Just the Ticket? The Labour Party's Deputy Leadership Election of 2007

Although there were six contenders for Labour's Deputy Leadership contest, it was conducted with remarkably little personal animosity. Nor, for the most part, were there substantive policy differences between the challengers, with the notable exception of the Iraq War. Instead, there was a clear determination to 'move on' from Blairism, and an acknowledgement that changes or new priorities were now necessary in key areas of policy, albeit without lurching to the Left or reviving 'Old Labour'. As such, the main differences between the candidates derived from their differing perceptions of the role of the Deputy Leader, and what they would each contribute to the post if elected. The ballot also revealed the manner in which support for the six contenders varied across the three sections of Labour's electoral college, so that each candidate tended to be more popular among one section of the Party, but enjoyed less support from the other two sections.     

台海局势发展大方向：和解和平和谐统一——对孙子“不战而屈人之兵”思想的思考

台海局势的发展趋势如何?这是目前两岸人民共同关心的问题。从陈水扁在2006年2月27日宣布“终统”及准备“制宪”的讲话来看,我们还不能排除“台独”势力在2008年大选之前铤而走险、孤注一掷的可能性。但是,陈水扁的“搅局”并不能改变台海局势发展的大方向。以2004年底台湾地区“立法院”选举泛蓝胜出和2005年春连战、宋楚瑜等人相继访问大陆为契机,同年年底“三合一”的县市选举泛蓝大胜为标志,“和解———和平———和谐———统一”将是台海局势发展的大方向。这是我们学习孙子关于“不战而屈人之兵”思想后所得出的基本结论。     

抗日战争时期的国民政府警察

抗战八年是国民党政权的鼎盛时期。这一时期,国民政府警察机关基本上围绕抗日战争的需要进行机构调整和警务活动,主要是调整中央警察机构及其职能,改编地方警察并增强其活力,加强专业警察工作,强化宪兵、保卫团、特务组织的警察职能。     

Dissolution and Reintegration in Finland, 1914–1932: How did a Disarmed Country Become Absorbed into Brutalization?

Finland avoided participation in the Great War, but in 1918 fell into a short civil war that culminated in a cycle of vicious terror. The focus of this article is to explain the high incidence of terror during that civil war in comparison with other civil wars that took place in the Baltic region. The violent polarization of Finnish society was triggered as reform expectations skyrocketed at the moment when the country’s institutions were in chaos and its economy in a free fall. Mutual distrust, armed mobilizations, and a sense that time was running out in the arms race were key factors that drove both warring parties to the violent conflict. The author concludes with a discussion of the reintegration of the dissolved state. He frames the conflict within various psychological theories and group behavior in the context of economic possibilities and expectations. The article is based on his own empirical research and on the studies of other scholars on the history of the Finnish Civil War.     

20世纪三四十年代宝鸡城市发展与社会变迁

20世纪三四十年代,陇海铁路修通至宝鸡,便利了与外界的交通往来,也为抗战全面爆发后沦陷区企业和难民内迁宝鸡奠定基础。在外来因素的刺激下,长期处于停滞状态的宝鸡社会经济开始发生显著的变化,在工商业繁荣的同时,传统的封闭社会也逐渐开放。电力作为照明应用于市民日常生活,河南人大量涌入宝鸡改变了当地人口结构并导致河南话成为官方交流语言,妇女也不再局限于家务劳动而进入工厂成为工人,西医医院大量出现扩大了就医范围。     

Modernist art in the service of Nazi culture: Baldur von Schirach and the Junge Kunst im Deutschen Reich exhibition

ABSTRACT

Maertz's essay offers a history of a modernist art exhibition that opened in Vienna's Künstlerhaus under the patronage of Baldur von Schirach, the Führer's personal representative in that city, the second largest in Nazi Germany. The significance of the 1943 Junge Kunst im Deutschen Reich (New Art in the German Reich) exhibition lies in its assertion of a modernist variant of ‘official’ National Socialist art that clashes with the orthodox aesthetic system typically associated with the Third Reich.     

