当前中欧关系评析

近年来,基于地缘和历史的相互信任、经济结构的互补性以及共享的多边主义理念,中国和欧盟在发展全面战略伙伴关系的道路上稳步前行。随着近期欧盟主要国家领导人的更迭,以及欧盟自身一体化道路的一波三折,中欧关系也出现了一些新的变化,这些变化反映出欧盟对整体国际形势的判断,以及对华立场和观念的调整。因此,如何正确评估当前中欧关系变化的现状和影响,是我国制定对欧政策、发展中欧长期伙伴关系的基本出发点。     

印度尼西亚与南海海上安全机制建设

南海及其邻接周边是海上安全机制云集之地。对印度尼西亚而言,后冷战时期南海争端的凸显时值其谋求并巩固区域大国地位的关键时期。此间印尼逐渐在东南亚安全区域主义中发挥核心作用,即通过安全机制建设通联区域安全秩序内外建构,调处南海争端并建构相应安全机制成为印尼塑造区域安全能力的重要途径。文章通过对印尼独立主持的“处理南中国海潜在冲突研讨会”的案例分析,指出该安全机制对南海争端具有针对性;其形成与运作综合了印尼的国家与区域安全观,是印尼实践安全战略与政策、协调区域主义与大国角色的工具,对南海海上安全机制以及印尼建构区域安全机制起到了协同补充作用。     

论社会管理创新中我国警察权的使命

从权力运作逻辑看,公安社会管理创新主要是一种警察权力运作方式的创新。而任何权力都是在特定时空的社会组织体系中运行并实现功能目的及其价值目标的。从近代西方社会管理的经验和警察权理念流变看,民主政治发展、市场经济建设和公民社会培育三者对国家治理理念形成及其实践方式选择（包括警察权配置及运行）产生了决定性影响,历史经验和事实逻辑要求我们把合作治理与公民增权作为我国社会管理创新中警察权的使命。     

Illiberal Democrats versus Undemocratic Liberals: The Struggle Over the Future of Thailand's Fragile Democracy

Abstract

This article examines the inter-related factors that underpin the fragility of Thailand's democracy. Uneven economic development, the high levels of income inequality, and unequal access to power and resources are significant drivers of Thailand's ongoing political conflict. Social divides across classes and regions, and populist exploitation of the rural poor's sense of alienation from the traditional ruling elites, provide a volatile backdrop to national politics. In addition, Thailand's unstable political history and the weakness of liberal institutions present risks to its democracy. The army, the revered monarch and the judiciary comprise elites whose periodic interventions in politics and reservations about electoral democracy further render the Thai polity fragile. Thailand's political situation represents a ‘slow-burning’ crisis of democracy: a long-term historical confrontation developing slowly, with the fundamental issues unresolved. It is undergoing a period of social turmoil fuelled by a power struggle between competing material interests and by an ideational contest to determine the country's constitutive political rules. This can be conceptualised as a struggle for control of Thailand's future between a heterogeneous populist-capitalist movement of illiberal democracy and conservative forces of undemocratic liberalism.     

The Russian mafia: Expulsion of law

The purpose of this paper will be to determine whether the conditions that exist in present‐day Russia are congruent with Foucault's claim that power in modern societies is not ensured by law and punishment but by normalization and control, which go beyond the state and its apparatuses, and that law plays an increasingly subordinate role within contemporary disciplinary society. I will also see what conclusions can be drawn from the Russian‐Soviet case that are relevant to evaluating the paradigms supplied by Foucault in deciphering the modalities of power in the modern world. In what sense can he help us understand how discipline and law in Imperial and Soviet Russia created the necessary conditions for the emergence of the Russian Mafia? Law has been transformed in the hands of the Russian Mafia and has expanded its spheres of influence rather than being displaced. The conditions that exist in present‐day Russia can be applied to Foucault's claim that power in modern societies is not ensured by law and punishment but by normalization and control which go beyond the state and its apparatuses. But it is not the case that law plays an increasingly subordinate role in present‐day Russia. Rather, it is no longer controlled by the sovereign power of the monarchy or by the Soviet state and its apparatuses, but is now predominately controlled by the Russian Mafia.     

