The dynamic properties of individual-level party identification in the United States

Central to traditionalist and revisionist perspectives of individual-level party identification is a debate about the stability of party identification. We revisit the debate about the dynamic properties and processes underlying party identification. We present a conceptual framework that defines heterogeneity and state dependence as endpoints of a continuum underlying partisan stability, which is important in understanding an individual’s capacity for updating partisanship. Using panel data from the 1992-1996 National Election Study, we estimate dynamic, random effects multinomial logit models of party identification that distinguish between heterogeneity and “true state dependence.” In accord with traditionalist perspectives, our evidence suggests that in general, minimal state dependence underlies party identification; party identification is strongly stationary. However, we find that age enhances the magnitude of state dependence, which provides some support for revisionist theories. Overall, our work showcases how explaining individual-level dynamics expands our knowledge of partisan stability.     

Electoral institutions and campaigning in comparative perspective: Electioneering in European Parliament elections

This article develops and tests a number of competing expectations (institutional, party and individual) about what influenced the campaign activity of individual parliamentary candidates for the 2004 European Parliament elections. The principal interest is in the effects of variations in the design of electoral institutions across the Member States of the European Union. Based on the analysis, it is argued that an important distinction needs to be made between campaign effort and campaign goals, with electoral institutional factors having a more significant role over the latter.     

维护和发展广西“四个模范”的光荣

广西之所以堪称民族团结的模范、维护统一的模范、维护稳定的模范,是我国民族关系‘三个离不开’的模范,主要是应归功于党和国家正确的民族政策;广西壮族自治区各级党委、政府认真贯彻落实党的民族政策,脚踏实地地带领全区共同团结奋斗、共同繁荣发展;兄弟省区、兄弟民族的无私、大力的支援;广西各族人民对中华民族的坚定不移的认同。要维护和发展广西"四个模范",必须坚持和完善民族区域自治制度,深入贯彻落实科学发展观,推进广西经济社会又好又快发展,正确处理各类社会矛盾,加强宣传教育,推动民族交流,巩固和发展平等、团结、互助、和谐的社会主义民族关系。     

The determinants of value of incoming cross-border mergers & acquisitions in European transition countries

This research aims to determine variables that affect the aggregate value of incoming cross-border M&As in European transitional countries. Dynamic panel models have been estimated using Arellano and Bond GMM estimator for period between year 1994 and 2008. The ratio of the total value of cross-border M&A to GDP of the country is the dependent variable. Independent variables include following indicators: lagged value of cross-border M&A to GDP, lagged GDP per capita, lagged GDP growth, inflation, interest rate spread, lagged private credit to GDP ratio, market capitalization to GDP ratio, lagged rule of law and lagged control of corruption.     

Racial composition,sentencing reforms,and rates of incarceration, 1970–1980

Association with delinquent peer groups is one of the most salient predictors of delinquent behavior. Despite the widespread documentation of these effects, little is known about whether the delinquent peer effect is conditioned by individual‐level characteristics. Using data from a multi‐wave survey of Mexican‐American adolescents, this study explored the interactive effect of susceptibility to peer influence and differential association with delinquent peers on delinquent outcomes. Results suggested that the delinquent peer effect on self‐reported delinquency is amplified when an adolescent is highly susceptible to peer influence. Analyses also indicated that this moderating effect varies according to offense seriousness. Specifically, the conditioning effect is most important when considering acts of serious delinquency.     

论全力推动农机专业合作社发展的综合效应和重要意义——以农业大省河南省为例

该文认为发展农机专业合作社,有利于加强农民合作、推进土地流转、引导农业投资、促进农民增收以及强化基础设施建设等,对完善统分结合双层经营体制、开展适度规模经营、促进合作经济组织健康成长、保障国家粮食安全以及加快转变农业发展方式等方面具有重大意义。为此,该文建议,全力推动农机专业合作社的发展。     

欧亚经济共同体经济一体化及其效应分析

欧亚经济共同体是以俄罗斯为主导的独联体框架内最重要的经济一体化组织。自2000年诞生以来,该组织在建立关税同盟方面取得了重大实质性进展,建立统一运输空间、统一能源市场和统一社会经济空间的工作稳步推进,金融和货币领域合作有所加强,经济一体化的静态效应、动态效应,以及非传统经济效应和"外溢"效应开始逐步显现。但由于成员国经济发展水平差距较大,多数成员国的经济规模很小,且共同体内实行的是不同速度的一体化进程,共同体的一体化效应因而又具有一定的局限性。随着欧亚经济共同体内俄白哈关税同盟的正式启动,欧亚经济共同体的一体化效应将明显改观。     

PARTICIPATION AND FREQUENCY DURING CRIMINAL CAREERS ACROSS THE LIFE SPAN*

Recent advances and debates surrounding general and developmental as well as static and dynamic theories of crime can be traced to the 1986 National Academy of Science's Report on criminal careers and the discussion it generated. A key point of contention has been regarding the interpretation of the age–crime curve. According to Gottfredson and Hirschi (1986), the decline in the age–crime curve in early adulthood reflects decreasing individual offending frequency (λ) after the peak. Blumstein et al. (1986) claimed that the decline in the aggregate age–crime curve also could be attributable to the termination of criminal careers, and the average value of l could stay constant (or increase with age) for those offenders who remain active after that peak. Using data from the Criminal Career and Life Course Study—including information on criminal convictions across 60 years of almost 5,000 persons convicted in the Netherlands—and applying a two-part growth model that explicitly distinguishes between participation and frequency, the study outlined in this article assessed the participation–frequency debate. Results suggest that the decline in the age–crime curve in early adulthood reflects both decreasing individual offending participation and frequency after the peak, that the probabilities of participation and frequency are significantly related at the individual level, and that sex and marriage influence both participation and frequency.     

Market structures,political surroundings,and merger remedies: an empirical investigation of the EC’s decisions

This paper aims to build and empirically evaluate a discrete choice model of merger remedies as a basis for policy analysis. The database consists of 229 merger cases accepted in Phase I or Phase II of the European merger process between 1990 and 2005. We focus on the following question: Which merging firms’ characteristics lead the European Commission to decide whether to require conditional acceptance? Although a lot of empirical studies have been carried out these last years, ours is distinguished by at least two original features. First, we explore determinant factors of the Commission’s decisions with a neural network model differentiating cases accepted with or without remedies (either structural or behavioral). Secondly, we implement three multinomial logit models. We find that variables related to high market power lead more frequently to a remedy outcome, no matter the phase. Innovative industries such as energy, transportation and communications positively affect the probability of a behavioral remedy. Lastly, former Competition Commissioner Mario Monti’s policy appears to be pro-remedy, i.e. seeking concessions from merging parties.