台湾的大学生对《两岸服务贸易协议》的看法

2014年3月18日,台湾的学生以及社会团体因为反对两岸服贸协议,进而占领“立法院”,并发起一连串的示威与抗议活动。本研究运用定群追踪数据,以网络民调方式访问台湾地区大三的学生对两岸服贸协议的看法。初步发现：大学生对于服贸协议的态度,受到其政党倾向、统“独”立场以及“台湾人认同”的影响。不过,本研究运用政治情绪的测量也发现：台湾的大学生对于台湾的愤怒与对中国大陆的愤怒,让他们反对两岸服贸协议,但当他们对中国大陆抱持希望时,仍然支持两岸服贸协议。因此,中国大陆的崛起及繁荣与发展,既让台湾的大学生对于台湾的现况感到愤怒,确也对中国大陆充满憧憬。     

美国对台湾“政治安排”的政策及影响

美国对台湾“政治安排”的政策对“合情合理安排两岸政治关系”有重要影响。美国对台湾政治定位的政策是“认知到台湾是中国的一部分”,不支持“台独”或“两个中国”,但同时又“对台湾地位不持立场”。在两岸关系的解决方式方面,美国对台湾的前途持开放立场,但认为应透过对话和平解决,且要尊重两岸民众的意愿。美国这一政策增加了对统一前两岸政治关系做出“合情合理安排”的难度,但在某些方面与大陆对台政策也有一致性。目前,两岸应充分利用这些相契合的政策,推进两岸政治关系做出“合情合理”安排。     

两岸经济合作的政治效应问题探讨

推进两岸经济合作与一体化发展,形成日益紧密的经济共同体,可以巩固和深化两岸关系和平发展的经济基础,有助于推进两岸和平统一,但并非两岸和平统一的充分条件。而且,发挥两岸经济关系对两岸和平统一的促进作用需要相应的主客观条件,至少需要两岸双方的共同政治意愿与积极行动,以便在共同利益不断增进的基础上建构国家认同。民调显示,近年来的两岸经济合作,在“反独”中起到一定的积极作用,但因施行时间较短且尚未充分展开等因素而不足以证实或证伪其在“促统”方面的作用,并面临制约因素。而国家认同的形成,乃是两岸和平统一的关键。因此,必须确立正确的合作理念,坚持特定的推进原则,选择适宜的推进方式,以提升两岸经济合作的政治效应。     

Rejecting representation? Party systems and popular support for referendums in Europe

Under what conditions do citizens favor deciding political issues by popular vote? Models of support for popular vote processes usually consider the influence of individual attitudes such as political trust and interest in politics. But much less is known about the effect of institutional variables on support for popular vote processes. This article builds on research showing that disaffection with elected officials shapes support for referendums by considering the influence of the party system. First, an analysis of multilevel data from twenty-four European democracies indicates that individuals are more supportive of referendums in countries with fewer effective political parties. Second, a mediation analysis provides evidence that the number of parties influences referendum support through individual-level political trust and external efficacy. Where there are fewer viable parties, feelings that elected officials are unresponsive tend to increase popular support for referendums. These findings suggest a trade-off between available representation by political parties and support for direct influence over public policy.     

Reproductive health services: “Business-in-a-Box” as a model social innovation

Access to reproductive health services and products in remote and rural communities is a critical area of concern for developing countries. This article considers a pilot intervention in three districts of Pakistan where “Business-in-a-Box” as a model of place-based social innovation is used to improve the socio-economic conditions of women in remote rural settings through socially responsible micro-franchising. It finds that such programmes help build a sense of community, ownership and grassroots capabilities and skills. The article also discusses the impacts of such actions on the individual and community life, and the need to upscale and sustain these initiatives.     

Uncovering land tenure insecurities: tips for tenure responsive land-use planning in Ethiopia

Land-use planning, although a mechanism for development, can also generate insecurity during its implementation. This article argues that tenure security and land-use planning should not be implemented in isolation from each other. It posits that land-use planning – rather than restricting the security of people's tenure – has the potential to serve as a means of securing tenure. The article explores tenure (in)security elements in land-use planning as a crucial challenge in the urban town of Gelan Sidama Awash, Ethiopia. Using data collected through stakeholders’ interviews, it uncovers their tenure security challenges, and outlines a set of measures for enhancing tenure security through land-use planning.     

Regime type versus patronal politics: a comparison of “ardent democrats” in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan

Kazakhstan is home to the longest serving ruler in post-Soviet Eurasia while Kyrgyzstan is among the region’s most competitive polities. Do these regime differences correspond to divergence in political attitudes, as an extensive body of literature posits? Are Kyrgyzstanis more likely to strongly support democratic ideals? Are Kazakhstanis less likely? Contrary to expectations, data reveal the two populations to be attitudinally indistinguishable when it comes to strong support for practices associated with democracy. Whatever country differences we find are minor or statistically insignificant. We explain this convergence by shifting focus away from the political features that distinguish the two nascent democracy versus consolidated authoritarianism to those that they hold in common. Notwithstanding major constitutional reform in Kyrgyzstan in 2010, politics there, as in Kazakhstan, remains fundamentally patronal, or patronage- based. Mass attitudes, we argue, align in many ways with the countries’ shared patronal politics, rather than with their contrasting regime types.     

Revisiting Transnational European Consociationalism: The European Union a Decade After Lisbon

This article discusses the notion of consociationalism as applied to the EU and assesses whether the institutional and procedural changes introduced by the Treaty of Lisbon (ToL) and by the management of the Euro and refugee crises still warrant considering the EU as a case of consociational democracy. Our contention is that the changes introduced by the ToL bore the promise to strengthen the consociational structural traits of the Union but that the further institutional and procedural changes engendered by the management of the Euro and refugee crises have made the behavioral dimension of consociationalism all the more necessary just as the accommodating orientation of the political elites had begun to evaporate. We support this argument by looking at empirical evidence which allows us to offer a set of propositions on the effects of the recent crises on the attitudes of the European elites towards the future of EU democracy.     

Gender Differences in Political Knowledge: Distinguishing Characteristics-Based and Returns-Based Differences

This study assesses whether gender-based differences in political knowledge primarily result from differences in observable attributes or from differences in returns for otherwise equivalent characteristics. It applies a statistical decomposition methodology to data obtained from the 1992–2004 American National Election Studies. There is a consistent 10-point gender gap in measured political knowledge, of which approximately one-third is due to gender-based differences in the characteristics that predict political knowledge, with the remaining two-thirds due to male–female differences in the returns to these characteristics. The methodology identifies the relative contribution of the predictors of political knowledge to each portion of the gap, and then uses this information to elucidate the underlying sources of the political knowledge gender gap and its prognosis. Education is the characteristic that most clearly enlarges the gap, with men receiving significantly larger returns to political knowledge from education than women. Group membership reduces the gap as women obtain gains in political knowledge from belonging to organizations that do not accrue to men. However, these gains are not sufficient to significantly reduce the gap.

The Attitudes of the Chinese Middle Class Towards Democracy

Little has been done to quantitatively establish the connection between the middle class and a specific regime type. In an effort to fill in the gap, this study uses Asian Barometer survey dataset to examine the attitudes and orientation of China’s rising middle class. We find that the Chinese middle class does show higher democratic orientation than those we categorize as lower class, but only if class is defined by occupation or by self-identification, and not by income level. We interpret this result to mean that economic development offers new life experiences with the creation of new types of professions and enhances people’s agreement with modern democratic values by arousing people’s consciousness of their new social class status.