阿富汗变局后的中亚安全:大国博弈与地区合作

阿富汗与中亚有着非常密切的历史文化联系,同时阿富汗问题对中亚安全构成了直接威胁.随着2021年美国仓促撤军、塔利班重新夺取政权,中亚战略地位的特殊性引发大国为争夺地区安全和经济主导权展开新一轮地缘政治竞争,中亚地区的和平与稳定又遭遇新的挑战.本文通过对新形势下中亚地区安全的新特征、新变化的梳理和分析,发现阿富汗变局后中...     

Measuring party positions and issue salience from media coverage: Discussing and cross-validating new indicators

Recent studies have started to use media data to measure party positions and issue salience. The aim of this article is to compare and cross-validate this alternative approach with the more commonly used party manifestos, expert judgments and mass surveys. To this purpose, we present two methods to generate indicators of party positions and issue salience from media coverage: the core sentence approach and political claims analysis. Our cross-validation shows that with regard to party positions, indicators derived from the media converge with traditionally used measurements from party manifestos, mass surveys and expert judgments, but that salience indicators measure different underlying constructs. We conclude with a discussion of specific research questions for which media data offer potential advantages over more established methods.     

Second-order effects plus pan-European political swings: An analysis of European Parliament elections across time

After seven waves of European Parliament elections and European Union enlargement to 27 states, the time is ripe to analyse the temporal robustness of the second-order model. We pool all the elections in a single evaluation and also look at election-by-election variations. We analyse changes in party performance over time in all EU states as well as in the ‘original 10’, to see whether any cross-time changes are driven by the changing composition of the EU. We also look for pan-European trends in each election, as a way identifying ‘European effects’ distinct from second-order effects. There are few consistent winners and losers, although socialist parties performed worse in the last three elections than their size and government status would predict.     

Political learning during the 2000 U.S. presidential election: The impact of the campaign on the gender gap in political knowledge

We examine how political campaigns influence individuals’ levels of correct, incorrect, and don’t know responses and the gender gap in political knowledge during the 2000 American presidential campaign. Using data from the 2000 National Annenberg Election Survey (NAES), we demonstrate that as the campaign progresses the electorate provides more correct answers and fewer incorrect answers. Moreover, the political campaign significantly reduces (and possibly eliminates) the direct effect of sex on political knowledge. While the political campaign decreases the number of incorrect answers provided by both men and women, the number of correct answers provided by women increases. Our findings highlight the importance of the political campaign in determining relative levels of political knowledge for men and women.     

Optimists and skeptics: Why do people believe in the value of their single vote?

We investigate the origins of voters' beliefs about the value of their single vote. We construe such beliefs as a function of psychological predispositions and exposure to information about the competitiveness of the electoral race. We test this theoretical model using data from the 2008 Canadian federal election and a new survey question tapping voters' beliefs about whether their vote can make a difference. Our results show that sense of efficacy has a strong effect, efficacious voters being more prone to optimism. Competitiveness of the race also matters, but only among attentive voters.     

论民族认同理论及其融入高校思想政治理论课的思考

全球化和多元化的时代趋势使人们的国家民族意识受到严重冲击和挑战,民族认同理论作为解决问题的对策被纳入研究者的视野并引起多个学科领域的广泛关注。民族认同的概念非由民族、认同两概念的简单组合,但同两者的内涵、外延有着密切关联;民族、认同两概念的双重属性能推导出民族认同的双重属性。民族认同具有重要的理论意义和实践价值,在理论上拓展和创新了爱国主义,在实践中有利于民族问题的解决和各民族共生共荣。民族认同理论通过课理论内容的契合和教学实践的渗透实现与高校思想政治理论课的融入。     

新的社会阶层政治参与研究综述

新的社会阶层政治参与是统战理论研究的重点,其理论研究主要集中在政治参与的历史脉络、政治参与的方式与途径、政治参与动机与取向、政治参与与政治稳定的关系等方面。本文在文献回顾的基础上,对新的社会阶层政治参与研究做了相关的评述。既往的研究缺乏政治参与影响因素的详细分析,也缺乏政治参与意识的分析,更未将政治参与的责任意识划分研究。     

全球化、国家意识与政治安全

在全球化的时代背景下维系政治安全,必须在深刻反思全球化浪潮挑战的基础上,致力于强化公民的民族认同、国家意识,培育符合时代要求的爱国主义精神,使其自觉形成对中华民族传统文化特性和社会主义民主政治的强烈认同感,心系祖国、国家安全、国家利益至上的高度的责任感,实现中华民族伟大复兴的无畏的使命感,以及关心全球事务、构建和谐世界的博大的崇高感。为此我们要辨明全球普世话语,超越民族主义,民族教育和公民教育同步推进,打造宽领域、多层次的广泛的爱国主义教育体系。     

中国民主政团同盟从成立到改组的历史验证

中国民主政团同盟是抗战时期一些中间党派为团结抗日形成的政党联盟组织。它最初是政党首脑的松散联盟,后来发展为党派联盟,最后改组为中国民主同盟。国共两党对该组织采取的不同政策是促其最后解体的重要原因,但根本原因还在于它复杂的内部矛盾和斗争。该组织发展的历史轨迹显示了,民盟各派别虽不同程度上都有抗日和民主要求,但在国共两党的激烈斗争和影响下,必然因阶级属性的不同而走上不同的发展道路。     

Political stability,transition and conflict: Tajikistan compared with Georgia

Tajikistan and Georgia, in Central Asia and the South Caucasus respectively, are both small Soviet successor states with a recent history of political volatility and instability until the mid-2000s. Nevertheless, these independent countries have eventually developed diverging policies, notably with regard to their political alliances and world orientations. The Tajikistani Civil War resembles in many ways that of the Chechen conflict and also helps us understand the Syrian conflict. Similar to Georgia, Tajikistan had experienced the collapse of state institutions more intensely than other Soviet republics. Although contingent and actor-driven factors may have influenced the outcome, the influence of structural factors has been far greater than those agency-driven factors. This review article discusses, and tries to offer understanding and explanations for, political stability, transition and conflict in these two countries.