Editor's note

This study applies Elisabeth Noelle‐Neumann's spiral of silence theory to the controversial issue of whether children with AIDS should be allowed to attend public school. The study tests the theory's hypotheses in light of two content analyses of the media's treatment of the issue. The findings offer tentative and qualified support for Noelle‐Neumann's theoretical propositions about the relationship between individuals' perceptions of the issue and the media's tenor of the issue; particularly that of television. The findings suggest the need to address the role of other agents of influence, including reference groups, and to use time‐based data to unravel the causal order of the relationships.     

Detectives Stories and City Life

Detective stories take place mainly in two settings, constantly changing, many faceted big cities filled with strangers, and stable, fairly homogeneous, innocent small towns whose members know one another. The differences in each clarify the qualities of the other. In solving the mystery of the small town, the detective provides moral instruction and restores the town’s innocence. In solving the mystery in the big city the detective reveals the city as part of the mystery and provides the reader with temporary orientation to the city. Mysteries have grown with the growth of the cities and now appear in every country of the world. Harold J. Bershady is an emeritus Professor of Sociology at the University of Pennsylvania. His most recent book, edited with Renée Fox and Victor Lidz, is After Parson: A Theory of Action for the 21st Century, published by Russell Sage Press, 2005.     

浅析劳动教养制度之改革

劳动教养制度如何改革一直是我国行政法、刑法学界以及实务界长期争论的问题。通过对目前几种劳教制度改革方案的分析,劳教制度改革的核心问题是认清和把握好施行劳教制度的价值取向问题。劳教制度改革的核心价值取向是“人权保障优先”。     

论“附保护第三人作用的契约”

自德国产生“附保护第三人作用的契约”以来,其在德国的判例与学说中不断发展、繁荣。我国现也有不少学者在对其加以研究。其中最困难之处在于如何解释“附保护第三人作用的契约”与“债权相对性”之矛盾。笔者从契约效力根源的角度提出“系统契约论”,解释了“附保护第三人作用的契约”之理论根基,认为我国应引进此制度,并将其继续应用到“附保护第三人作用的契约”的构成要件、法律效果、与侵权法之边界等问题,也附带地以“系统契约论”解释了契约法上之其他问题。     

To Give or Not to Give: Modeling Individuals' Contribution Decisions

Employing data from a recent national survey on campaign finance, we examine the contribution behavior of individual citizens in the 2000 election. By disaggregating types of contributions, our model enables us to observe potential heterogeneity in the determinants of giving money to parties and candidates. We find that for both types of contributions, the effects of informational resources and solicitation on the decision to contribute outweigh those of financial resources. In addition, we propose both a theoretical and an empirical distinction between the selection effects of solicitation and the stimulus effects of solicitation. By distinguishing between these dual dimensions of solicitation, our analysis provides new insight into the causal linkages between income, solicitation, and contributions. We find that while solicitation increases the likelihood of contributing through selective targeting or rational prospecting, it also does so through a stimulus mechanism.     

Assessing Stability and Change in Criminal Offending: A Comparison of Random Effects, Semiparametric, and Fixed Effects Modeling Strategies

An important theoretical problem for criminologists is an explanation forthe robust positive correlation between prior and future criminaloffending. Nagin and Paternoster (1991) have suggested that the correlationcould be due to time-stable population differences in the underlyingproneness to commit crimes (population heterogeneity) and/or thecriminogenic effect that crime has on social bonds, conventionalattachments, and the like (state dependence). Because of data andmeasurement limitations, the disentangling of population heterogeneityand state dependence requires that researchers control for unmeasuredpersistent heterogeneity. Frequently, random effects probit models havebeen employed, which, while user-friendly, make a strong parametricassumption that the unobserved heterogeneity in the population follows anormal distribution. Although semiparametric alternatives to the randomeffects probit model have recently appeared in the literature to avoid thisproblem, in this paper we return to reconsider the fully parametric model. Viasimulation evidence, we first show that the random effects probit modelproduces biased estimates as the departure of heterogeneity from normalitybecomes more substantial. Using the 1958 Philadelphia cohort data, we thencompare the results from a random effects probit model with a semiparametricprobit model and a fixed effects logit model that makes no assumptions aboutthe distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We found that with this dataset all three models converged on the same substantive result—evenafter controlling for unobserved persistent heterogeneity, with models thattreat the unobserved heterogeneity very differently, prior conduct had apronounced effect on subsequent offending. These results are inconsistentwith a model that attributes all of the positive correlation between priorand future offending to differences in criminal propensity. Sinceresearchers will often be completely blind with respect to the tenabilityof the normality assumption, we conclude that different estimationstrategies should be brought to bear on the data.     

试论《劳动合同法》的实施效果与运行障碍

<劳动合同法>的颁布和实施引起强烈的社会反响,人们寄望于这部法律扭转当前的劳资格局,建立和谐稳定的劳动关系.但是,这部法律的良好实施取决于用人单位守法的自觉度、劳动者权利意识的觉醒度和劳动保障监察的力度.只有改革现行的社会保险制度,细化<劳动合同法>的抽象条款,加大<劳动合同法>的宣传力度和监察力度,才能取得良好的实施效果.     

两岸政治定位的瓶颈

面对破解＂两岸政治定位＂这一难题,两岸学者都做出了努力。本文探讨双方已有的共识与分歧,并重点分析两个最受关注的方案———台湾学者张亚中的＂一中三宪论＂与大陆学者刘国深的＂球体理论＂。研究发现台湾学者始终坚持＂中华民国是主权国家＂的底线,而大陆学者则在如何面对＂中华民国＂问题上前进了一步。本文认为＂是否敢于突破底线＂与＂是否存在解决难题的意愿＂是两岸政治定位问题的两个瓶颈,希望两岸学者在现有基础上继续前进,不要后退,坦诚交流,共同建构两岸和平发展的理论框架,寻求更多更好的解决方案。     

中国情景下的非营利组织市场导向结构研究

在文献回顾的基础上,通过访谈、预试和大样本调查,对我国非营利组织市场导向的结构进行了实证研究.根据访谈内容的编码分析和预试,初步确定非营利组织市场导向量表的题项.采用探索性因子分析、验证性因子分析和结构方程模型.对来自223家非营利组织的问卷调查数据进行了分析.结果表明,我国非营利组织市场导向是一个五因子的结构模型:顾客导向、内部协调、信息收集、行动反应、强调生存.所发展出的非营利组织市场导向量表具有良好的信度水平、收敛效度和区别效度;法理效度的检验还同时表明了非营利组织市场导向对组织的顾客绩效和财务绩效均具有显著正向影响.测量结果显示,样本非营利组织的总体市场导向程度偏低,另外从各组成维度来看,样本非营利组织在实施市场导向活动时,一般较为关注顾客导向、行动反应和内部协调.但是对信息收集和强调生存等方面尚未给予足够的重视.     

《反垄断法》实施的预期效应探究

我国的《反垄断法》是国家基于“公平与效率”的价值追求而创设的市场经济基础·肄法律，旨在维护市场有序竞争，落实国家竞争、产业等经济政策，实现国家经济管理职能。它的实施必将产生一系列预期效应：国家竞争政策统一、反垄断指南具法律效力、“成文法”与“判例法”相融合、为保护国家利益增添新的法律手段以及促进我国行政管理体制的进一步改革等。