Failed agreements and their impact on subsequent mediation onset and success in intrastate conflicts

ABSTRACT

What impact do failed mediated agreements have on subsequent mediation onset and success? The question of mediation onset and success is undoubtedly important, given that mediation is one of the international community’s preferred conflict management tools, but its voluntary nature leaves room for the conflict parties to (dis)agree to talks and possible settlements. Existing research suggests that previous mediation outcomes can affect subsequent mediation efforts positively or negatively – depending on the outcome in focus. This article argues that failed agreements – an outcome of mediation that has not been accounted for in existing literature – underscore the persistence of the commitment problem, and therefore the hazards of sharing private information. Consequently, the conflict parties question the utility of mediation, and the likelihood of subsequent mediation onset decreases. If subsequent talks take place despite the failed agreement, the conflict parties refrain from sharing private information, and reaching an agreement becomes thus less likely. Drawing on the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s (UCDP) Managing Intrastate Conflict in Africa data set and the UCDP Peace Agreement data set, the results strongly underline the negative impact failed agreements have on subsequent mediation onset, and thereby show that agreement longevity is crucial not only for peace duration but also for leaving the door open to subsequent talks.     

Exploitation of the Ultraviolet Properties and Machine Cut Edges of Paper to Associate and Sequence Sheets in a Ream

Previously unreported line patterns visible under ultraviolet light were observed on a proportion of plain white A4 printer/copier paper from different manufacturers. These Ultraviolet Line Patterns (UVLPs) usually appear as stripes down the vertical length of the paper. Typically, the UVLPs were found to “repeat” through the ream in a predictable way, while also changing. It is postulated that the repeating nature of the UVLPs is a result of the way that paper is manufactured. This leads to the ability to sequence the sheets compared to their original source paper. Even in the absence of UVLPs, it is possible to use our observation of the manufacturing process to anticipate the order of several sheets of paper and conclusively associate them, in some cases, by physically fitting their machine cut edges and crossing paper fibers. Such a novel approach to examining questioned documents would be highly useful in forensic casework.     

基于二代测序的混合检材精细化分型研究

目的基于二代测序平台进行混合检材精细化STR分型,并评估其法医学应用价值。方法收集性侵案件中3例混合检材及其比对样本,采用M48磁珠提取纯化试剂盒提取样本DNA,使用Foren SeqTM DNA Signature Prep试剂盒制备文库,Mi Seq FGx平台进行测序,Foren SeqTM Universal Analysis v1.2.1软件进行数据分析,将STR序列多态分型与长度多态分型进行比较。结果对3例混合检材STR分型进行拆分,在D3S1358、D13S317与D9S1122基因座发现存在同一长度多态等位基因包含两个个体的序列多态等位基因的情况。结论二代测序技术可对混合检材进行精细鉴别,为混合分型数据拆分提供更多线索和依据。     

Vectors of traumatic memories and mass-mediated representations of the ‘last’ Nazi trial of John Demjanjuk

This is an ideological critique of key vectors of memory that could have circulated during the Munich trial of John Demjanjuk. While many members of the mainstream press applauded the efforts of German prosecutors who seemed to be dispensing belated justice to Europe’s ‘second generation,’ the circulation of these select legal vectors left us truncated World War II histories. Moreover, the binary choices that were posed stood in the way of more comprehensive and nuanced studies of Stalinism, Nazi and collaborator culpability.     

Soil sample metagenome NGS data management for forensic investigation

Soil analysis is a valuable resource in forensic investigation. Classical forensic soil analysis involves examination of its physical characteristics and chemical composition, such as soil type, colour, particle size, shape, pH, elemental, mineral and organic content. However the limited variability of these parameters is not always allowing adequate discrimination between soil samples. As soil supports extreme diversity of microorganisms and eukaryotic communities, microbiological approaches have been proposed. Several molecular approaches for microbial DNA profiling are available; however there is a lack of published data of implementation of the next generation sequencing (NGS) approaches for forensic soil analysis.The aim of the current study was elaboration of criteria for soil metagenome data management and database searching. We used our previously sequenced collection of 11 samples collected from different environments (forests, fields, grasslands, urban park) with different flora. The single sample collection includes 9 soil samples per one sampling area (30 m × 30 m) spaced by 15 m. In the current study we concentrated mainly on 18S rRNA gene V2-V3 region for fungi however SSU rRNA region for arbuscular mycorrhizal (AMF) fungi and V2-V3 hypervariable region of 16S rRNA gene for bacterial communities were taken into account. The sequencing was performed by Roche/454 platform. For data analysis OTU based approach on mothur software and NCBI BLASTN search were used. NCBI BLASTN analysis revealed altogether 2983 AMF matches and 8997 18S matches as well as 25477 OTUs (16S) were determined. Several data filtration approaches were used for data management. We found that 18S marker results could be used to create and run a filtered database that is computationally much more efficient and flexible. Our results have broad impact; however more samples have to be analysed, additional studies performed and cooperation between soil scientists and forensic scientists is required to be able to implement these novel techniques into the routine forensic practice.     

