A world without meta-analysis

Berk criticizes meta-analysis on a host of statistical grounds. The criticisms are thoughtful, and may even seem compelling on first read. However, his criticisms are really a special case of the kinds of criticisms that can be leveled at all scientific endeavor. Science is rife with assumptions of greater or lesser plausibility, no more so in meta-analysis than in primary research. We trust in those assumptions only temporarily and heuristically. The answer is not to abandon ship, but rather to work to improve the endeavor at the margin, hoping that science is self-correcting in the long-run, and that our answers are not too far off despite the weaknesses of the enterprise.

论侦查启动之随机性——由儿童失踪立案程序转变透视我国侦查启动模式之利弊

我国刑事诉讼法在侦查程序之前设立了立案程序,并将其作为刑事诉讼的启动程序,这使得我国刑事侦查启动被归于典型的程序性启动模式。然而,实践中,立案程序的设计存在着严重的弊端,由此也产生了许多难以解决的问题。现今大多数国家都采用了随机型的侦查启动模式,且随机型侦查启动模式较之程序型启动模式更为科学、合理,更有利于实现刑事诉讼打击犯罪与保障人权的双重目的。可见,在当下,重构我国的侦查启动程序,已成为一个迫切需要我们解决的问题。     

Children in the environment: Forest day-care centers

Some features of early child care are more prominent in Norway than in other countries, such as emphasis on the outdoor environment. Of general relevance and interest is the form of day care provided by forest day-care centers. Three ideas form the development of these centers placed in wild areas. First, throughout history, Norwegians have had a close attachment to nature and some parents want to provide their children with outdoor experiences at an early age. Second, urging children to play outdoors characterizes the image many parents have of a happy, healthy childhood. Third, provision of day care for children has always been restricted in western countries, forcing parents to invent types of service that can become part of an ecological system that promotes healthy development.

The forest day-care centers developed recently represent a supplement to the wide typology of child care in the 21st century. The article outlines the connections between these ideas in general European and western history and Norwegian history and presents debate and decisions about a question dating from the last half of the 1980s. It concludes that the forest day-care centers are perhaps only a modern form of the original kindergarten concept, which started in Europe and America as gardens for children not gardens of children.     

Double Decades of Existence of the Kilum-Ijim Community Forest in Cameroon: What Conservation Lessons?

Abstract

Abstract

At a time when natural forests remain a substantial framework for solving manifold human-induced environmental problems, forest conservation efforts have often been met with a number of challenges, especially in the midst of growing populations of forest-adjacent communities in the developing countries of the world. However, the initiation of the Kilum-Ijim Forest Project in the Western Highland region of Cameroon (erroneously considered to have been a naturally savannized environment) twenty years ago tells a success conservation story. This study, therefore, examines the fate of the Kilum-Ijim Forest prior to the forest conservation project, the conservation efforts put in place to protect and restore the biodiversity of the area, the conservation challenges, and also proposes other areas of intervention for a continuous successful conservation legacy. Due to the constant population pressure and the resultant overexploitation of the Kilum Mountain forest, the original forest size, estimated at 17,500 hectares in 1963, was reduced to 10,500 hectares by 1983. In recognition of the umbilical link between forest and forest-adjacent communities, the Cameroon Government and BirdLife International liaised with the adjacent tribal communities for a sustainable way of managing the forest. While these communities benefit through the non-consumptive use of the forest and other alternative livelihood means, the ecological viabilities of the forest are equally promoted through biodiversity restoration. Due to this community-based management approach, the Kilum-Ijim forest remains an outstanding example of a richly endowed highland montane forest, with a number of endemic wildlife species. Today, conservation efforts have restored the forest size to over 20,000 hectares. Having understood the need for forest conservation and the ensuing conservation benefits, perhaps it is time to increase the forest conservation sites while more alternatives serving human needs are designed and promoted. This conservation legacy should also serve as an example worth emulating in other highland regions with a history of forest degradation.     

转变运作方式，提高退耕还林（草）的效益

实施西部大开发的重要工程──生态环境建设,应当培养市场主体,使民间组织或企业成为生态建设的主体。改变以往的政府行为为市场行为,以提高退耕还林( 草)的效益。     

The dynamic properties of individual-level party identification in the United States

Central to traditionalist and revisionist perspectives of individual-level party identification is a debate about the stability of party identification. We revisit the debate about the dynamic properties and processes underlying party identification. We present a conceptual framework that defines heterogeneity and state dependence as endpoints of a continuum underlying partisan stability, which is important in understanding an individual’s capacity for updating partisanship. Using panel data from the 1992-1996 National Election Study, we estimate dynamic, random effects multinomial logit models of party identification that distinguish between heterogeneity and “true state dependence.” In accord with traditionalist perspectives, our evidence suggests that in general, minimal state dependence underlies party identification; party identification is strongly stationary. However, we find that age enhances the magnitude of state dependence, which provides some support for revisionist theories. Overall, our work showcases how explaining individual-level dynamics expands our knowledge of partisan stability.     

苗族传统知识在山林管理中的运用和发展初探--以屯上苗寨为例

本文通过对贵州一个苗族自然寨山林资源及其管理方式的调查分析,说明随着社会、经济、人口、资源等因素的不断变化,其山林管理方式也在不断地推进和创新,但其根基显然延续了根植于社区习俗和文化中的一些传统知识和经验.认识、重视并发挥这种具有地域特色的社区传统知识在山林管理和保护中的作用,对于我们制定林地政策、促进山林资源的可持续发展具有非常重要的意义.     

《新青年》同人杂感风格之比较

《新青年》时期的陈独秀、胡适、刘半农、钱玄同、吴虞等的杂感在话题风格、说理风格、语言风格上具有各自的特点,共同丰富着早期的杂感创作,为后来的杂文、小品文,甚至其他文学样式的创作,在体式与语言表达上提供丰富的启示与广阔的发展空间。     

The Politics of Regulatory Change: National Forest Management Planning under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush

This paper examines regulatory change from the William J. Clinton administration through the presidency of George W. Bush by focusing on their respective efforts to alter national forest planning procedures mandated by the National Forest Management Act of 1976 (NFMA). While rule making has become an important alternative pathway for making policy, the strategies used to develop a new rule may vary among presidents because of differing values and management styles. Both presidents were adept at framing the planning regulation to reflect dominant values such as preserving ecosystems (Clinton) or administrative efficiency (Bush). Between‐administration differences in regulatory tactics also tended to alter the relative importance of institutional venues and, by extension, the influence exercised by differing political constituencies.     

Predicting the postmortem interval using human intestinal microbiome data and random forest algorithm

Gradual changes in microbial communities in a human body after death can be used to determine postmortem interval (PMI). In this study, gut microflora samples were collected from the vermiform appendix and the transverse colon of human cadavers with PMIs between 5 and 192 h. The results revealed that the appendix might be an excellent intestinal sampling site and the appendix flora had an inferred succession rule during human body decomposition. Firmicutes, Bacteroidetes, and their respective subclasses showed a predictable succession rule in relative abundance over time. A Random Forest regression model was developed to correlate human gut microbiota with PMI. We believe that our findings have increased the knowledge of the composition and abundance of the gut microbiota in human corpses, and suggest that the use of the human appendix microbial succession may be a potential method for forensic estimation of the time of death.