首都人口调控的思路和建议--以北京新机场建设中流动人口问题为例[1]

在北京大兴新机场建设过程中，将有大量人口涌入北京市大兴区南五镇。如何在这些重点区域调控人口，避免出现城乡结合部乱象，这既需要处理好经济发展与人口涌入的关系、社会综合治理与服务首都发展的关系、政府主导与市场调节的关系以及改革发展提升地区整体实力与提升百姓生活幸福感的关系，又应做到服务与管理并驾齐驱，按照需求做好产业整体布局，有效掌控人口数据、建立门禁制度管理出租房屋等。     

Where Does Location Affordability Drive Residential Mobility? An Analysis of Origin and Destination Communities

Abstract

Despite an overall decrease in residential mobility after the 2007 housing crisis, many households, particularly those that are low income, continue to move in pursuit of a better life. Traditional theories of residential mobility suggest that mobility will occur when housing and transportation costs are cumulatively greater than the cost of moving to a new location. At the same time, the influence of these factors is not likely to be uniform across geographic contexts or for moves up or down the metropolitan hierarchy. Our analysis examines how well affordability measures explain patterns of county-level residential mobility. Specifically, we contrast conventional measures of affordability focused on the ratio of income to housing expense with measures of location affordability that factor in both housing and transportation costs. We find that whereas households tend to move from lower to higher cost locations, transit affordability at the destination plays an important role in mobility decisions.     

Position Effect on Facial Soft Tissue Depths: A Sonographic Investigation

The head is positioned erect for an approximation; yet most facial soft tissue depths (FSTD) used are measured from supine subjects. Depth difference might be significant, but there is a paucity of data to verify. This study compared erect and supine values for 17 landmarks from 30 healthy New Zealand (European population affinity) women (18–30 or 40–55 years) in erect then supine positions. Height, weight, and sonographic FSTD data, totaling 1020 measurements, were obtained. Three midline and seven averaged bilateral values were compared using ANOVA, p values, and Pearson's correlations. Correlative strength of age and body mass index, BMI (kg/m²), was determined by values. Results showed averaged erect and supine differences were significant for four of ten FSTDs. Between individuals, difference was various and not unidirectional. In conclusion, depth differences were observed but not all significant or unidirectional, BMI significantly influenced nine FSTD values, but age group did not.     

流动人口管理中的犯罪情报信息工作

新时期流动人口的特征给流动人口治安管理带来了新的问题,原有的单纯依靠登记、发证来进行管理的做法已明显滞后于形势发展,难以适应现实斗争需要。为实现外来流动人口管理工作新的突破,应该针对流动人口的特点,以动制动、以整驭散,改进和创新工作机制与工作方法,在流动人口管理上实施“情报信息主导警务”的战略,坚持以情报信息工作作为流动人口管理的主导。     

人口老年化进程中的老年犯罪问题初探——以浙江省老年人犯罪为例

老年(龄)化是生产力不断进步,人类社会不断发展的必然趋势。我国自1999年进入老年(龄)化社会后,老年(龄)化速度大大高于世界其他国家。在快速老年(龄)化过程中产生了包括老年犯罪在内的诸多社会问题,解决这些问题才能更好地构建社会主义和谐社会。结合浙江省老年(龄)化实际及老年(龄)化过程中老年人犯罪发展变化实际,阐述两者间关系,提出遏制老年(龄)化进程中老年犯罪的对策。     

论构建和谐社会视野下的流动人口管理与服务

改革开放30年来,流动人口对社会经济发展作出了巨大贡献。但是,由于人们思想认识上的偏差和社会保障制度的缺失,流动人口工作还存在许多问题。在建设和谐社会的大背景下,为做好流动人口工作,应坚持“公平对待、合理引导、完善管理、搞好服务”的原则,以人为本,在服务中实施管理、在管理中体现服务。     

Competing Risks, Persistence, and Desistance in Analyzing Recidivism

A statistical procedure is developed to analyze recidivism in samples whichare subject to the presence of desisters and to multiple modes ofreconviction. This allows for a more accurate study of individuals'transition and hazard in the type and timing of offenses following aspecific type of conviction. The use of a nonparametric approach forinvestigating failure in the presence of other acting causes is shown;initial estimators of the probabilities of reconviction for different typesof offenses are obtained, and the method can be used both to display thedata and to choose an appropriate parametric family for the survivaltimes. An exponential mixture model for competing risks is presented insuch a way that it allows us to adjust for concomitant variables and toassess their effects on the probabilities both of reconviction forpredetermined types of offenses and desistance and of the hazards ofreconviction; a method for assessing calibration of predicted survivalprobabilities is suggested. A 21-year follow-up of persons convicted ofindecent assault on a female in 1973 illustrates the methods; we find ahigh probability of sexual reconviction for individuals with previoussexual convictions and evidence of diversity and a raised hazard ofreconviction for young chronic offenders.     

老龄化是新世纪我国面临的严峻挑战

本首先展望了21世纪我国人口老龄化的发展前景,指出在未来50年中,我国将处于高速度、高水平的老龄化发展进程之中,65岁及以上老年人口将从8000多万增至3亿以上,这对尚处于社会主义初级阶段的国家来说,无疑是个巨大冲击和严峻挑战;分析了老龄化的特殊性及其对社会经济发展所带来的深刻影响和至关重要的制久作用;提出了迎接老龄化挑战是个关系全局性、战略性的重大问题,必须采取有中国特色的正确战略选择。     

危害铁路运输高危人群概念、构成要素及特征之研究

对危害铁路运输高危人群的研究必须植根于对高危人群这一概念内涵及外延的准确把握,因此,研究现有危害铁路运输安全的高危人群的组成结构,对高危人群做一个明确的界定,是"高危人群的识别和控管"这一论题的重要基础。在此基础上通过进一步研究其构成要件、特点,为铁路公安机关实践工作提供客观统一的认定判断标准。这个问题的解决,将有助于铁路公安机关制定有针对性的预防、控制危害铁路运输安全高危人群的对策。     

明清澳门人口变化的历史状况与特点

明中叶以后 ,澳门逐步成为重要的海港城市 ,在明清中外经济文化发展过程中扮演了重要角色。而明清澳门历史发展的轨迹与人口变化的历史状况密切相关 ,二者互为因果 ,双向互动。一方面 ,人口变化的历史状况 ,影响了澳门港市的兴衰 ;而另一方面 ,澳门经济的发展以及中国政治经济局势的影响 ,也制约着明清澳门人口的发展变化。