从永久中立到依附美国——简析战后初期日本政府的国家安全构想

战后初期的日本政府从非武装化的现状出发,积极需求维护国家安全之路。概而言之,其国家安全构想经历了一个从永久中立国到依靠联合国,再到依附美国的演变过程。日本政府决策层最终选择依附美国,是在美苏对立的国际环境下,在被美国占领这一最大现实中,以"追随强者"的结盟心态做出的重大战略决择。在依附美国构想的基础上形成的战后日本国家安全政策目前正处于重要转型期,安倍内阁的国家安全政策走向特别值得关注。     

Relative Placement: The Best Answer for Our Foster Care System

This article briefly traces the history of the placement of children out of their homes because of parental abuse or neglect. The preference for relative placement is a recent occurrence. The advantages of relative placement instead of foster or group care are summarized as well as the disadvantages. Relative placement rates across the country are about 32%. Several jurisdictions have much higher placement rates including Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. Los Angeles, California, is experimenting with social work practices that have produced over 80% relative placement rates during the past year. How both of these jurisdictions accomplish high relative placement rates is described in detail. Judges should persuade their own social service agencies to adopt these practices.     

民间私募基金“收益保底“约定初探

中国民间私募基金中的"收益保底"约定愈发引起各方面的关注.这种约定在法律上是有效的,在经济学上也有其产生和发展的理论根据.民间私募基金中的"收益保底"有着现实的市场基础,具有合理性.它涉及更多的是成熟理性的特定人之间的利益,而不是广大社会公众的利益.在这个意义上,政府、法律对于它的监管应当适当松一些.这是促进私募基金发展的基本策略.     

关于刑讯逼供屡禁不止的法律思考——兼论确立沉默权,完善刑诉制度

没有规定无罪推定原则、没有确立沉默权、没有对逼取的口供作出排除性规定,这是导致我国刑讯逼供屡禁不止的法律根源。笔者认为,应及早从程序立法上构建起根治刑讯逼供的治本机制。为此建议:修改刊诉法第12条,明确规定无罪推定的刑事诉讼原则;把“坦白从宽,抗拒从严”政策法律化;修改刑诉法第93条,确立沉默权;在刑诉法第43条中增加一款,对逼取的口供及据此查获的间接证据作出不能作为定案根据的排除性规定。     

Mainstreaming Therapeutic Jurisprudence in Family Law: The Israeli Child Protection Law as a Case Study

This article considers the contribution of therapeutic jurisprudence (TJ) to the theoretical development and practical advancement of reforms in child care law. It does so by presenting three dilemmas arising from The Israeli Youth Law (Care and Supervision) 1960 relating to its substance, procedures, and practice. TJ is a “field of enquiry” that examines the influence of the law on litigants in order to advance rules and practices that have therapeutic effects and to minimize the use of rules and practices that have antitherapeutic ones. Following the TJ methodology, we integrate psychosocial findings into the legal discussion. We propose some therapeutic practices, as well as legal reform to make the child protection legal regime more TJ friendly for children and families.     

Governance in Central Government: Reconciling Accountability and Capability

Governance structures in central government departments are poorly articulated. Departmental boards were imported from the private sector; in central government their remit and accountability are obscure, as is their role in relation to Permanent Secretaries and Ministers—whose leadership roles are also muddled. This brings costs for Ministers, departments and the public. Improvements have proved elusive, in part because an underlying confusion has been neglected—about how bodies subject to the almost unlimited democratic accountability of Ministers are to be governed. The confusion can be cleared up, principles of governance formulated, and concrete improvements proposed. These include: better articulation of Permanent Secretaries' presumptive leadership role; strengthened lines of external accountability; and more coherent provisions for the role and accountabilities of boards, and their relationship with Ministers, Permanent Secretaries, and the centre of government. Such changes should improve accountability, leadership, capability and delivery.     

Gender quotas and placement mandates in open and closed lists: Similar effects,different mechanisms

In this paper, we argue that placement mandates, that is, regulations for gender ordering in party lists, enhance gender quotas' effectiveness in proportional representation electoral systems, independently of list type. In closed-list systems, placement mandates increase women's representation automatically as a result of the electoral rules, and, for this reason, we call this effect mechanical. In open-list systems, the effect is also strong due to systematic patterns of electoral behavior. We call this effect psychological. In order to demonstrate this, we analyze 140 Latin American legislative elections carried out between 1990 and 2018. Then, we compare the two most similar cases of open-list systems with different rules for placement mandates to illustrate the occurrence of the psychological effect. This is the first article to argue that placement mandates have similar effects in both kinds of lists as a function of distinct mechanisms.     

基于马尔可夫转移概率的外来常住人口居住需求预测

住房供需矛盾的根本问题在于住房需求规模和需求结构如何。本文分析了外来常住人口的居住现状与居留意愿二者联动下对外来常住人口居住需求的影响,并利用灰色模型和马尔可夫(Morkov)转移概率的组合法对大城市外来常住人口的居住需求规模进行预测。通过Logistic模型分析发现,大城市外来常住人口的居住现状质量与居住需求成反比,居留意愿与居住需求成正比,通过灰色模型和Morkov转移概率矩阵方法预测得出一线城市外来常住人口的居住需求呈现上升趋势,2017年到2022年期间,总居住需求从1241万上升到1352万平方米,其中其他住房、政府提供住房和自购住房的居住需求逐年上升,租住私房的居住需求逐年下降。租住私房的居住需求最大,占比60%左右。外来务工人员的总居住需求下降,青年人员和引进人才的总居住需求上升,对比2017年四大城市外来常住人口的住宅供给与居住需求,得出目前四大城市的居住供给已超过居住需求。