Leader Incentives and Civil War Outcomes

This article examines the influence that rebel and state leaders have on civil war outcomes, arguing that incentives to avoid punishment influence their strategic decision making during war.  Leaders in civil war face punishment from two sources: internal audiences and opponents. I hypothesize that leaders who bear responsibility for involvement in the war have a higher expectation of punishment from both sources following unfavorable war performance, and thus, have incentives to continue the fight in the hope of turning the tide and avoiding the negative consequences of defeat. These incentives, in turn, make leaders who bear responsibility more likely to fight to an extreme outcome and less likely to make concessions to end the war.  These propositions are tested on an original data set identifying all rebel and state leaders in all civil conflict dyads ongoing between 1980 and 2011.  Results support the hypothesized relationships between leader responsibility and war outcomes.     

美国智库对华战略构想的新内涵——以《更长电报:走向新的美国对华战略》为例

拜登执政后美国对华战略如何调整备受瞩目,美国一些智库则积极"兜售"相关政策主张,其中大西洋理事会发布的《更长电报:走向新的美国对华战略》匿名报告受到广泛关注。该报告反映出美国智库对华战略构想中区别于传统冷战思维的新内涵,在战略认知上更新涉华判断,臆想当前中国战略"脆弱点",批判特朗普政府对华"政治惯性",主张从外部瓦解中国;在战略目标上力推拓展核心利益、重塑国际秩序,强调"共同威胁"以重振霸权体系,旨在护持冷战后美国霸权地位;在战略布局层面,提出振兴国家权势和加强对华威慑、明确与华竞争合作界限并煽动意识形态斗争,以全面遏制中国。该报告肆意抹黑中国,错误界定中国国家利益,对中国充满恶意偏见和误判,其战略布局根本无法撼动中国大战略根基。值得警惕的是,该报告的部分战略与政策构想在拜登政府近期政策实践中已有体现,暴露出美国政治精英与知识群体在涉华政策方面具有很大程度上的共同认知。在中美战略竞争常态化下,必须厘清两国关系的"常量"与"变量",做好应对各种风险和挑战的准备,尤其维护好国家意识形态安全。     

回溯性求偿与国际战争的诱发

既有理性主义战争成因理论认为围绕战争的预期效用计算主导着国家冲突行为的选择。将沉没成本和各类既往互动经历纳入效用计算在上述理论路径下被视为非理性行为。这种理论偏见限制了理性主义战争成因理论的解释力。事实上，对于物质和时间沉没成本的关注导致了国家行为体互动时呈现极端的相对收益敏感。为规避特定一方的相对物质收益或时间优势过度累积而使冲突双方实力失衡，自认为处于损失框架下的国家不时地采取无法被对方所接受的回溯性求偿行为，进而使冲突双方的和解方案交集被极大限缩；加之求偿国与被求偿国判断对方所持决策框架时产生的认知落差，冲突双方的风险承担意愿随之增加，同时双方也高估对方的敌意而低估对方的冲突决心，冲突升级为战争的可能性因而增加。2022年的乌克兰危机和第一次世界大战前的军事动员竞赛可以分别论证两类典型的回溯性求偿行为——围绕物质利益争夺展开的受害者—加害者战略互动和为争夺时间优势而被迫采取的后发先至策略——对国际战争的诱发性影响。     

Challenging Bipolarity: The Socialist International and the ‘Chilean Democratic Cause’ during the Cold War

This article analyses, the Socialist International's (SI) new international positioning strategies from a transnational perspective, through its relationship with the Chilean cause in the context of the Cold War détente. Focus will be placed on the SI's strong commitment to the Chilean democratic cause after the coup and its sustained activism during the military regime. Drawing from primary sources in various international archives, this article's main goal is to shed light on the SI's positioning regarding Latin America as a way to challenge the bipolar order.