A survival model with dependent competing events and right-hand censoring: Probation and parole as an illustration

Researchers are frequently interested in estimating the elapsed time until the occurrence of an event, such as an arrest following release from prison, dissolution of a marriage, and death following the onset of a disease. Estimation is often hindered by the occurrence of a competing event, which prevents the event of interest from being observed, and by limited follow-up periods. A parametric procedure developed in this paper is suitable for dealing with nonrepeatable competing events when the events are correlated and when independent righthand censoring also exists. Weak distributional assumptions are accommodated by using a Box-Cox transformation and by explicit modeling of heteroscedasticity. The procedure is applied to data pertaining to failure on probabation and parole.     

Multiple democracies: political cultures and democratic variety in post-enlargement Europe

Democratization studies endorses a liberal view of democracy and political culture. Insufficient notice is taken of alternative models of democracy. I argue that a ‘multiple democracies’ approach that takes potential variety in democratic political cultures into account has three advantages over the conventional approach: it is sensitive to the historical and contextual nature of democratic regimes, it takes a dual imaginary into account, and it is able to conceptualize the emergence of innovative forms of political culture. Instead of a ‘model approach’, I suggest a multiple democracies approach that identifies political cultures by means of available patterns of cultural repertoires or ethics of democracy.     

《反垄断法》实施的预期效应探究

我国的《反垄断法》是国家基于“公平与效率”的价值追求而创设的市场经济基础·肄法律，旨在维护市场有序竞争，落实国家竞争、产业等经济政策，实现国家经济管理职能。它的实施必将产生一系列预期效应：国家竞争政策统一、反垄断指南具法律效力、“成文法”与“判例法”相融合、为保护国家利益增添新的法律手段以及促进我国行政管理体制的进一步改革等。     

What consideration sets can teach us about electoral competition: A two-hurdle model

Consideration set models (CSMs) offer a novel way to study electoral behavior. Until now, they have been mostly studied at the micro-level of the voter's decision process. By contrast, we focus on the implications of CSMs for understanding the phenomenon of party competition. We propose a two hurdle model whereby parties compete for both consideration and selection, pursuant the consideration and choice stages of the CSM. We operationalize these hurdles in terms of a party's inclusivity—is it being considered?—and exclusivity—is it considered on its own?—and formally derive lower- and upper-bounds for the electoral fortunes of the party. We also show how consideration set data can be used to sketch the competition landscape in an election and to characterize the system-wide competitiveness of a political system. We illustrate our concepts and ideas using data from the 2010 Dutch and 2014 Swedish parliamentary elections.     

Rallying in fear? Estimating the effect of the UK COVID-19 lockdown with a natural experiment

We use a natural experiment to study how the announcement of the UK COVID-19 lockdown affected citizens' attitudes towards the pandemic and the government's response to it. On the day of the lockdown announcement, YouGov ran a survey that captured responses before and after the announcement. Comparison of these responses suggests that the lockdown announcement made people more supportive of the government's response to the crisis but also (perhaps surprisingly) more concerned about the pandemic. Analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects suggests that the announcement narrowed gaps in perceptions of the crisis, increasing support for the government's response especially among those who had been least supportive and increasing concern about the pandemic especially among those who had been least concerned. Overall, the findings highlight a tension inherent in governing during times of crisis: actions that increase people's confidence in government and induce compliance with government directives may also tend to increase anxiety among the population.     

Automated detection and classification of counterfeit banknotes using quantitative features captured by spectral-domain optical coherence tomography

Counterfeiting of banknotes is still a severe crime problem in many countries. One of the most significant issue for solving the crime is to classify the counterfeit types and identify the sources. Most of the current methods to classify counterfeit banknotes rely on manual examination that is time-consuming and labor-intensive. Moreover, these methods only detect surface features which can be easily imitated through advanced printing technology. In this study, an automated method based on optical coherence tomography (OCT) and machine-learning algorithms was proposed to classify different types of banknotes based on the internal features. A spectral-domain OCT (SD-OCT) system was employed for sub-surface imaging and quantitative assessment of banknotes. A total of 29 Chinese 100-Yuan banknotes were collected, in which 4 of them were real and 25 of them were counterfeiting by three different printing processes. Each banknote was imaged 10 times in 3 distinct regions, which resulted in a dataset of 290 samples. Each sample was characterized by extracting 2 A-scan (OCT signal intensity along depth) based features and 14B-scan (cross-sectional OCT images) based features. Several machine-learning models, including logistic regression (LR), support vector machines (SVM), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and random forest (RF), were built and optimized as the classifiers that were trained using 203 samples and applied to predict 87 testing samples. The best performance was achieved by SVM classifier in which the sensitivity of 96.55% and specificity of 98.85% were obtained in discriminating between authentic and counterfeit banknotes, and the sensitivity of 94.67% and specificity of 98.22% were obtained in predicting the types of counterfeit banknotes. These classifiers were also evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study where A-scan and B-scan derived features from OCT images have been used for the detection and classification of different types of counterfeit banknotes.     

论传统中国的“性情司法”及其实际效应

从文本形式看,传统中国法律的篇章结构、条文体系具有超强的稳定性,有的可以因袭数千年,但法律文本规制与司法实践效应之间存在极大反差,文本的预期价值往往难以实现。其中一个重要原因就是司法主体的性情取向对司法实际效应的影响明显。通过类型化分析,传统中国以皇帝及官员为主的司法主体的性情取向可以归纳为:躬亲狱讼型、宽大仁恕型、秉公行法型、才情饱满型、揆情酌理型、残忍冷酷型、慵懒昏朽型等几大类,它们直接影响到司法的公正性、效率性及社会性效应。研究传统中国法律的价值与功能,既要注意法律文本,更要注意其运作状况及实际效应,考察和分析司法主体的性情司法及其实际效应,不失为一个独特视角。     

全球化、身份政治与法律

美国弗吉尼亚理工大学校园枪击案引发了身份对当代人和当代社会深刻影响实施的思考。身份的连带责任效应表明,拥有某种身份的人所实施的违反道德或法律的行为必然会连累到其他拥有相同身份的人。身份的搭便车效应表明,拥有某种身份的人所做出的高尚或伟大的行为可能会惠及到其他拥有相同身份的人。身份的刻板印象效应表明,社会上形成的对某一身份的刻板印象会影响拥有该身份的个人的命运和社会地位。法律上的很多制度,包括连带责任制度、结社自由制度、反歧视制度等,与身份的这些效应和影响之间存在着密切的关系。     

A discussion of the merits of random man not excluded and likelihood ratios

DNA mixture interpretation is undertaken either by calculating a LR or an exclusion probability (RMNE or its complement CPI). Debate exists as to which has the greater claim. The merits and drawbacks of the two approaches are discussed. We conclude that the two matters that appear to have real force are: (1) LRs are more difficult to present in court and (2) the RMNE statistic wastes information that should be utilised.     

痕检技术实验教学如何体现公安特色

公安院校应正确理解公安教育痕检技术实验课的性质,针对目前各公安高校课程实置和实施的现状,结合公安实践中的需要,改革公安痕检技术实验课的教学模式,分类设置,实施多种教学方法,提高教学效果。