What Is In a (Non‐) Significant Finding? Moving Beyond False Dichotomies

One of the most problematic aspect of p‐values is the tendency to dichotomize, whereby statistical significance is equated with scientifically worthwhile and insignificance with worthless findings. This article outlines two approaches that move beyond such dichotomies: minimum Bayes factors and the analysis of credibility. Their use is illustrated through a simple example. The examples show that significant findings may not always be as telling as statistical significance would suggest, whereas non‐significant findings may contain considerable evidence about effects.     

ISO Standards Addressing Issues of Bias and Impartiality in Forensic Work

The ISO/IEC 17020 and 17025 standards both include requirements for impartiality and the freedom from bias. Meeting these requirements for implicit cognitive bias is not a simple matter. In this article, we address these international standards, specifically focusing on evaluating and mitigating the risk to impartiality, and quality assurance checks, so as to meet accreditation program requirements. We cover their meaning to management as well as to practitioners, addressing how these issues of impartiality and bias relate to forensic work, and how one can effectively evaluate and mitigate those risks. We then elaborate on specific quality assurance policies and checks and identify when corrective action may be appropriate. These measures will not only serve to meet ISO/IEC 17020 and 17025 requirements, but also enhance forensic work and decision-making.     

法律缺位的背后--亲子鉴定诉讼中的若干问题探讨

亲子关系诉讼的法律调控体现了较强的国家政策性和社会道德伦理价值观,其本身所具有的特点及强烈的社会公益性决定了法院在审理亲子关系诉讼的案件时应从严掌握亲子鉴定的适用条件,将子女最大利益原则作为此类诉讼的最根本原则.在当事人无正当理由拒绝进行亲子鉴定时,法院可适用间接强制推定另一方当事人主张的待证事实为真实.同时,应从法律上规范亲子鉴定的相关标准和程序.     

Testing Theory and the Analysis of Time Series Data

Although the relationship between unemployment and crime has been a longstanding interest in criminology, there is little agreement about appropriate models for analyzing this relationship. David Greenberg's (this issue) discussion highlights two issues that raise questions about recent research on the unemployment–crime relationship. First, he extends the work of Hale and Sabbagh (1991) and argues that cointegration methods should be used instead of first-differenced regression models to analyze unemployment and crime time series data. Second, he argues that previous attempts to test his strain theory linking unemployment to the age distribution of crime rely on flawed hypotheses, inappropriate data, and faulty measurement. In this paper, I address both of Greenberg's claims. I begin with a discussion of the relative utility of cointegration analysis and of first-differenced regression models for the analysis of the unemployment–crime relationship, focusing on the link between theory and statistical model. I then discuss the possibility of ever testing and falsifying Greenberg's strain theory.     

When DNA is Not Available,Can We Still Identify People? Recommendations for Best Practice*

Recommendations of best practice to conduct identifications in settings with large numbers of victims and technological limitations are provided, based on a sample of 116 cases in which positive presumptive identifications were generated using "traditional" techniques, and were later corroborated through DNA testing. Traditional techniques generally consist of combining witness testimony, personal effects and clothing, anthropological and dental data to corroborate or to exclude the identity of an individual. Experts participating in traditional identifications must develop emic categories to transform objective physical features into recognizable categories by the family, or to do very the opposite-to develop an ethic system by which the expert translates the cues given by a family member into objective categories that are usable in standard forensic and legal contexts.     

Rebelling Against Research Methods? Using Frank Sulloway's Born to Rebel to Teach Research Methods

This article proposes the use of Frank Sulloway's Born to Rebel: Birth Order, Family Dynamics, and Creative Lives to teach standards for good and bad research. It describes ways the book can be employed to assess an assiduous but perhaps overambitious researcher's use of such devices as coding, expert ratings, significance testing, etc, and offers references to critical assessments of Sulloway's book which can guide the students as they draw their own conclusions about the quality and durability of his methods and findings.     

PMLJ14-HaeⅢ单位点DNA图谱技术在法医学中的应用

通过对269个无关个体DNA中PMLJ14探针的识别位点的HaeⅢ酶解多态性研究,经计算机系统统计处理,得出各片段的频率分布,计算出应用此方法在个人识别中的准确率为99～99.98％,在亲权鉴定中的准确率为91.4～98.6％。保存4年后条件较好的血斑和精斑仍能得到较为清晰的图谱。已将此方法应用于某些案件的鉴定之中。     

HLA血型亲权鉴定系统分析软件的开发及应用

应用FoxPro2．5系统开发了HLA亲权鉴定软件,程序运行中有汉字提示,使用方便。对63例HLA亲权鉴定案例进行复核计算,所得结果与人工计算结果一致,证明程序计算结果可靠,可在实际检案中应用。     

HLA-DRB1位点的PCR-SSP分型在亲子鉴定中的应用研究

应用PCR－SSP（PCRamplificationwithsequencespecificprimer）方法将HLAⅡ类DRB1位点基因分型应用于亲权鉴定。对42例亲子鉴定案例进行分析研究的结果表明,本方法简单、快速、结果可靠,且具有较高的非父排除概率（66．3％）,不仅适用于法医学亲手鉴定和个人识别,亦可应用于移植配型、HLA相关疾病及人类遗传学研究。     

DNA数据库9个STR基因座比中认定亲权的可靠性分析

目的探讨Profiler plus试剂盒9个常染色体STR基因座用于DNA数据库中双亲亲缘关系比中结果认定亲权的可靠性。方法在DNA数据库中搜集无关个体与已知母子（或父子）在9个STR基因座不排除亲缘关系的比中记录54例，组成54例假定的三联体家庭，计算其PI值与RCP值；应用Identifiler试剂盒加做到15个常染色体STR基因座，观察其排除情况。结果在54例假定三联体中PI值最低为178．598597（RCP=99．443203％），最高为97318．085812（RCP=99．998972％）。加做到15个STR基因座后，54例假定三联体中每个三联体至少出现2个基因座排除，最多5个基因座出现排除的现象，平均排除基因座数为3．52个。结论Profilerplus试剂盒9个STR基因座用于亲缘关系鉴定可能出现错误结论；单纯利用RCP值来认定亲缘关系是不安全的；建议应用16个或更多的基因座建设DNA数据库和进行亲缘关系判定。