Growth curves of deviant behavior in early adolescence: A multilevel analysis

Multilevel growth curve models provide a means of analyzing individual differences in the growth of deviance, allow a number of theories to be integrated in a single model, and can help to unify research on deviant/delinquent/criminal careers at different stages of the life cycle. Building on the distinction between population heterogeneity and state dependence as alternative explanations of persistent individual differences in deviance (Heckman, 1981; Nagin and Paternoster, 1991), we show that models with two levels can be used to represent and analyze a variety of criminological theories. The first level (level 1) uses repeated measurements on individuals to estimate individual-level growth curves. The second level treats the level 1 growth curve parameters (e.g., slope, intercept) as outcome variables and uses time-invariant factors to explain variation in these parameters across individuals. We illustrate this approach by estimating a model of growth in deviance drawn from Gottfredson and Hirschi's deviant propensity theory. An innovative feature is the assumption that adolescents' expected growth curves of deviance follow a classical Pearl-Verhulst logistic growth model (Pearl, 1930). The results suggest that five risk factors—parental psychiatric problems, lack of parental support, living arrangements with zero or one parent in residence, low family income, and male gender—have strongly positive effects on deviant propensity. For example, adolescents with no supportive parents, and no other risk factors, have expected asymptotic levels of deviance (peak levels attained at about age 18) that are about twice as high as those of adolescents with no risk factors. Yet more than two-thirds of the individual-level variability in growth curves is unexplained by the five risk factors. This unobserved heterogeneity would remain hidden in analyses using conventional structural equations models and the same explanatory variables.     

关于社会犯罪统计理论与时间序列分析的研究

文章基于社会犯罪发生的基本特征,从信息科学研究的角度讨论了社会犯罪统计的意义和特点,提出了在犯罪统计理论研究中应采用的理论和方法。同时,讨论了犯罪时间序列分析的意义和方法,最后提出了在这一领域的研究方向。     

Diffusion in Homicide: Exploring a General Method for Detecting Spatial Diffusion Processes

This article proposes a new method for examining dynamic changes in thespatial distribution of a phenomenon. Recently introduced exploratoryspatial data analysis (ESDA) techniques provide social scientists with anew set of tools for distinguishing between random and nonrandom spatialpatterns of events (Anselin, 1998). Existing ESDA measures, however, arestatic and do not permit comparisons of distributions of events in the samespace but across different time periods. One ESDA method—the Moranscatterplot—has special heuristic value because it visually displayslocal spatial relationships between each spatial unit and its neighbors. Weextend this static cross-sectional view of the spatial distribution ofevents to consider dynamic features of changes over time in spatialdependencies. The method distinguishes between contagious diffusion betweenadjoining units and hierarchical diffusion that spreads broadly throughcommonly shared influences. We apply the method to homicide data, lookingfor evidence of spatial diffusion of youth-gang homicides acrossneighborhoods in a city. Contagious diffusion between neighboring censustracts is evident only during the year of peak growth in total homicides,when high local rates of youth-gang homicides are followed by significantincreases in neighboring youth- nongang rates. This pattern is consistentwith a spread of homicides from gang youth to nongang youth. Otherwise, theincreases in both youth-gang and youth- nongang homicides generally occursimultaneously in nonneighboring tracts.     

Continuity in crime: Sex and age differences

This study deals primarily with the question of continuity in serious criminality. The study follows a cohort consisting of 15,117 individuals from the age of 15 years through the age of 30 years. The age-based transition probabilities are studied, both for males and for females, showing that the transitions for females conform to a first-order Markov chain, so that the original matrices can be seen as estimates from a single parent matrix. This was not the case for males. The predictive power of prior criminality for later transition probabilities is also studied. Finally, the difference between stating that a given percentage will relapse in crime and the ability to make real prediction is emphasized.     

Microgeographic variation of Y-chromosome haplotypes in Italy

Within an Italian collaborative exercise on the extended haplotype of the Y-chromosome, 1288 subjects were typed by the AmpFlSTR YFiler Amplification Kit (AB Applied Biosystems) and other 526 were typed by the PowerPlex Y^® System (Promega). The sampling scheme included either a “regional” or a “local” recruitment, the first referring to individuals born in the region of the participating lab, the second referring to individuals coming from small villages. Total sample sizes were N = 954 and 860, respectively. A significant decrease of haplotype diversity was found in the local samples. The results may be of interest in forensic applications of the Y-chromosome.     

Privacy and personal data protection in China: An update for the year end 2009

This paper explores developments in privacy and data protection regulation in China. It argues that, since China is an emerging global economic power, the combination of domestic social economic development, international trade and economic exchange will encourage China to observe international standards of privacy and personal data protection in its future regulatory response.     

Exploring the social organisation and structure of stolen data markets

As consumers are increasingly using the Internet to manage their finances, there has been a concomitant increase in the risk of theft and fraud by cybercriminals. Hackers who acquire sensitive consumer data utilise information on their own, or sell the information in online forums for a significant profit. Few have considered the organisational composition of the participants engaged in the sale of stolen data, including the presence of managerial oversight, division of labour, coordination of roles and purposive associations between buyers, sellers and forum operators. Thus, this qualitative study will apply Best and Luckenbill's framework of social organisation to a sample of threads from publicly accessible web forums where individuals buy and sell stolen financial information. The implications of this study for criminologists, law enforcement, the intelligence community and information security researchers will be discussed in depth.     

从不可见数据获得计算机犯罪证据和线索

有经验的犯罪分子都会尽可能地销毁在系统中留下的痕迹，他们使用的方法通常是删除系统日志和相关文件。因此取证工作往往需要从不可见数据中获得证据和线索，通过特定的技术手段进行分析还原电子证据的真实形态，为案件提供证据支持。     

Microgeographic genetic variation of Y chromosome in a population sample of Ravenna's area in the Emilia-Romagna region (North of Italy)

The analysis of the genetic structure of regions with a complex demographic history shed light on the various topographic, linguistic and historical influences which form the present genetic landscape of Europe. In the Emilia-Romagna region (North of Italy) Ravenna is a geographical area with a historical complex background: it was an important seaport on the Mediterranean sea, the capital of the Ostrogothic kingdom of Italy and the seat of the Byzantine governor of Italy. The purpose of this study was to investigate the microgeographic variation of Y chromosome haplotypes of the area of Ravenna by analyzing 17 Y-chromosome short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) in 122 unrelated males. 100% of all haplotypes were different. A comparison with neighbouring Italian as well as with European and Levante root populations was done by AMOVA and visualized by a phylogenetic tree. The two main haplogroups found in this area were R1b and E3b1. The results of the present study add to the data for the forensic databases and can be useful also for anthropological studies.     

美国行政法法官集中使用制度研究

行政法法官是美国行政法中颇具特色的制度,上世纪40年代,加州试验将部分行政法法官集中合署办公,由此掀开地方行政法法官集中使用制度的序幕。行政法法官集中使用制度的理论、地方实践、成功经验和推行行政法法官集中使用制度的前景,对行政法法官制度乃至美国行政法的这一新发展更深入地了解,对完善我国有关行政法律制度将会有所借鉴和帮助。