何估算由弯径比变化产生的测量误差是人们关心的问题 ,本文详细介绍了在供热系统中温差对弯管流量计测量影响的原理 ,分析并估算了误差的大小。     

利用牙齿长度的增长量推断死亡年龄

牙齿由于形成条件的特殊性和颚骨的保护作用 ,因而具有很好的防腐性和抗降解性。因此 ,可以利用牙齿长度来推断青、幼年人的死亡年龄。即通过重复测量 10 0颗牙齿 ,利用数理统计的方法 ,推导出牙齿长度与年龄的回归方程。然后 ,将现场提取的孤立牙齿的长度值与种类代入该方程 ,便可推算出死亡年龄。     

The National Incident-Based Reporting System: Research and Policy Applications

The National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) offers a new source ofdata for measuring crime. Though far from national in coverage, NIBRS datacan address research and policy questions outside the scope of the UniformCrime Reports and the National Crime Victimization Survey. Comparisons ofthe three sources of crime data are presented, with particular emphasis onwhat can be learned from incident-based police data that cannot be learnedfrom other sources. Like all data on crime, the NIBRS is subject to variousproblems with validity and measurement error. Two general categories of suchproblems are discussed: those evident in the design of the NIBRS and thoselinked to more general issues in the organizational production of data.     

罪犯角色认知的误区及对策

角色认知是一个人社会化的重要内容,罪犯在改造中,存在着角色认知的误区,导致角色行为与现实脱节,不能正确认知自己所扮演的社会角色,产生角色冲突,导致角色失败。因此,在改造中,强化罪犯的角色认知意识,是转化罪犯的前提条件。     

Reliability of the Walker Cranial Nonmetric Method and Implications for Sex Estimation

The cranial trait scoring method presented in Buikstra and Ubelaker (Standards for data collection from human skeletal remains. Fayetteville, AR: Arkansas Archeological Survey Research Series No. 44, 1994) and Walker (Am J Phys Anthropol, 136, 2008 and 39) is the most common nonmetric cranial sex estimation method utilized by physical and forensic anthropologists. As such, the reliability and accuracy of the method is vital to ensure its validity in forensic applications. In this study, inter‐ and intra‐observer error rates for the Walker scoring method were calculated using a sample of U.S. White and Black individuals (n = 135). Cohen's weighted kappas, intraclass correlation coefficients, and percentage agreements indicate good agreement between trials and observers for all traits except the mental eminence. Slight disagreement in scoring, however, was found to impact sex classifications, leading to lower accuracy rates than those published by Walker. Furthermore, experience does appear to impact trait scoring and sex classification. The use of revised population‐specific equations that avoid the mental eminence is highly recommended to minimize the potential for misclassifications.     

Veldt fires in South Africa: Implications on osteometry and the biological profile

Standard operating procedures for forensic anthropological analyses dictate that thermally altered remains should not be measured, hindering the creation of a biological profile. Few studies have addressed estimating biological parameters from burned remains, with the greatest focus of this research area being on cremated remains. However, veldt fires are more common than cremation in the South African forensic context. The aim of this study was to explore the degree of structural changes observed in domestic pig (Sus scrofa) bones associated with thermal destruction and the potential impact on the estimation of a biological profile using standard osteometric methods. A total of 96 pig femora were divided equally into two categories: fresh and dry. Within each category, equal samples were exposed to different durations of burning, namely, 5, 10, and 20 min. Ten standard femoral anthropological measurements were collected before and after burning. Technical error of measurement and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were used to assess changes in the femoral dimensions before and after burning. Most measurements were significantly different after burning, with the fresh bones decreasing in size by up to 7.8% and the dry bones decreasing in size by up to 4.0%. The magnitude of post-burning measurement changes for both burn conditions was similar to, or smaller than has previously been reported for observer measurement errors of commonly used variables investigated for standard osteometric studies. Veldt fires are less intense than cremation, thus causing less shrinkage.     

Testing Reliability of the Computational Age‐At‐Death Estimation Methods between Five Observers Using Three‐Dimensional Image Data of the Pubic Symphysis,

In an effort to standardize data collection and analysis in age estimation, a series of computational methods utilizing high‐dimensional image data of the age indicator have recently been proposed as an alternative to subjective visual, trait‐to‐phase matching techniques. To systematically quantify the reproducibility of such methods, we investigate the intrascan variability and within‐ and between‐observer reliability in initial scan data capturing and editing using 3D laser scans of the Suchey–Brooks pubic symphysis casts and five shape‐based computational methods. Our results show that (i) five observers with various training background and experience levels edited the scans consistently for all three trials and the derived shape measures and age estimates were in excellent agreement among observers, and (ii) the computational methods are robust to a measured degree of scan trimming error. This study supports the application of computational methods to 3D laser scanned images for reliable age‐at‐death estimation, with reduced subjectivity.