政府决策失误的责任追究探讨

政府决策是政府行使国家管理职能的有效工具和手段,它在国家政治、经济、文化、外交领域发挥着巨大的作用。然而“政府决策失误”一旦酿成,轻则会给国家和人民造成重大财产损失,重则会造成人员伤亡。有权力即有责任,问责“政府决策失误”是建立责任政府和构建和谐社会的必然要求。     

美中贸易协调性的实证分析:垂直专业化视角

基于2005～2012年的月度数据进行实证分析,协整检验结果表明,美国对华出口与从中国进口存在长期稳定的协整关系。从误差修正模型看,短期内美国对华出口与从中国进口之间存在动态调整机制。根据格兰杰因果关系检验,在滞后6期内,美国对华出口与从中国进口之间只存在单向的因果关系,美国对华出口是美国从中国进口的格兰杰原因,美国对华出口增长是美国从中国进口增长的决定因素。脉冲响应函数分析表明,美国对华出口的某一冲击会给美国从中国进口增长带来同向冲击。这些实证结果表明垂直专业化分工在驱动着美中贸易,政府在制定平衡美中贸易的政策时,不应忽视垂直专业化分工以及市场对维持美中双边贸易均衡的约束机制。     

“A View You Won’t Get Anywhere Else”? Depressed Mothers, Public Regulation and ‘Private’ Narrative

The existence of ‘postnatal’ or maternal depression (PND) is contested, and subject to various medico-legal and cultural definitions. Mothers remain subject to complex systems of scrutiny and regulation. In medico-legal discourse, postnatal distress is portrayed as a tragic pathology of mysterious (but probably hormonal) origin. A PND diagnosis denotes ‘imbalance’ in the immediate postnatal period, although women experience increased incidence of depression throughout maternity. Current treatment patterns emphasise medication and tend to elide the perspective of the individual sufferer in favour of a blanket disease model. I emphasise the need for a feminist reassessment of maternal distress and the means available to ‘testify’ to its forms, and argue for PND to be analysed in biopolitical terms, perhaps as a ‘habitus’ materialising the low status and pervasive privatisation of Western mothers.

山东省出口贸易与人均GDP增长的实证分析

根据山东省1984-2007年的统计数据,运用协整方法,对出口与经济增长的实证分析结果表明,山东省出口与人均GDP均为一阶单整序列;运用Engle-Granger两步法建立的协整回归方程和误差修正模型表明,出口对人均GDP增长具有极强的拉动作用,二者之间存在着长期稳定的动态均衡关系。     

日本货物进出口贸易协调性的动态分析及启示

日本货物出口与进口之间是否存在协同均衡增长的动态发展关系,是否存在维持进出口内在均衡的机制,文章基于2008年—2012年的月度数据进行了实证分析。协整检验结果表明,日本货物出口与进口存在长期稳定的协整关系。从误差修正模型看,短期内日本货物出口与进口之间存在动态调整机制。根据格兰杰因果关系检验,日本货物出口与日本货物进口存在单向和双向因果关系。脉冲响应函数分析表明,日本货物出口的某一冲击会给日本货物进口增长带来同向冲击。实证结果表明在垂直专业化分工背景下,尽管自动调节机制可以使日本货物进出口向长期均衡调整,但是由于全球需求放缓、向海外转移生产基地、日元持续升值和东日本大地震等不确定因素的综合影响,日本沦为经常项目逆差国的可能性正在加大。     

The clinician–patient working alliance: is it a significant predictor of psychiatric medication adherence in a sample of recently released parolees?

Persistent psychiatric symptoms can serve as a major barrier to the successful reintegration of parolees with mental illness. Thus, it is important to identify factors that might impact their mental health recovery, such as low adherence to their treatment regimen. The strength of the clinician/patient working alliance has been found to be significantly associated with psychiatric medication adherence in prior research, but this relationship has not been assessed in a parolee population. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine if patient-rated working alliance was a significant predictor of low psychiatric medication adherence while taking into account alcohol/illegal drug use, age, and ethnicity in a sample of recently released parolees with mental illness (N = 49). Patient-rated working alliance, age, and ethnicity were not significant predictors of low adherence. Alcohol/illegal drug use during the follow-up period was associated with a significantly increased likelihood of meeting the criteria for low medication adherence (OR = 8.36; 95% CI = 1.60, 43.66). While working alliance was not found to be a significant predictor of medication adherence in this study, further research is needed to examine how substance misuse impacts the clinician–patient working alliance in this population.     

Using network sampling in crime victimization surveys

Since crime victimizations are statistically rare events, surveys to estimate rates of victimization are difficult and expensive. In this paper, we examine the advantages of network sampling over traditional methods for conducting crime victimization surveys. Network sampling links population households in specified ways, for reporting purposes, in order to increase the probabilities of locating households with particular characteristics. We conducted a reverse record check field experiment to test whether a telephone survey using network sampling is feasible to collect crime victimization data. Three types of crimes-burglary, robbery, and assault-were tested along with two types of networks-relatives and co-workers/close friends. This paper examines the extent to which victims report their victimization experiences in a general crime and victimization interview and the extent to which a randomly selected relative or close friend will report the same victimization incident in an identical interview. A number of multiplicity counting rules are compared in terms of reporting errors and a mean square error analysis.     

Hair analysis for cocaine: factors in laboratory contamination studies and their relevance to proficiency sample preparation and hair testing practices

Since the introduction in 2001 of a urine-based detection method for recombinant erythropoietin (rHuEPO), transfusion-doping practices have regained interest. To address this problem, an efficient antidoping test designed to obtain direct proof of allogeneic blood transfusion was developed and validated. This test, based on flow cytometry analysis of red blood cell (RBCs) phenotypes, was used to determine the absence or the presence of numerous RBCs populations in a blood sample. A such, it may constitute a direct proof of an abnormal blood population resulting from homologous transfusion. Single-blind and single-site studies were carried out to validate this method as a forensic quality standard analysis and to allow objective interpretation of real cases. The analysis of 140 blood samples containing different percentages (0-5%) of a minor RBCs population were carried on by four independent analysts. Robustness, sensitivity, specificity, precision and stability were assessed. ISO-accredited controls samples were used to demonstrate that the method was robust, stable and precise. No false positive results were observed, resulting in a 100% specificity of the method. Most samples containing a 1.5% minor RBCs population were unambiguously detected, yielding a 78.1% sensitivity. These samples mimicked blood collected from an athlete 3 months after a homologous blood transfusion event where 10% of the total RBCs present in the recipient originated in the donor. The observed false negative results could be explained by differences in antigen expression between the donor and the recipient. False negatives were more numerous with smaller minor RBCs populations. The method described here fulfils the ISO-17025 accreditation and validation requirements. The controls and the methodology are solid enough to determine with certainty whether a sample contains one or more RBCs populations. This variable is currently the best indicator for homologous blood transfusion doping.