城市少数民族流动人口权利贫困问题论析

权利贫困问题是少数民族流动人口在城市中面临的重要问题之一。在对少数民族流动人口权利贫困界定的基础上,分析了少数民族流动人口的经济权利贫困、社会权利贫困、文化权利贫困、政治权利贫困问题,认为探讨少数民族流动人口的权利贫困问题不能纳入到政治框架中去理解,而是一种伴随少数民族人口流动出现的社会经济现象。少数民族流动人口的权利贫困与经济贫困关系密切,权利贫困问题的产生与制度性社会排斥以及自身能力不足有关。     

发展型福利模式下的中国养老制度安排

养老问题是人口老龄化研究的核心命题。随着人口老龄化成为中国社会的常态,中国的养老制度安排不应是应急策略,还必须考虑到老龄社会的可持续发展。本文以发展型福利的视角重新审视中国养老制度,试图为实现养老政策的发展型转变构建一个初步的分析框架。发展型福利模式强调经济与社会发展的内在整合,重视社会福利的生产主义特色,并致力于推进福利主体的能力发展。基于此,本文认为构建中国的发展型养老政策应首先重塑养老制度安排的价值立场,协调短期目标与中长期战略的关系,并由此在行政管理体制创新的基础上推进老年福利的适度普惠性、在机会平等的基础上促进老年人口参与发展过程、增进对未来劳动人口的人力资本投资、以及关注家庭能力发展在养老可持续性中的作用。这些分析对于政府审视现有养老制度安排,并合理选择养老政策改革的切入点提供了理论和实践依据。     

Excel统计分析工具在痕迹检验中的应用

痕迹检验是用来揭露和证实犯罪，痕迹检验的结果为侦查、起诉审判提供着不可或缺的线索和证据。痕迹检验中会遇到大量的数据处理，数理统计学提供了有力的科学支持和有效地分析方法，而Excel则为此提供了方便快捷的统计分析工具，让我们在痕迹检验过程中，能都科学的、有效地、快捷的进行数据分析，为侦查破案提供依据。     

浅析老龄群体在城市社区共同体重建中的作用

在当今城市社区变迁的背昔下，社区老龄化及社区共同体削弱已日益成为突出问题。但结合社区发展、社区共同体建设和老龄群体社匹生活的实际特点来看，社区老龄群体的成功老化与社区共同体的重建却有着共同的实现途径，即发挥老龄群体在城市社区共同体重建的中的作用。基于对老龄群体自身特征、社区工作、活动参与状况及对社区交往的推动等多角度的考察，更揭示了老龄群体在城市社区共同体重建中的积极作用。     

The Quantitative Analysis of Terrorism and Immigration: An Initial Exploration

This article uses immigration and other biographical data to refute much of the conventional wisdom about the relationship between terrorism and immigration. Using a database created from the biographical data of 373 terrorists, we have established a number of significant findings. Over forty percent of our database is made up of Western Nationals. Second, despite widespread alarms raised over terrorist infiltration from Mexico, we found no terrorist presence in Mexico and no terrorists who entered the U.S. from Mexico. Third, we found a sizeable terrorist presence in Canada and a number of Canadian-based terrorists who have entered the U.S. In addition to illuminating the terrorist networks entrenched in the West, this paper is also an attempt to advance the field of terrorism studies by taking a quantitative approach to data analysis.     

How to Develop More Effective Policies Against Crime: Some Reflections on Drugs and Crime Research in an International Context

This paper offers some reflections on how to develop more effective policies against crime, drawing on more than 10 years of research experience on the international drug problem. The paper begins by trying to illustrate the so-called justice gap in the world, and explain why an institution such as the United Nations has a comparative advantage in closing that gap. It then details four lessons that the author has learnt from his own personal experience as head of research in the United Nations International Drug Control Programme, now called the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime: (i) measure, count, and keep counting; (ii) publish or perish, either in inter-governmental default, or in public hysteria; (iii) limit the dangers of committing the euphemistic fallacy; and (iv) divorce research and policy, because research is policy-dependent; make research policy-relevant, and re-marry it to policy. Finally, the paper tries to show how these lessons can be applied in related areas and used as good practice in research on crime.     

积极稳妥地推进农村社会保障体系的建立和健全

农村社会保障是国家社会保障的重要组成部分。没有农村社会保障制度的建立和完善,就没有全国的社会保障制度。加快建立农村社会保障体系,不仅是改革和完善我国社会保障体系的重大举措,也是我国农村经济发展和社会进步的必然要求,是全面建设小康社会的重要保证。     

浅议统计信息质量提高

目前我国统计信息质量还远远达不到社会对其要求,亟待提高。为此,要大力推进依法统计,加强统计制度方法的改革,使统计工作能更好地服务于社会经济活动。     

NIBRS Data Available for Secondary Analysis

The NIBRS data program currently being implemented by the FBI and local lawenforcement agencies has by now produced sufficient data for archiving anddistribution. Although not representative of crime in the United States, existing NIBRS data can be used to investigate the nature of crimesknown to the police compared to the traditional UCR data. The Bureau ofJustice Statistics has requested the National Archive of Criminal JusticeData to store and make NIBRS data available to interested users. The datafrom 1996 will shortly be available from the NACJD web site. The 1996 datacontain almost 6.5 million records and the FBI's full file includes about 361 Mbytes of data. The data have been disaggregated from the FBI's complex single file into 11 segment levels or record types. This makes theindividual record types easier and faster to analyze than using the fullfile, which more closely resembles a relational database than a hierarchicalfile. However, splitting apart the record types requires that specialprocedures be used to merge files of different record types, which would benecessary if a user were interested in analyzing variables appearing in morethan one record type (e.g., comparing offender and victim ages). These procedures are described, and a test comparing the time to run a simple frequencycount using the full file against the merged files shows that using themerged files is considerably more efficient. Also discussed are some futuredevelopments to facilitate the analysis of NIBRS data.