The Sino–Japanese territorial dispute and threat perception in power transition

A territorial dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands has gained a high profile in Sino–Japanese relations. Since the 2012 escalation of the territorial dispute, there is no sign of any de-escalation despite economic interdependence, which previously helped ease the tension. Drawing on the constructivist understanding of threat perception and power transition theory, this article analyzes the way in which the deepening of threat perceptions associated with a perceived regional power transition prevents Japan and China from working beyond their subjective conceptions of justice associated with boarders and history. Since 2012, the Sino–Japanese territorial dispute has increasingly fitted into a larger picture of power-political conflict taking place in a power transition in which both Japan and China aim to return to ‘normality’ by propagating their territorial claims, strengthening their military capabilities, and strategic realignment. To that end, this article first introduces a theoretical framework on the centrality of threat perceptions in power transition. Second, it traces the ways in which Japan and China have developed a threat perception of each other since 1972. The third section deals with the escalation of the Sino–Japanese territorial dispute since 2010 and highlights the deepening of mutual suspicion and threat perception exemplified at the bilateral and multilateral levels. I conclude that the Sino–Japanese territorial debate entered a new stage of normative and power-political competition in earning international support for territorial claims in the East China Sea.     

地区次大国缘何接受地区大国的领导

在地区权力结构不平衡的背景下,地区大国争取地区领导权的研究往往认为体系内的中小国家在功能上具有同质性,从而忽略了地区次大国的特殊性。事实上,地区次大国与地区小国的行为逻辑出发点不同,且对是否接受地区大国领导的态度表现存在差异。从地区等级的视角出发,可对全球各地区等级体系进行划分,并将主导地区等级体系变迁的内生动力归为地区权威的演化。基于此,本文依托地区权威二重性建立了以地区权威类型为核心解释变量的分析框架,呈现出地区次大国应对地区领导的因果机制。研究表明:地区次大国的态度取向与行为选择受到地区权威支配性(双边实力位差)与正当性(大国威胁程度、地区制度化水平和战略文化趋同性)的影响。在关系型权威下,地区次大国倾向于选择追随或承认战略;而在象征型权威下,地区次大国对地区大国易于表现为抵触或制衡行为。文章结合类型化与统计分析等方法对符合当今地区等级体系的总体经验事实进行跨地区全样本案例分析,结果验证了研究假设。充分把握地区等级体系中的次大国与大国互动规律对于地区大国领导力的平稳提升和地区战略稳定具有重要意义。     

东南亚华侨华人对中国软实力建构的作用——以“亲诚惠容”理念为视角

本文以东南亚华侨华人在中国的东南亚软实力构建过程中的角色为研究对象,以中国政府提出"亲诚惠容"周边外交理念和方针为研究背景,在介绍东南亚华侨华人基本概况的基础上,重点分析东南亚华侨华人在中国软实力构建中的作用,并就"亲诚惠容"理念对中国东南亚软实力建设及东南亚华侨华人在其中的独特作用展开探讨。     

中等强国的变迁与全球治理体系的演进

在全球治理体系的更替演进中,大国始终占据着绝对优势地位,是处于国际矛盾和重大事件中心的主要角色,也是决定全球治理机制创建进度和主导过程控制的核心要素。从21世纪第2个十年开始,中等强国在推动全球治理体系的创设过程中开始发挥着重要作用,并借助二十国集团机制实现从治理参与者向治理推动者的进阶升迁,不仅标志着中等强国与全球治理体系变革已经初步形成良性的互动关系,还意味着全球治理的制度设计和运作模式步入新的时代。因此,世界政治将逐步朝着代表更多数国家和人民的政治方向转变,国际体系也将逐步转化为全方位发展更具整体性的全球形态。     

四川藏区警察执行力论析

警察执行力是警察实现既定目标的能力和效力。通过问卷调查发现：四川藏区警察执行力总体状况较好;个体差异明显,警察执行力优秀人数较少而警察执行力偏低人数较多;从警年限短的警察执行力较强,从警年限较长的警察执行力较低;党员警察执行力高于非党员;藏族警察执行力略强于汉族警察;领导干部警察与普通警察在警察执行力上无明显差异。提升四川藏区警察执行力的主要措施,一要增强职业认同,提高警察执行意愿;二要提高警察的执行能力;三要充分发挥领导干部的模范带头作用;四要增强警察职业发展动力,减少警察职业倦怠的发生。