农村劳动力转移对农村老龄化的影响及其对策建议

中国农民是最大的弱势群体,而农村人口老龄化问题成为束缚全面建设小康社会和农村可持续发展的“瓶颈”。通过定量分析,指出农村劳动力异地转移客观上加剧了农村人口的老龄化程度,削弱了传统的养老方式。如何有效解决这一问题,已成为重大研究课题。提出要实现农民“生有所靠、病有所医、老有所养”,必须及早谋划,城乡统筹,因地制宜,结合各地实际情况,建立多层次的保障模式;最后提出必须在农村加速建设社会保障制度的9项对策建议。     

上海外来流动人口犯罪现状的社会学分析与控制对策

随着上海外来流动人口数量的逐年增长,外来流动人口的犯罪形势亦日趋严峻。根据社会学的方法论原则,系统分析上海外来流动人口犯罪的基本特征、主客观原因、发展趋势以及流动人口管理中存在的问题,是科学制定控制对策的前提和基础。     

超越"经济人":对"人口、资源与环境经济学"学科性质的探索

“人口、资源与环境经济学”是一门新兴的经济学学科,有着广阔的理论拓展空间和实践应用领域。“人口资源环境”具有稀缺资源属性,必须对其合理配置,但是“经济人”命题在解释“人口资源环境”行为时,存在个人理性与社会理性的非均衡性,因此在理论和方法论上必须超越“经济人”命题,在宏大的理论范畴内,进行“人口资源环境”行为的经济学研究。     

The Sex Crime: Deterioration more Apparent than Real?

Public concern about an escalation of sex crime is unsupported by a critical analysis of official crime statistics in England and Wales. Assumptions about the inveterate recidivism of sex offenders are unconfirmed by follow-up studies. A great variety of behaviours is covered by sex crime, from the grave to the trivial. To the traditional offences of predatory aggressors, violent rapists and a small number of dangerous offenders driven by pathological emotions, are now added date rapes and harassments previously little reported. All sex incidents involving children are widely believed to cause lasting damage, despite evidence to the contrary. Female offenders and boy victims are receiving more attention. Adolescent involvement is insufficiently distinguished from paedophile offences and male homosexuals are suspected of paedophile tendencies. The development of constructive therapeutic approaches is impeded by doubts about efficacy and a punitive ethos.     

356例强奸案资料的回顾性研究

本文收集法医物证检验确证强奸案３５６例。统计分析表明，强奸的动机不仅在于用武力强迫的方式达到性乐满足，而且在于用诱骗的方式达到某种权利或优越感的满足；其诱因既来自罪犯，也来自受害人的文化道德素质，性知识和法制观念，以及环境因素等；罪犯与受害人ＡＢＯ血型表型及基因型与相应普通人群比较无统计学差异。     

浅议人口信息管理系统的建设

在信息主导警务的当今社会，人口信息的管理和应用对公安工作和社会管理起着举足轻重的作用。随着人口的增多和社会形势的变化，传统的信息管理方式已无法满足社会的需要。人口信息管理系统的建设是完善和加强户政管理工作的需求，是公安工作现代化的需求，更是信息社会发展的需求。目前人口信息管理系统虽已初步建成，但还存在许多问题，需要进一步完善。     

Measuring the frequency occurrence of handwritten numeral characteristics—An expanded list

In the third of a series of studies and reports, the authors expand on the frequency occurrence proportions of various handwritten features. The first study culminated in the publication of “Measuring the Frequency Occurrence of Handwriting and Handprinting Characteristics.” That study was followed by “Measuring the Frequency Occurrence of Handwritten Numeral Characteristics.” The premise of this current and future follow‐up studies is to expand on the initial lists of information incrementally by expanding the number of features and the number of writers. This study expands on the list of numeral features. A total of 34 numeral features was selected by the authors as candidates for this study and tested through an attribute agreement analysis. Based on the results of the testing, 17 new features have been added to the list of proportions. The original 1410 handwritten numeral specimen forms were utilized and pared to 1024 to obtain a proper population sampling for the United States. Interdependency testing was conducted on 783 pairs of inter‐character numerals. A coefficient of correlation between ?0.2 and +0.2 was found in 534 (68.20%) of these pairs. As of this report, there are now a total of 42 numerals with measured frequencies of occurrence. This material has already borne fruit as the combined frequency of occurrence studies were explained during an unsuccessful exclusion hearing in court with an explanation as to how these studies support the reliability of forensic document examination.     

Criminal Justice Statistics—An Evolution

The origins of the Bureau of Justice Statistics and criminal justice statistics in general go back 150 years, but the U.S. President's Commission on Law Enforcement and Administration of Justice in 1967, along with subsequent panels and commissions, added urgency and specificity to the work to be done to improve our understanding of the operation of the criminal justice system and of crime. Criminal justice statistics have the potential to be used to shape and evaluate specific policies and programs when the statistics are timely, accurate, and relevant to the decisions being made for policy formulation or evaluation. The full development of effective criminal justice statistics on crime and the administration of the justice system can provide for informed decision making and more insightful resource allocation. In this article, I summarize the historical progressions and evolution of criminal justice statistics in light of the changes affecting the justice environment and propose future work.     

Detection Rates, An International Comparison

Within Europe detection rates vary considerably. The differences are too large to be explained purely by the ability of the police to solve cases. In a study covering nine European countries many other factors (external, organisational and technical factors) influencing the detection rate are identified and the influence is empirically made plausible. Next, a comparison is made between the punishment rate and the detection rate. The fact that punishment rates are more stable is explained by the difference between a crime oriented and an offender oriented approach. Also a link is made with the discretionary powers of the police and prosecution.