基于马尔可夫转移概率的外来常住人口居住需求预测

住房供需矛盾的根本问题在于住房需求规模和需求结构如何。本文分析了外来常住人口的居住现状与居留意愿二者联动下对外来常住人口居住需求的影响,并利用灰色模型和马尔可夫(Morkov)转移概率的组合法对大城市外来常住人口的居住需求规模进行预测。通过Logistic模型分析发现,大城市外来常住人口的居住现状质量与居住需求成反比,居留意愿与居住需求成正比,通过灰色模型和Morkov转移概率矩阵方法预测得出一线城市外来常住人口的居住需求呈现上升趋势,2017年到2022年期间,总居住需求从1241万上升到1352万平方米,其中其他住房、政府提供住房和自购住房的居住需求逐年上升,租住私房的居住需求逐年下降。租住私房的居住需求最大,占比60%左右。外来务工人员的总居住需求下降,青年人员和引进人才的总居住需求上升,对比2017年四大城市外来常住人口的住宅供给与居住需求,得出目前四大城市的居住供给已超过居住需求。     

Prison Decayed: Cinematic Penal Discourse and Populism 1995–2005

The increased populist and punitive turn in criminal justice policy in the United Kingdom over recent years has led to punishment becoming politicised, harsher and more ostentatious. The role of media and popular culture discourses of prison is rarely examined in this account. Adopting a Foucauldian discourse analysis of prison films released over the past 10 years, this article explores the prison film as one important element of the discursive regime. It seeks to investigate what representational practices are at work, how they limit the meaning of prison and prisoners, and how this may contribute to debates about the nature and aim of prison in contemporary society. It argues that several discursive practices exist in cinematic representations of the incarceration that strengthen support for the use of prison. The explicit and recurring depiction of violence in most prison films over the past 10 years, while appearing to offer evidence for prison reform, does the opposite. This paper suggests that discourses around the futility and inhumanity of incarceration are scant, replaced by scenes of prison violence; rape and death appear, which appear to exist purely for the pleasure of the spectator: a generic feature of the prison film. Secondly, prisoners are largely constructed as an inhuman other: a danger to society and deserving of harsh punishment. Consequently, the discursive regime of prison in cinema over the past decade constructs prison as not only necessary, but as the only process for crime control and reduction.     

The birth of population statistics in Sweden

In 1749, Sweden established a system for population statistics (Tabellverket) that annually presented data for important demographic events in the 2500 parishes of the country. Taxation records and church book registration were important antecedents, as were the temporal events of wars, famines, and raging epidemics. During a period of recovery, Sweden went through political changes. Influenced by international political arithmetic and mercantilism, the establishment of Tabellverket was part of a plan to increase and rationalize the population. The existence of a medical organization and a central administrative system helped, but even more important were the networks that included most of the influential people. Thus, clergy who were responsible for the compilation of data played a key role. By using the existing church organization, the project turned out to be realizable.     

Procreation,family and ‘progress’: Administrative and economic aspects of Ottoman population policies in the 19th century

The making of the modern Ottoman state in the 19th century was closely interrelated with population issues and policies. ‘Population’ became an important component of Ottoman history throughout the 19th and early 20th centuries. As the state identified the ‘population’ as a source of income after the Tanzimat, it tried to protect and procreate it through certain institutional arrangements and regulations. These policies consisted of protecting the existing population, controlling population movements, promoting procreation, and giving subsidies and lending money at interest to peasant families. The procreation policies included enforcement of marriages and encouragement of reproduction within marriages while they discouraged traditional birth control methods and practices. As in any other context, Ottoman families resisted the policies of procreation and pressures coming from the central government. This paper will examine the state's policies toward families and individuals as well as the responses of the people to these policies. I will attempt to construct a model based on the protection and the procreation policies of the modern Ottoman state, which will be an important springboard toward building a basis for conducting comparative analysis with other European states. By doing this, I will try to challenge some of the established assumptions on the nature of the ‘modern state’ in the 19th century.     

Prison Populations as Political Constructs: the Case of Finland,Holland and Sweden

Countries such as Finland, Holland and Sweden have witnessed similar economic and social developments and have been affected by similar crime trends. However, over the past 50 years, the daily prison populations in these three Northern European countries have developed very differently. An attempt is made here to discuss these diverse developments in the light of a perspective that treats daily prison populations as political constructs.1 ¹I am grateful to my translator, David Shannon, and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments.      

Social Constructionism and Criminology: Traditions,Problems and Possibilities

Over the last twenty years, the prison system, border controls, crime prevention programmes, anti‐terror measures and private security companies have expanded within Europe. This article discusses some of the implications. It will be argued that we are witnessing a paradigmatic shift in the manner in which state‐sanctioned force is employed. The distinction between what is criminal, to be dealt with by the justice system, and what creates a ‘perception of security’—formerly to be dealt with by social policy—is being eroded at both macro‐ (‘war on terror’) and micro‐ (‘public order’) levels. The rule of law is giving way to a security mentality, where force is employed on the basis of risk assessments. Social problems are re‐interpreted as security threats, and met with measures recreating the original threats. This gives the policy field a distinctive rationality of its own.     

Mental Health Problems among Prison Inmates: the Effect of Welfare Deficiencies,Drug Use and Self‐Efficacy

In this paper, we investigate the differential contribution of accumulated welfare deficiencies, drug use, and self‐efficacy on inmates' current symptoms of mental health problems. Few studies so far have investigated inmates' mental health based on empirical data covering both social and psychological predictors. Our analyses are aimed at the following research questions: (a) what is the relationship between welfare deficiencies, drug use, and symptom reporting among prison inmates? (b) is this relationship influenced by inmates' perceived self‐efficacy? and (c) how might this information be used to inform the discussion of challenges in prisoner re‐entry? Findings are based on a national survey among prison inmates in Norway, focusing on living conditions generally, as well as mental distress, drug use, and self‐efficacy. The findings indicate serious accumulation of disadvantage, and more welfare deficiencies among drug users and those suffering from mental distress. When it comes to prediction of mental distress, accumulation of welfare deficiencies and self‐efficacy both turned out as significant contributors. The findings are discussed both in terms of practical implications, and in terms of how they illustrate some of the shortcomings inherent in a traditional welfare research perspective.     

社区警务中的人口管理研究

社区警务中的人口管理,包括社区常住人口的走访调查式管理、社区流动人口的规范化管理、社区重点人口和帮教监改对象的特殊控制管理。