Party politics and the survival of central bank governors

Legally independent central banks leave elected politicians with little direct control over monetary policy. The most important indirect channel of influence for governments thus consists in appointing ‘responsive’ central bank officials and removing ‘hostile’ ones. This premise is tested by examining the effect of partisan ties between central bank governors and governments or presidents in 30 European democracies between 1945 and 2012. Drawing on an original dataset containing information on the party affiliations of 195 governors, event history models are employed to show that affiliation with a party represented in the executive (the government or the presidency) has a large and significant positive effect on governor survival. However, affiliation with an opposition party only increases governors' hazards during the first four years of their term, suggesting that the impact of the party label may be overridden as more reliable information about a governor becomes available.     

关于基层央行推进工会财务管理科学化的策略探讨

目前,基层央行工会财务工作存在着财会制度及实施细则滞后、财务会计管理不够严格、经费审查长效机制缺失、财会人员专业素质匮乏等问题。其改善措施应为：以现代财务管理理论为指导,推进工会财务管理科学化;以内控内管体系建设为核心,推进工会财务管理规范化;以工会财务公开透明为重点,推进工会财务管理民主化;以提高财会人员素质为关键,推进工会财务管理信息化。     

Governing the future: the European Central Bank’s expectation management during the Great Moderation

Abstract

The experience of the global financial crisis has sparked renewed interest in the role of futurity in the capitalist economy in general and in the formation and coordination of expectations under uncertainty in particular. Economic sociologists have carefully studied the ‘defuturizing’ technologies devised by private actors, but have tended to neglect the increasingly pivotal part played by central banks. Political economists have had more to say on central banks, but have focused on institutional issues rather than on the concrete practices of central banking. Making an original contribution to both literatures, this paper traces the construction and subsequent evolution, up to 2007, of the European Central Bank’s communicative apparatus. Drawing on official documents and on interviews with both ECB staff and market participants, the paper shows how this apparatus created the conditions for the formation and coordination of private sector expectations. The insights from this empirical analysis into the performative dimensions of ‘credibility’ and ‘knowledge’ in monetary governance contribute directly to ongoing debates about the recent extension of the ECB’s communicative apparatus through forward guidance and quantitative easing.     

信息化背景下流窜抢劫案件的侦查困境及对策

随着经济的高速发展,信息化和交通业蓬勃发展,其在给人们生活带来方便的同时,也给犯罪分子利用交通工具远距离流窜作案提供了新途径。而此类案件中,以远距离流窜抢劫较为普遍。面对此类案件的新特点,侦查部门只有先从信息化背景下流窜抢劫案件频发的原因剖析出发,结合案件的特点深入分析案件的侦查困境,才能有效探求其侦查对策,以实现遏制此类案件发生的目标。     

事后抢劫罪若干问题刍议

事后抢劫罪并非一个独立的罪名,而是经法律拟制为抢劫罪。司法解释关于已满14周岁不满16周岁的相对刑事责任年龄的人能否成立事后抢劫罪出现了不一致的规定,立足解释论的立场,“犯盗窃、诈骗、抢夺罪”被重新理解,故此承认相对刑事责任年龄的人是本罪的犯罪主体。事后抢劫罪与承继的共犯也是一个疑难问题,事后抢劫罪不是身份犯,后行为人成立共同正犯和共犯的想象竞合。但是,根据正犯优于共犯的法理,以故意伤害罪或者故意杀人罪的共同正犯论定刑事责任。最后,事后抢劫罪存在未遂,盗窃等前提行为相对于事后抢劫罪是一种潜在的实行行为,经由后续暴行、胁迫行为的实施,成为一种显在的实行行为。     

Twenty years of homicide and robbery in Chicago: The impact of the city's changing racial and age composition

Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) arrest and offense data for Chicago for 1960 to 1980 and population data from the 1960, 1970, and 1980 censuses are used to assess the extent to which demographic changes help explain trends in the city's homicide and robbery arrests. The results indicate that a changing racial composition contributed to changes in the age composition of Chicago's population as well as to changes in the homicide rate. Age-specific analysis by race and gender suggests that as much as 24% of the total increase in homicide arrests and 45% of the increase in robbery arrests (from 1962 to 1980) can be attributed to an increase in the number of nonwhite men in the population. Increasedrates of arrest of nonwhite men appear to account for large parts of the increases in homicide and robbery arrests, with increased rates for white men and nonwhite women also accounting for some of these increases. The paper closes with a discussion of the issues raised by these trends for Chicago and other urban areas.Revision of a paper presented at the 1984 Annual Meeting of the American Society of Criminology, Cincinnati.     

经济全球化与网络犯罪

经济全球化正在推动着现代化社会和世界秩序的重组 ,但其所带来的负面影响与冲突也不可低估。网络是全球化发展的产物 ,全球化的进程将深刻影响互联网业的发展。与此相关的问题是 ,网上诈骗活动日益猖狂 ,网上毒品交易渐趋频繁 ,网上银行的安全问题突出。漠视这些问题的存在 ,将会使经济全球化变为一场泡影     

势头不衰的全球金融创新——兼析银行业创新的证券化趋势

面临入世 ,与国际接轨是大势所趋。起始于20世纪80年代的西方银行业创新证券化 ,将在21世纪至少前10年对中国金融业产生深刻的影响。推进我国银行业创新证券化的关键在于制度创新。     

试析破产企业职工工资债权清偿优先的理由及其制度设计

对破产企业银行担保物权与职工工资债权清偿先后顺序,我国赋予破产企业职工工资债权清偿优先权有充足的理由。为了实现银行与职工之间的利益平衡,我国应当在借鉴国外的“部分优先原则”的理论基础上,设计符合国情的工资债权优先权制度。     

论抢劫罪中的“当场”

对抢劫罪中“当场”的含义,要从时间和空间两个方面予以限定。典型抢劫基本形态中的强制行为不要求“当场”,取财行为要具有当场性,其时间范围是强制行为发生后的较短时间段,空间范围是以强制行为为中心的一较小范围;《刑法》第269条转化型抢劫罪中的“当场”,其时间范围应自行为人着手实施先行犯罪的实行行为始至原财物持有人或其他人丧失对财物的监管止,空间范围包括盗窃等先行行为的现场及其合理延伸区域;转化型“入户抢劫”中的“当场”,其时间范围应当始于实施盗窃实行行为之时,终于行为人脱离户内之际,空间范围仅限于“户内”。