制度摩擦何以影响中国预算变迁? ——基于1992—2019年的中国预算变迁数据的实证研究

【问题】间断-均衡预算理论通过美国、欧洲等不同国家的联邦、州与地方政府的预算变迁得到检验,该理论对于中国政策过程和预算过程的适用性如何?制度摩擦假设是否能解释预算变迁的间断性?政治周期是否为替代性假设?【方法】论文通过利用1992—2019年的全国、中央和地方预决算数据,利用正态性检验、L-K值等计算方法实证分析了中国预决算变迁的间断性情况。除此之外,论文还采用了固定效应模型分析了政治周期对预算变迁间断性的影响。【发现】研究发现中国预算变迁遵循间断性逻辑,制度摩擦也是导致间断性差异的重要变量,其中所得税收入分享改革作为制度摩擦的代理变量对中央政府预算间断性的影响更为显著。为了检验间断性的政治周期替代性假设,通过比较党代会周期和中央领导人更替周期的间断性,发现政治周期对预算变迁并没有太明显的影响。【贡献】中国的预算变迁为间断-均衡预算理论提供了新的经验证据,这进一步证明了“一般间断假设”和“公共预算的一般经验法则”,从而为理论的外部有效性提供了更多证据。而制度摩擦和政治周期假设的检验为中国预算变迁的间断性提供了更明确的解释。     

法制现代化成本分析

对法制现代化过程中 ,为建立新的社会秩序模式而增加的投入 ,和因否定旧社会秩序模式而失去的效益等 ,运用微观经济学理论进行了分析 ,描述了法制现代化成本与效益、成本构成以及成本的上下限及极限量的参照标准。     

综论中国法制的近代化

中国法制近代化是中国近代社会政治、经济、文化等发展变迁的必然结果。它是在引进西方法文化的同时 ,批判与吸收中国传统法文化的合理内核的矛盾冲突中逐步推进的。法律移植在中国法律近代化的进程中起了重要作用 ,但正反两方面的经验教训告诉我们 :任何被移植来的西方法制文明因素 ,只有扎入中国的文化土壤 ,得以积淀下来 ,进而成为本民族法文化的一部分 ,才是成功的移植。     

公民有序政治参与的制度化分析

扩大公民有序政治参与是我国社会主义民主政治建设的内在要求。本文以制度为分析视角,在对公民有序政治参与制度化做出界定的基础上,着力分析了在我国实现公民有序政治参与制度化的意义和现实路径。     

“现代化”指标体系研究的再认识——兼论“提前”、“率先”应当慎提

由可操作化的现代化概念到现代化指标体系的出现,是认识的深化,反映了社会的进步.所谓"英格尔斯现代化指标体系"本不存在,却对我国的现代化研究和现代化实践产生了误导.十六大以后国内关于全面小康和现代化的指标体系研究有了新进展,但从一定意义上讲仍然不够科学、不够完善.联合国千年发展目标则代表了目前指标体系研究领域的国际先进水平,引入这一目标体系,将对我国的现代化指标体系研究和全面小康与现代化建设的实践产生积极影响.     

The Stability of Political Attitudes and Behaviors across Adolescence and Early Adulthood: A Comparison of Survey Data on Adolescents and Young Adults in Eight Countries

The persistence of adolescents’ political attitudes and behaviors into adulthood is a perennial concern in research on developmental psychology. While some authors claim that adolescents’ attitudinal patterns will remain relatively stable throughout the life cycle, others argue that the answers of adolescents in political surveys have but a limited predictive value for their future attitudes and behaviors. In this article, we tackle this question on an aggregate level, by comparing survey data for 14, 18 and 18 to 30 year old respondents from eight European countries (n = resp. 22,620; 20,142 and 2800). We examine political trust, attitudes toward immigrants’ rights and voting behavior. The analysis suggests that country patterns with regard to political trust and attitudes toward immigrant rights are already well established by the age of 14. We find less indications for stability in the relation between intention to vote (for 14 and 18 years olds) and actual voting behavior (for young adults). The latent structure of the political trust scale was found to be equivalent for the three age groups we investigated. We close by offering some suggestions on why attitudinal stability seems stronger than behavioral stability.

From Sore Throats to Greenland: Howard Brenton’s Utopian Plays

British playwright Howard Brenton once wrote, “There is an infinite variety of ways of making theatre, but only one theme which, inevitably, Aeschylus was onto—it’s simply ‘how can we live justly?’” Brenton’s entire oeuvre reflects his struggle to answer this basic question but he has specifically characterized three of his plays as Utopian. These are Sore Throats, Bloody Poetry, and Greenland. The plays comprise a journey which begins, in the playwright’s words, “far from human dignity and peace” and ends 700 years from now with a vision of Brenton’s hopes for the future: “how I hope my children, or my children’s children’s children, will live and think.” The works explore the nature of love, individual relationships, and sexual roles as these relate to issues of power and manipulation. The corrupting power of money, and English complacency and acquiescence, are additional major themes. Finally, they all confront the question of human responsibility and its relationship to the individual and to society. Ultimately, they offer us an unmerciful look at the worst of human nature and a liberating vision of the good we are capable of achieving.