论刑事犯罪统计黑数存在的必然性、可认识性、可控制性和功能性

犯罪黑数的存在是必然的,是有规律可循、可以为人们所认识的,同时也可以通过一定的措施加以控制;犯罪黑数的存在不论在立法上,还是检测政府制定的对策上,以及促进司法制度和侦查工作的改革上都有非常积极的帮助。     

Juvenile Delinquency in Switzerland Over 50 Years: Assessing Trends beyond Statistics

The general public seems to be convinced that juvenile delinquency has massively increased over the last decades. However, this assumption is much less popular among academics and some media where doubts about the reality of this trend are often expressed. In the present paper, trends are followed using conviction statistics over 50 years, police and victimization data since the 1980s, and self-report data collected since 1992. All sources consistently point to a massive increase of offending among juveniles, particularly for violent offences during the 1990s. Given that trends were similar in most European countries, explanations should be sought at the European rather than the national level. The available evidence points to possible effects of increased opportunities for property offences since 1950, and although causality remains hard to prove, effects of increased exposure to extreme media violence since 1985Swiss conviction statistics are based on registration in the national register of convictions. After 1971, minors were registered only in exceptional cases (Balvig 1988, p. 30)     

Quantifying Uncertainty in Estimations of the Total Weight of Drugs in Groups of Complex Matrices

In case practice at forensic drug departments, multiple items from one seizure are sometimes sent in with the question: what is the total amount of drugs in the seizure? This may be complicated especially if impregnated material is involved such as clothes or rubber. Measurement uncertainty is typically stable on drug percentages, not weights, and subsampling may take place. It is recognized more and more that determination and reporting of uncertainty on estimators are an essential part of obtaining scientifically sound results in the forensic field. Methodology is described to quantify uncertainty on estimations of the total drug weight in groups of complex matrices, given simple statistical models, along a subdivision of five types of cases. Given each of these types, case examples are given where uncertainty is quantified in estimations of drug weights, by means of confidence intervals. The described models are statistically sound and relatively easy to implement.     

Why are occupational safety crimes increasing?

The objective of this article is to analyse the structure of, and trends in, reported occupational safety crimes. The central focus is directed at analysing how we might understand the substantial increase in the number of reported offences witnessed during the first decade of the 21st century. In order to analyse trends in occupational safety crimes we proceed from both official crime statistics and data that have been compiled specifically for the purposes of this study, including a nationally representative sample of offence reports relating to the occupational safety crimes reported to the police. The results show that the increase in reported offenses is primarily due to a shift in definitions and in the reactions of the authorities rather than to a powerful increase in the number of actual crimes committed. This leads to the conclusion that registered occupational safety offences should first and foremost be viewed as a measure of the work of the authorities, rather than as an indicator of real crime trends.     

Big Data for Policy Analysis: The Good,The Bad,and The Ugly

Big data holds tremendous potential for public policy analysis. At the same time, its use prompts a number of issues related to statistical bias, privacy, equity, and governance, among others. Accordingly, there is a need to formulate, evaluate, and implement policies that not only mitigate the risks, but also maximize the benefits of using big data for policy analysis. This poses a number of challenges, which are highlighted in this essay.     

台湾地区科技统计体系及特征分析

科技统计数据是认识一个地区科技发展特征的重要载体.20世纪80年代初期,台湾地区建立了科技统计工作制度.如今,台湾的科技统计工作既符合OECD制定的统计规范,又具有自身特点,为公众了解台湾科技发展和当局制定科技政策提供了翔实的数据.本文在分析科技统计基本职能和世界科技统计发展态势基础上,对台湾的科技统计工作体系和工作流程进行了详细介绍,总结了台湾科技统计的四个典型特征,提出了对大陆科技统计工作的若干启示,并对开展两岸科技统计合作进行了展望.     

关于旅游统计的几点思考

旅游统计对各级政府的作用,主要是描述旅游发展态势、旅游业与其它产业发展的关系、旅游发展对旅游公共服务的需求程度等。旅游统计需要先解决两个问题:其一是旅游统计的口径问题,其二是旅游统计数据的取得问题。笔者建议国家旅游局和国家统计局将年末就业人口数指标列入旅游统计体系,并使之成为核心指标。     

数字化背景下老年友好社区构建策略——基于杭州市K街道N社区的调查

近年来,我国数字城市、5G运用、未来社区建设的推进,改变了老年人的社区养老环境,老年友好社区作为我国社区研究中的一个重要组成部分,亟待对其在数字城市背景下的构建内容、实践与评估、发展趋势开展深入探究。本研究通过对杭州市K街道N社区数字化背景下的老年友好社区构建的满意度调查,分析了数字化背景下的老年友好社区构建与老年人日常生活的关系、与原居养老的关系、与代际互动的关系以及融入的意愿度,认为这是老年友好社区的构建内容从单一的物质环境向多维度转变、构建主体由政府单一型向老年人参与及多主体合作型转变,探索形成良好代际互动的全龄社区的内在机制。     

Genetic polymorphism of 30 autosomal InDel loci in Chinese Hainan Li population

A novel genetic marker, Insertion/Deletion polymorphism (InDel) shows remarkable potential for forensic DNA applications. Hainan Island is the southernmost and the second largest island in China, of which the Li ethnic group is regarded as the original inhabitants. In this study, 207 individual samples of Li ethnic group from Hainan were genotyped using Investigator DIPplex kit which contains 30 autosomal InDels and Amelogenin. Allele frequency and forensic parameters were calculated for these loci. Several deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) and linkage disequilibrium (LD) may indicate founder effect in the Li ethnic group. The combined power of discrimination (CPD) and the cumulative probability of exclusion (CPE) reached 0.99999999992912 and 0.9861, respectively. These results suggested that the kit was effective for personal identification in Hainan Li population. The population comparisons through the Nei’s standard genetic distance (R_st), phylogenetic tree, multidimensional scaling analysis (MDS), principal component analysis (PCA), and STRUCTURE analyses along continental divisions manifested that the 30 InDels panel had a certain intercontinental differentiation ability.     

Using the likelihood ratio in bloodstain pattern analysis

There is an apparent paradox that the likelihood ratio (LR) approach is an appropriate measure of the weight of evidence when forensic findings have to be evaluated in court, while it is typically not used by bloodstain pattern analysis (BPA) experts. This commentary evaluates how the scope and methods of BPA relate to several types of evaluative propositions and methods to which LRs are applicable. As a result of this evaluation, we show how specificities in scope (BPA being about activities rather than source identification), gaps in the underlying science base, and the reliance on a wide range of methods render the use of LRs in BPA more complex than in some other forensic disciplines. Three directions are identified for BPA research and training, which would facilitate and widen the use of LRs: research in the underlying physics; the development of a culture of data sharing; and the development of training material on the required statistical background. An example of how recent fluid dynamics research in BPA can lead to the use of LR is provided. We conclude that an LR framework is fully applicable to BPA, provided methodic efforts and significant developments occur along the three outlined directions.