2010～2011年中国—东盟货物贸易数量分析与预测——年度分析系列报告之八

2010年中国与东盟的贸易摆脱了金融危机的困扰,再次回到高增长的轨道,增速居于中国各大贸易伙伴前列且年内较为平稳;中方从东盟的进口额与速度均高过对东盟的出口额与增速,逆差扩大;除中菲贸易外,中国与其他东盟国家的贸易额都达到历史最高值。双方贸易的增长面宽、增长点多,体现出中国—东盟自由贸易区的良好开局。数据检验分析显示,中国、美国、日本、韩国与东盟的贸易具有协整关系,相互促进,中国—东盟自由贸易区亦惠及亚太区域贸易。结合定性分析与数学模型,预测2011年的中国—东盟经贸合作将保持较高的增长势头。     

Walking the line: Electoral cycles and the shift in legislative priorities among German parliamentarians

This article sheds light on how MPs' priorities change in the course of legislative terms. We purport that members of parliament (MPs) balance a variety of incentives over the electoral cycle. While they emphasize issues that relate to the policy-making agenda of their party right after an election, competition with other parties increasingly gains influence over legislators’ priorities as the next election day approaches. We show supportive evidence for these patterns based on a unique longitudinal dataset combining information on sponsorship of legislative proposals, public opinion, party manifestos, and committee chair positions in Germany between 1990 and 2013. By bringing variation within the electoral cycle to our attention, the results enhance our understanding of the factors that set the incentive structure for MPs and the relationship between party competition and legislative behavior.     

我国食品安全监管问题研究

食品安全问题成为我国政府十分关注的重大问题。我国食品安全监管现状和监管中存在很多问题。借鉴国外先进监管经验,加强我国的食品安全监管,必须做到：改革现有的监管体制,建立完善的食品安全监管体系;改革现有的市场准入制度、实施食品卫生监督量化分级管理制度、推行良好生产规范（GMP）管理和危险分析关键控制点技术（HACCP）管理体系;完善食品安全法律法规、安全标准、检验检测体系;建立从农田到餐桌全过程监督制度,确保人们吃到安全放心食品。     

对提高文件检验课程教学有效性的思考

文件检验是公安工作的一项重要技术手段,在侦查破案中起着重要的作用。由于种种原　　因,存在部分警员认为文件检验在实际工作中作用不大的误区。为了纠正这种错误认识,提高文件检验　　课程在警校教学中的有效性,我们就此问题,从分析产生误区的原因,提出了解决问题的对策,以助于警　　校学员端正学习态度,增强文件检验意识,更好地为侦查破案工作服务。     

Income inequality and level of corruption in post-communist European countries between 1995 and 2014

This paper analyses the relationships between income inequality and corruption in Europe and looks specifically at post-communist European countries. The scientific community agrees that there is important relationship between income inequality and corruption and many authors believe that low income inequality is connected to low corruption. According to empirical papers, this is true not only on the European scale, but also on a global scale. In this paper, I test this claim by conducting a multilevel analysis on 39 European countries in the period of 1995–2014. This model ascertains that there are immense differences between post-communist countries and the rest of European countries. The effects of income inequality on the level of corruption are discussed.     

The politics of quantitative easing and housing stimulus by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, 2008‒2018

Abstract

Central banks have been important yet underexplored actors in the fight against the Great Recession. In addition to ultra-low interest rates, they adopted large-scale bond-buying programmes known as quantitative easing (QE). Yet there is significant variation in QE programmes with important distributive consequences. Why has the Fed adopted multi-trillion-dollar bond-buying programmes in housing, while the ECB has not? This article argues that the Fed targeted the integrated housing finance market as a monetary transmission strategy to stimulate core elements of the US growth model: credit, demand, and consumption. In contrast, the ECB hardly stimulated housing given the eurozone’s fragmented housing finance markets and the macroeconomic frictions with some eurozone growth models, particularly export-oriented Germany. Analysing archival and interview data, this article traces the decisions of these central banks since the Great Recession, contributing to scholarship on the politics of central banking, economic policy in hard times, and the welfare state.     

未成年人审前羁押决定的客观化建构——以社会危险性量化评估结果为判断基础

受制于实用主义导向,我国审前羁押程序设计中侦查权一家独大,逮捕等羁押手段出现了功能性的异化倾向。在这一背景下,虽然通过相关立法改革,以及未成年人检察部门的成立,为在检察阶段建立未成年犯罪人的分流转处程序创造了条件,但建构未成年人羁押必要性审查模式或者"检察中心主义",彻底贯彻"未成年人特殊论"这一基本原则,仍有待于羁押必要性评估机制与相关配套措施的完善。就未成年人的审前羁押必要性评估机制而言,应围绕"未成年人社会危险性"这一关键要素的量化分析模式展开,在摸索评估客观化、程序化建构的同时,为解决社会危险性认定标准存在的"可操作性问题"积累经验。     

马钱子中毒生物检材的毛细管电泳法分析

测定马钱子蓄积中毒死者胃内容和肝组织中马钱子碱成分含量。以标准马钱子碱和送检马钱子药材粉末作对照 ,采用毛细管电泳仪在 190～ 6 0 0nm波长 ,扫描分析检材中马钱子碱成分含量。结果表明 :马钱子碱成分在检材中的含量分别为 5 83mg/ 10 0ml、 4 92mg/ 10 0 g和 3 0 7% (w/w )。确认死者的胃内容、肝组织中的高含量马钱子碱而引起的中毒死亡。     

Bildung und die „neue“ Sozialdemokratie: eine Analyse aus der Sicht der vergleichenden Staatsausgabenforschung

The rhetoric of “reformed” social democracy has emphasized education and investment in human capital formation since the 1990s. Nevertheless, scholarly accounts of social democratic government policies have neglected the study of education politics. This article addresses the question of whether the move from traditional to reformist social democracy can be traced in the analysis of public social and education spending in the 1980s and 1990s. I show that government participation of social democrats went along with increases in social transfer spending in the 1980s, whereas in the 1990s, social democrats have instead increased spending on education, and higher education in particular, and curtailed spending on social transfers. The final section of the article discusses the implications of these findings for the future development of partisan theory.     

Flexibility provisions in multilateral environmental treaties

In international politics, intergovernmental treaties provide the rules of the game. In this paper, we investigate the rules under which the contents of treaties may be changed, such as rules for adoption and entry into force and rules for dispute resolution. In the first part of the paper, we describe how frequently these rules are used in practice and how they are typically combined, based on 400 treaties and supplementary agreements from the field of international environmental law. Using correspondence analysis, we show that treaty provisions can be represented by a two-dimensional property space. The detected underlying dimensions express varying degrees of institutionalisation and flexibility, respectively. In the second part of the paper, we place amendment rules into the framework of a formal model in the incomplete contracts tradition. It is shown that there exists a trade-off between the risk of too little flexibility, which leads to frequent inefficient breach of the treaty, and the danger that the binding nature of the treaty and hence, the level of commitment by treaty members, is being undermined if the treaty can be amended too easily.