The Relationships Between Childhood Sexual Abuse,Social Anxiety,and Symptoms of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Women

The relationships between childhood sexual abuse, social anxiety, and symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder were examined in a sample of 313 undergraduate women. Thirty-one percent of the women reported some form of sexual abuse in childhood. Women with a history of sexual abuse reported more symptoms of anxiety, distress in social situations, and posttraumatic stress disorder than other women. Women who experienced attempted or actual intercourse reported more avoidance than women with no history of abuse and women with exposure only, and more PTSD symptoms than all other groups of women. Women who experienced fondling reported more PTSD symptoms than women with no history of abuse. Pressure, age of onset of abuse, abuse by a family friend, and abuse by other perpetrators were all significant abuse characteristics in predicting adult social anxiety. Implications of these results for research and interventions are discussed.     

An Alternative Approach to Estimating Who is Most Likely to Respond to Changes in Registration Laws

Scholars often seek to understand which individuals are most responsive to the change in some treatment. Such work inevitably faces issues of identification. When the dependent variable is binary, the assumption that the largest effect occurs where p = 0.5 is also encountered. I apply Manski’s [(1995). Identification problems in the social sciences. Cambridge: Harvard University Press] non-parametric Bounds approach, which relaxes the functional form and distributional assumptions found in traditional models, in an attempt to resolve the long standing debate on which types of individuals are most affected by changes in registration laws. Under the standard assumption that treats the selection of registration laws as exogenous, the results revise the current understanding. By exploring the power of various behavioral assumptions, new insights into the study of policy changes emerge, calling into question some of the assumptions that are standard in the literature.

Media Priming in a Multi-Party Context: A Controlled Naturalistic Study in Political Communication

This study investigates media priming effects in the context of a Summit meeting of European Union (EU) leaders. It differs in four ways from most previous non-experimental priming studies: (1) it provides survey data accompanied by a content analysis of the news, (2) it compares priming effects on evaluations of a number of political leaders, who differed in their visibility in the news, (3) it involves an issue with low salience, and (4) it studies priming effects in the context of a European Parliamentary democracy. The study involves a two-wave panel study (before and after the Summit) on a representative sample of 817 Dutch adults, and a content analysis of the newspaper and television news in the 8 weeks leading up to the Summit meeting. The study shows that media priming effects occur only for the politicians who appeared visible in the news in connection with the issue. The media priming effects were not significantly moderated by political attentiveness or by political knowledge. We also explore the aggregate level consequences of priming for the popularity of leaders, and demonstrate that, as a result of media priming, two politicians became more popular, despite having received a bad press.

羁押必要性之检察审查制度的程序构建

检察审查羁押必要性的适用对象是修正后的刑事诉讼法第79条第一款的被羁押者。审查程序的启动可以是检察机关依据职权审查,也可以是依据被羁押者或其近亲属、法定代理人、其委托的辩护律师申请而进行审查。间隔性审查的期限以60日为宜。审查的方式是对席制和书面调查制,根据不同的方式采取不同的程序。检察审查后作出的无羁押必要的决定应该具有程序效力,但修正后的刑事诉讼法并没有规定该决定的程序执行效力。这在以后的司法实践中可能出现羁押必要性审查制度虚置的现象。     

Voter sincerity and the time-of-voting-decision

This article explores the relationship between vote sincerity and the time at which vote decisions are finalized. It posits that a specific set of competitive circumstances are necessary for insincere voting to occur, and that voters' understanding of these circumstances can be influenced by exposure to information during a campaign. The article introduces a new method of operationalizing a commonly overlooked type of insincere voting: the protest voter. As defined here, protest voters express their political dissatisfaction by supporting an uncompetitive non-traditional party that is not their first preference. Canadian Election Study data reveal that protest voters make up a small, but noteworthy segment of the electorate and that insincere voters tend to make their vote decisions relatively late.     

Campaigns and the prediction of election outcomes: Can historical and campaign-period prediction models be combined?

There are two approaches to predicting election outcomes: (1) a historical approach, which uses past election results alongside macroeconomic and political variables to forecast election results up to a year in advance, and (2) a campaign-oriented approach, which uses current campaign trends to forecast vote shares at the end of the campaign. They are in some way at odds—one approach says the campaign doesn't matter, the other focuses entirely on the campaign. This article considers whether the two approaches might be usefully combined; it considers whether the prediction errors in historical models may be related to trends during the campaign. That possibility is tested here using 17 elections in the US, UK and Canada, combining historical predictions and automated content analyses of campaign-period media content. Results suggest that campaigns do not account for errors in the historical predictions; but there may be other ways in which campaigns matter in conjunction with historical models.     

Testing the power of arguments in referendums: A Bradley–Terry approach

How can we determine which arguments in a referendum are most persuasive? We show that the Bradley–Terry model has several features that make it well-suited to this task, and thus preferable to other, more conventional approaches. Using a survey experiment conducted during an electoral reform referendum in Ontario, Canada in October 2007, we demonstrate how unstructured and structured Bradley–Terry models can be straightforwardly fitted and interpreted. In doing so, we gain insight into the factors which determine support for electoral reform. We identify a status quo bias and find that power varies with mention of fairness, local control over candidate selection, and the role of political parties. We conclude by discussing the limits, extensions and further applications of such models in electoral studies and political science more broadly.     

社会治安防控体系的基本内涵与运行模式

良好的社会治安是维护社会秩序稳定的保障。为了严密防控违法犯罪活动,有效应对并解决各种社会治安问题,必须充分整合各种社会防控力量,构建一套以违法犯罪为对象的防控体系。为确保这一体系的有效运行,其运行模式必须由多元主体来开展社会治安防控,做到长远目标与现实目标的有机结合,并采用各种行之有效的防控措施。     

Australia and the Baltic States, 1919–1945

Praised by international organizations, Estonia and Slovenia have long been considered among the most successful post-communist states. Estonia quickly transformed itself into one of the most liberal economies in the world, whereas Slovenia opted for a social justice-oriented market economy. Still, the roots of their success coincide in that consensus played a crucial role. We argue that the public sphere was never as repressed in Estonia and Slovenia during the communist period as it was elsewhere. Distinct national identities continued to be formed and re-formed by intellectuals during the decades of communist rule, who assumed roles as political leaders when the transition started. Consensus based on these national identities legitimized reform policies for the entire decade of the 1990s.