Explaining Myanmar's regime transition: the periphery is central

In 2010, Myanmar (Burma) held its first elections after 22?years of direct military rule. Few compelling explanations for this regime transition have emerged. This article critiques popular accounts and potential explanations generated by theories of authoritarian “regime breakdown” and “regime maintenance”. It returns instead to the classical literature on military intervention and withdrawal. Military regimes, when not terminated by internal factionalism or external unrest, typically liberalize once they feel they have sufficiently addressed the crises that prompted their seizure of power. This was the case in Myanmar. The military intervened for fear that political unrest and ethnic-minority separatist insurgencies would destroy Myanmar's always-fragile territorial integrity and sovereignty. Far from suddenly liberalizing in 2010, the regime sought to create a “disciplined democracy” to safeguard its preferred social and political order twice before, but was thwarted by societal opposition. Its success in 2010 stemmed from a strategy of coercive state-building and economic incorporation via “ceasefire capitalism”, which weakened and co-opted much of the opposition. Having altered the balance of forces in its favour, the regime felt sufficiently confident to impose its preferred settlement. However, the transition neither reflected total “victory” for the military nor secured a genuine or lasting peace.     

Hitting the right target: EU and Security Council pursuit of terrorist financing

This article analyses one specific instance of the use of targeted sanctions to combat the financing of terrorism by the European Union on behalf of the United Nations Security Council. The case raised a number of issues involving the use of sanctions against non-state actors and provoked a legal challenge at the European Court of Justice. These European court cases have been portrayed as a challenge to the use of targeted sanctions by the Security Council to maintain international peace and security. The fundamental critique here is that targeted sanctions must adhere to due process and the rule of law in order to protect individual human rights.     

Claims to legitimacy count: Why sanctions fail to instigate democratisation in authoritarian regimes

International sanctions are one of the most commonly used tools to instigate democratisation in the post‐Cold War era. However, despite long‐term sanction pressure by the European Union, the United States and/or the United Nations, non‐democratic rule has proven to be extremely persistent. Which domestic and international factors account for the regimes' ability to resist external pressure? Based on a new global dataset on sanctions from 1990 to 2011, the results of a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) provide new insights for the research on sanctions and on authoritarian regimes. Most significantly, sanctions strengthen authoritarian rule if the regime manages to incorporate their existence into its legitimation strategy. Such an unintended ‘rally‐round‐the‐flag’ effect occurs where sanctions are imposed on regimes that possess strong claims to legitimacy and have only limited economic and societal linkages to the sender of sanctions.     

美国社区矫正体制的中间制裁制度

美国社区矫正体制的中间制裁制度始兴于20世纪80年代,是一种惩罚程度介于监狱监禁和传统的缓刑、假释之间的社区化行刑方式。作为社区矫正罪犯数量增加和社区公共安全保障的妥协产物,具有一定惩罚性的中间制裁主要包括严密的缓刑和假释监督、住宅禁闭与电子监控、军训式矫正中心、日报告中心、返回社区训练所、日罚金和社区服务等类型,以分层控制体系实现保障社区安全和改造罪犯的双重目的。各种制裁措施的适用依据是罪犯的罪行严重程度、矫治和服务需要。中间制裁的应用取得了一定成效,但也引发了一些问题。     

The target strikes back: explaining countersanctions and Russia’s strategy of differentiated retaliation

This article analyzes Russia’s retaliatory food embargo, explaining why the Russian government banned some imports from the West but refrained from banning a range of equally plausible others. I argue that Moscow was following a strategy of differentiated retaliation when selecting which imports to embargo. The countersanctions were not designed to mete out equal punishment on all members of the sanctioning coalition. Rather, Russia purposefully crafted the policy to inflict greater economic damage on some states than others. Utilizing an original data-set on all agricultural and food products that Russia imports, I demonstrate that, ceteris paribus, imports of sizeable commercial value to countries the Kremlin has long viewed as the mainstays of anti-Russian policies were far more likely to have been banned. In contrast, the evidence shows that Moscow stayed its hand in dealing with Europe’s major powers. This analysis both illuminates the policy objectives being pursued by a leading actor in world politics, as well as lays the groundwork for theoretically understanding the geostrategic, political, and economic drivers of countersanctions.     

Commonwealth Diplomacy and the End of Apartheid

This article recounts the struggle that those fighting for an end to apartheid in South Africa faced and the role that the Commonwealth played in that struggle. The author recounts the contribution of the Whitlam, Fraser and Hawke administrations in Australia in bringing down the apartheid regime but stresses that these leaders chose the Commonwealth as their primary vehicle for change. In the author’s view, the fight against apartheid was, arguably, the finest achievement of the modern Commonwealth.     

Perception of risks associated with economic sanctions: the case of Russian manufacturing

This paper is focused on assessing the risk factors for Russian manufacturing firms posed by sanctions imposed on Russia by the EU, US, and other countries in 2014. While there is an extensive literature assessing the successes and failures of international sanctions on the economies of both those imposing and targeted by sanctions on a macroeconomic level, we are more interested in trying to understand the corporate response – i.e. which firms evaluate the introduction and increasing scale of economic sanctions as a threat to their corporate strategy, and their possible reactions aimed at adjusting to a changing environment due to the geopolitical shock. Our research, based on a recent survey of manufacturing companies, provides evidence that over the last decade Russian manufacturing firms have become much more integrated into the global economy than is commonly assumed, through foreign direct investment, foreign trade (including imports of both technological equipment and raw materials and components), international partnerships, and by extensively supplying foreign companies that operate in Russia. Considering the self-selection effect of the top-performing firms in terms of foreign trade, we can state that sanctions could prove most harmful not only for the targeted firms, but for the entire population of better-performing and globalized firms involved in foreign trade with the EU and Ukraine. Thus, the impact of the sanctions on the prospects of the Russian manufacturing sector may be very strong over the medium-to-long term.     

A study in contrasts

In this personal view of a 'second generation' psychoanalyst in Vienna, private life events are counterposed to political and social developments in Austria over the last twenty-five years, leading up to the phenomenon of Jörg Haider and the recent formation of the new Austrian government including his Freedom Party (FPÖ). In particular, de Mendelssohn discusses the resurgence of openly antisemitic utterances and racist electoral platforms, both against the larger background of historical precedents and against the smaller one of a psychoanalytic study group set up to enquire into the unconscious motives and fantasies involved in this resurgence. Although the emergence of public prejudice is an alarming sign, de Mendelssohn points to mitigating factors. On the one hand there is the possibility of seeing Austria as a 'test case' for similar, often more actively violent eruptions in other European countries, one in which coping strategies may be developed while there is still time. Here he sees the EU sanctions against Austria as fully justified. On the other hand there is an active and younger generation and a solid history of civil protest that may help strengthen Austria's rather weak democratic traditions. As an analogue to Freud's individual psychoanalysis, in which the 'return of the repressed' is seen as a painful experience but necessary for insight and growth, the resurgence of quasi-racist politics in Austria may be seen as a necessary result of long years of being more or less taboo, with the hope that there can be a 'working through' of inter-generational dislocation and social amnesia.     

我国刑事二审发回重审制度的实然分析与规范设计

刑事二审发回重审制度在一定程度上实现了上级法院对下级法院的监督且有利于发现事实真相,但它在理论和实践中也出现了很多问题。通过对发回重审立法规定的合理性和实践成效及问题进行实然分析,将揭示出我国发回重审制度在实现其实体性补救和程序性制裁功能时所体现出的缺陷。在此基础上提出修改建议,完善该制度就具有十分重要的意义。