A political settlements lens onto Egypt’s critical junctures and cyclic violence (2011–2014)

Abstract

While there is a copious body of literature explaining Egypt’s political trajectory post-Mubarak through the lens of democratisation and transition theory, this paper argues that by using a political settlements lens, a less linear reading of the events can be offered, which highlights several attempts through both peaceful and violent means of arriving at negotiated agreements. The paper analyses the forging of three political settlements, one informal (2011) and two formal (2012, 2013) following the demise of the Mubarak regime in Egypt and the influence of intrinsic, instrumental and resultant violence on power configurations. It argues that the formal political settlement forged in Egypt in 2013 following the ousting of President Morsi cannot be read independently of the exclusionary outcomes of the informal political settlement forged in 2011 and the demise of the Fairmont Agreement of 2012. The paper relies on empirical data, including survey and focus groups undertaken in 2013–2014, complemented with secondary literature in Arabic and English.     

Direct Democracy and Political Trust: Enhancing Trust,Initiating Distrust–or Both?

This study investigates the relationship between direct democracy and political trust. We suggest a solution to the controversy in research centering on positive versus negative effects of direct democracy by analytically differentiating between the availability of direct democratic rights and the actual use of those rights. Theoretically, greater availability of direct democratic rights may enhance political trust by increasing citizens' perception that political authorities can be controlled as well as by incentivizing political authorities to act trustworthily. In contrast, the actual use of the corresponding direct democratic instruments may initiate distrust as it signals to citizens that political authorities do not act in the public's interest. We test both hypotheses for the very first time with sub‐national data of Switzerland. The empirical results seem to support our theoretical arguments.     

美国对台湾“政治安排”的政策及影响

美国对台湾“政治安排”的政策对“合情合理安排两岸政治关系”有重要影响。美国对台湾政治定位的政策是“认知到台湾是中国的一部分”,不支持“台独”或“两个中国”,但同时又“对台湾地位不持立场”。在两岸关系的解决方式方面,美国对台湾的前途持开放立场,但认为应透过对话和平解决,且要尊重两岸民众的意愿。美国这一政策增加了对统一前两岸政治关系做出“合情合理安排”的难度,但在某些方面与大陆对台政策也有一致性。目前,两岸应充分利用这些相契合的政策,推进两岸政治关系做出“合情合理”安排。     

两岸经济合作的政治效应问题探讨

推进两岸经济合作与一体化发展,形成日益紧密的经济共同体,可以巩固和深化两岸关系和平发展的经济基础,有助于推进两岸和平统一,但并非两岸和平统一的充分条件。而且,发挥两岸经济关系对两岸和平统一的促进作用需要相应的主客观条件,至少需要两岸双方的共同政治意愿与积极行动,以便在共同利益不断增进的基础上建构国家认同。民调显示,近年来的两岸经济合作,在“反独”中起到一定的积极作用,但因施行时间较短且尚未充分展开等因素而不足以证实或证伪其在“促统”方面的作用,并面临制约因素。而国家认同的形成,乃是两岸和平统一的关键。因此,必须确立正确的合作理念,坚持特定的推进原则,选择适宜的推进方式,以提升两岸经济合作的政治效应。     

台湾的大学生对《两岸服务贸易协议》的看法

2014年3月18日,台湾的学生以及社会团体因为反对两岸服贸协议,进而占领“立法院”,并发起一连串的示威与抗议活动。本研究运用定群追踪数据,以网络民调方式访问台湾地区大三的学生对两岸服贸协议的看法。初步发现：大学生对于服贸协议的态度,受到其政党倾向、统“独”立场以及“台湾人认同”的影响。不过,本研究运用政治情绪的测量也发现：台湾的大学生对于台湾的愤怒与对中国大陆的愤怒,让他们反对两岸服贸协议,但当他们对中国大陆抱持希望时,仍然支持两岸服贸协议。因此,中国大陆的崛起及繁荣与发展,既让台湾的大学生对于台湾的现况感到愤怒,确也对中国大陆充满憧憬。     

论工会在推进新生代农民工城市融入中的作用

与老一代农民工相比,新生代农民工城市融入愿望更为强烈。然而,受到城乡二元结构的限制与自身文化、技能的制约,新生代农民工城市融入水平较低。工会作为党联系职工群众的纽带和桥梁,作为职工利益的代表者和维护者,理应发挥组织优势,加快推进新生代农民工城市融入。     

关于制造业工会工作的调研与思考

朝阳区制造业工会2013年成立后,为夯实工作基础,全面了解基层企业工会组织工作现状,探索促进制造业工会工作健康发展的新路子,对行业所辖44家基层企业工会进行逐一实地走访,围绕企业状况、工会组织建设、民主管理、职工权益维护和技术创新、文体活动及职工需求等工会重点工作内容进行了专题调研,获得了大量一手信息与数据,发现了制造企业工会存在的普遍问题,并对破解问题进行了思考.     

印尼华人与2014 年印尼大选

1998年以来印尼华人积极参政,至今已成为印尼政治发展的一股重要力量。2014年印尼大选,华人选民受到印尼主要政党的高度重视,不仅纷纷派出华人候选人,个别政党还邀请华人搭档竞选总统副总统。华人积极参与国会选举,成绩显著,广大华人选民倾力支持的佐科维成功当选总统,凸显了华人选票的影响力。在印尼不断推进政治民主和族群和谐的大环境中,印尼华人参政的良好势头,将持续发展。     

A history of sex and the state in Southeast Asia: class,intimacy and invisibility

This essay offers a history of international marriages that questions the definition of marriage and what it meant to belong, as a legal subject or citizen, to a colonial state in Southeast Asia. European imperial states deployed monogamous marriage alongside other weapons of empire as a justification for intervention into Southeast Asian societies. With monogamous marriage came also European notions of belonging that traced surnames and legal subject status (later citizenship) via husbands and fathers. The ramifications for individuals in international marriages between Asian women and European men are well known. However, the vast majority of ‘international marriages’ were not those between colonial Europeans and Southeast Asian women, but between Southeast Asian women and lower class Asian men from India and China. Colonial states ignored or failed to register these lower class intra-Asian intimacies because their unions did not threaten colonial rule so long as they ensured a continuous pool of labor and promoted the colonial economy. Unlike recent theories which argue for an omniscient state that penetrates into the personal lives of its populations, this essay maintains that states intensely regulated marriage and belonging for some subjects but not for others. This longstanding unevenness in the management of intimate unions provides a historical context for understanding shifts in the marital regimes of contemporary postcolonial states. Taking a long-term view, the essay asks if recent increases in international marriages might be better understood as spikes rather than as absolute increases resulting from ‘globalization’. A historical framework ties the rise and fall of international marriage to early modern trade patterns, imperialism's labor requirements, war, and the recent demand for labor that has arisen from low birth rates and economic changes. Each of these ‘events’ entailed a large-scale movement of populations which resulted in the development of intimate unions.     

社会中的马来西亚国家:意象与实践

本文旨在以第13届国会选举之后马来西亚政治、经济、社会诸领域的状况为主要依据,对作为意象的马来西亚国家和作为实践的马来西亚国家进行考察,进而展开以下两方面的论证:(1)马来西亚国家各组成部分的实践过程如何形塑着马来西亚国家的主导原则与主导功能;(2)马来西亚国家建构与政治制度化的不足及其出路。