论第三代中央领导集体反腐政治体系的构建——党的权力运行秩序视阈下的解读

基于社会主义市场经济的不成熟、不完善,从而滋生大量诱发腐败的劣变生态因子的情况,第三代中央领导集体在继承我党廉政建设有益经验的基础上,积极探索构建反腐政治体系。在政党文化层面,积极推进观念化意识形态的创新,为有效有序运行党的权力提供科学而恒定的价值方向和准则规范;在内政治社会化层面,强化对领导干部的政党文化内化教育;在政治制度层面突出准则和规范的实施以及源头防治功能,推进制度反腐新路径;在政治关系层面坚持"以法为轨"的准则,推动新形势下党的权力运行民主化和善治化;在政治行为层面加强对反腐工作规律的认识和继续实行群众参与制度化建设。     

北京市新生代农民工城市融人意愿研究

根据国家人口与计划生育委员会2011年和2012年"流动人口动态监测项目"北京地区调查数据和北京市人口与计划生育委员会2012年"北京市流动人口的生存状况与未来预期"项目数据,目前北京的新生代农民工已占农民工整体的一半以上,受教育程度有所提高,面临较大的婚育压力。在城市融入意愿方面,大多数新生代农民工积极评价北京的变化,具有强烈的融入意愿;制约新生代农民工城市融入的主要障碍,有户籍制度等制度性因素,市场能力等经济性因素,以及社会参与不足、人际交往狭窄、居住空间隔离等社会和心理因素。为解决以上问题,需要正确认识与处理控制北京市人口规模与促进新生代农民工的城市融入的关系;创新社区管理体制,调动新生代农民工参与社区服务、社区活动的积极性与主动性,推动新生代农民工实现社区融入;加强对新生代农民工的职业培训,逐步实行城乡统一的劳动力市场就业制度;营造一个有利于新生代农民工融入城市的和谐宽容的社会心理环境。     

新生代农民工的城市适应与社工专业的介入

农民工群体内部正发生着代际转移,第二代农民工已开始进入“城市舞台”成为农民工的主体,这些新生代农民工的群体特征和生存状况成为社会关注的重要问题。文章试图在已有的调查和文献研究的基础上,进一步剖析新生代农民工在城市适应和融入中所遇到的双重困境,希望介入社会工作的专业助人方式,为缓解新生代农民工在城市适应问题提供一定的策略和解决途径。     

新生代农民工婚姻家庭研究的理论与前瞻

有序推进农业转移人口市民化是当前的社会目标,也是解决好"三农"问题的重要方向。分析新生代农民工的婚姻家庭问题可以找到市民化的可能突破点。由于社会流动、婚姻挤压、双重边缘人的身份尴尬、婚姻策略的盲目调整等方面的原因,新生代农民工婚姻家庭表现出传统与现代的融合特性,丰富了婚姻内涵的同时又带来了很多的社会管理难题。因而以婚姻家庭为突破口,对新生代农民工进行分层化、专门化研究,探索在新型城镇化和市民化的进程中如何缓解成婚难问题,改变婚姻迁移循环式流动的窘境,减轻抚幼赡老维持家庭的经济压力,是当前新生代农民工研究的重要内容。     

安徽新生代农民工维权保障与政治认同

在对安徽省新生代农民工访谈和调研的基础上,探讨新生代农民工维权保障在政治认同中的作用。由于城乡二元结构导致的分野,使新生代农民工在身份定位上、权益保障上、利益诉求表达渠道上遭遇众多尴尬、困惑和迷茫。为此,应高度重视对新生代农民工维权的保障,采取积极有效的政策和措施,从法律制度建设和政府行政效率提升入手,不断创新维权保障路径,增强安徽新生代农民工的政治认同。