Do volatile voters vote less correctly? An analysis of correct voting among vote (intention) switchers in US presidential election campaigns

The literature on electoral volatility and the literature on electoral campaigns hold contradictory views on voters switching vote (intention) during the campaign. In this note, we shed new light on this contradiction, making two contributions. First, we investigate the extent to which stable and volatile voters choose the correct party. Second, we distinguish levels of correct voting and the impact of the act of switching on the correctness of the vote. Our analyses of vote-switching in American elections show that, while volatile voters are less likely to vote correctly, they are more likely to switch from an incorrect to the correct party than vice versa. Furthermore, we show that following the campaign more closely makes voters more likely to switch vote (intention) towards the correct party.     

Small arms and light weapons: the disjunction problem

ABSTRACT

Growing in range and urgency, humanitarian needs now pose increasingly acute questions for national security policy formulation. Whether over forced migration, food scarcity or nefarious electronic penetration, state security preferences face uneasy accommodations with individual needs be it for child survival, basic sustenance or rights to privacy. This paper deliberates a further field of increasingly apparent value contest: that involving the transfer, diversion and lethal use of small arms and light weapons (SALW). After outlining the scale of this phenomenon, existing regulatory mechanisms over SALW transfers are assessed. It is argued that these controls are inadequate, a deficiency that is embedded within a range of inter-linked disjunctions. They are outlined in a model that is evaluated against empirical findings. Where SALW control inadequacy is causally connected to the disjunctive model, it is argued, current levels of SALW-induced casualties are unlikely to abate. The paper concludes by considering feasible options for enhanced management of global SALW proliferation.     

公共服务供给机制转型中的公益性岗位研究

我国自2002年起开始施行公益性岗位的政策,这一政策对拓宽就业渠道、缓解失业压力起到了一定的作用。但目前依靠政府进一步开发和购买公益性岗位的难度很大。本文对国内外公共服务供给机制转型进行了比较分析,在此基础上提出以下建议:我国应进一步完善公共服务的供给机制,以社区为平台,通过推动购买服务的方式,调动社会组织服务社区和吸收就业的功能,以推动公益性岗位的增加。     

耕地集约化租赁的纠纷审视与司法应对

耕地集约化租赁虽对实现农业的转型升级具有积极作用,但也出现了一些损害农村土地权益的负面现象,并逐渐演化为诉讼纠纷。其所凸显出的发展与有序的问题不容忽视,需要司法实践积极回应,并进行利益平衡上的思考。     

The Management of Democratic Elections in Africa (MDEA) programme at the university of South Africa: Is this the right path towards African solutions?

There have been a number of initiatives in Africa to rid the Continent of political instability, conflict, poverty and disease. Many have argued that aid from the West has helped Africa in many ways—from stopping wars, to food relief and rescuing the African environment. Yet others have slated Western involvement which they contend, frequently leaves Africans dependant rather than capable of solving their own problems. In line with the pan-Africanist and the African Union (AU) ideals, there is now a realisation by Africans that there is a need to find African solutions to African challenges and problems. This review article explores the University of South Africa’s (Unisa’s) Management of Democratic Elections in Africa (MDEA) programme, by looking at its objectives and the reason why it must be labelled a Programme, its mandate, which is in line with the brief of the AU and pan-Africanist ideals. The article focuses on how Unisa’s programme responds to the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG); and how it has attempted to facilitate knowledge for peace in Africa, through empowering electoral officials from various African states. The article concludes by looking at the successes and limitations of the Programme over a five-year period, from its inception in 2011.     

税收之债的消灭时效

税收之债的消灭时效是税收债权消灭的重要原因,对于督促税收债权人及时行使债权、保护纳税人权利、建构稳定和谐的税收征纳关系具有重要意义。税收债权的消灭时效包括确定时效和征收时效两类,其内容涉及时效的性质、期间长度、期间起算、中断和中止、期间届满的法律效果等问题。我国税法对税收债权的消灭时效制度规定很不健全,应当借鉴他国立法例和国际经验,通过制定税收通则法等途径尽快予以完善。     

和谐社会视域下的国企工人道德素质现状及对策研究

依据中国公民人文素质调查数据库对我国国企工人道德素质从道德意识、道德常识、道德行为三个维度进行综合分析,结果表明:(1)国企工人道德素质整体水平较高,但在道德意识上存在倒置和不平衡等差异现象。(2)国企工人道德素质结构性差异不均衡,学历和工龄对其作用以直接作用为主。     

壮族末伦文化现存状况调查及原因试析——以广西靖西县为个案

20世纪70年代之后,壮族末伦文化呈现出了明显衰落的迹象,其传承者势单力薄,受众形单影只。文章认为,导致这一现象的产生主要有现代化生活方式的影响与冲击;特殊历史文化背景的制约与束缚;对民族民间文化的错误定位;对原始宗教问题的片面认识和对文化保护的“静态”做法等五个方面的原因。     

沿海十省(市)药品监管机构能力之比较研究

在构建社会主义和谐社会的当代中国,药品的安全性和有效性正日益引起人们的关注,而药品监管机构能力的建设与评估也开始成为社会监管领域的重要问题.通过回顾国内外已有的对政府能力概念和要素的研究,借用Nelissen的潜在能力和现实能力理论,结合世界银行2003年《世界发展报告》中对机构现实能力的要素分析和"行政储备"理论对机构潜在能力的要素分析,构建起药品监管机构能力的结构模型,并提出一套评估的指标体系.对数据进行标准化处理后,通过统计排序对沿海十省(市)药品监管机构能力进行评估和比较,进而利用最小二乘法(OLS)建立回归模型,分析潜在能力中的财力和人力因素对现实能力的贡献率.研究发现:地区财力对监管机构现实能力的影响较之人力因素要大,这在理论和实践中都可以得到证实;各地药品监管机构的潜在能力与现实能力之间存在较大差异,就那些现实机构能力较低的地区而言,现阶段有必要把工作重点放在医药企业生产经营行为的监管和农村地区医药监管基础设施的建设上;而对于潜在机构能力较低的地区来说,从"专业化、程序化和独立性"等方面提升机构整体的人力资源是当务之急.     

新时期知识产权保护面临的挑战与对策

以《与贸易有关的知识产权协议》（TRIPS）为中心的知识产权国际保护制度建立以来,国际贸易自由化遭遇知识产权保护制度的挑战。为有效防止知识产权保护制度成为新的贸易壁垒,抑制科技创新与发展,进而成为发达国家掠夺发展中国家的工具,我国应在充分研究TRIPS协议的基础上积极回应,使知识产权保护制度切实为我所用,在国际贸易自由化的大趋势下发挥其应有的效用。