Rallying Votes? A Multilevel Approach to Understanding Voter Decision-Making in the 2016 Presidential Nominating Contests

The 2016 presidential nominating process presented the American public with an interesting and tumultuous set of contests. Despite the unique nature of both the Democratic and Republican contests, the candidates stuck to the usual campaign activities to help influence voters. However, one of these campaign tactics, campaign visits, has been vastly understudied. Using a uniquely compiled dataset and a hierarchical linear model, I am able to test how campaign effects, including visits, as well as an individual’s predispositions impacted vote choice in the 2016 presidential nominating contests. The results demonstrate that the 2016 presidential nominating contests were decided based on a combination of both campaign activities and individual-level predictors.     

Forecasting the 2015 British general election: The Seats-Votes model

This paper applies the Seats-Votes Model to the task of forecasting the outcome of the 2015 election in Britain in terms of the seats won by the three major parties. The model derives originally from the ‘Law of Cubic Proportions’ the first formal statistical election forecasting model to be developed in Britain. It is an aggregate model which utilises the seats won by the major parties in the previous general election together with vote intentions six months prior to the general election to forecast seats. The model was reasonably successful in forecasting the 2005 and 2010 general elections, but has to be modified to take into account the ‘regime shift’ which occurred when the Liberal Democrats went into coalition with the Conservatives in 2010.     

京族经济发展模式变迁及启示

党和政府一直关注人口较少民族的发展,出台一系列的政策措施推进人口较少民族的发展.京族是22个人口较少民族之一,伴随着广西壮族自治区成立50周年的步伐,已经从贫困落后步入了富裕文明,总结其经济发展的经验教训,对其他民族地区经济的发展有较高的理论价值和现实意义.     

论公司转投资的法律规制

转投资是公司重要的经营方式之一,但也可能带来负面效应,如资本虚增,控股公司将从属公司作为规避法律、逃避债务的工具,经营者控制公司,债权人或小股东利益受损等。国外立法对转投资的规制措施可分为事前规制与事后规制两类。我国新公司法对转投资的规定较旧公司法有明显进步,但仍存在缺乏转投资披露制度、缺乏相互持股限制和关联公司制度等不足,应进行补充完善。     

An empirical test of presidentialism's effect on party competition

This article argues that party competition in legislative elections is partly a function of presidential elections. Previous research on spatial competition has assumed that parties are competing in parliamentary regimes, where the only election of concern for parties and voters is the legislative election. However, in presidential regimes, presidential elections lead to relatively centrist positioning of candidates, and coattail effects from the presidential elections help shape the legislative elections. Using data from the Comparative Manifestos Project, I show that the major parties of the left and right in legislative elections are ideologically closer to each other in presidential regimes than major parties in parliamentary regimes.     

The Cadillac,the mother-in-law,and the ballot: Individual and contextual roots of ambivalence in Swiss direct democracy

Citizens may experience irreconcilable and conflictive values or feelings about a political issue. They may, for instance, both believe in a woman's right to autonomy over her body (pro choice) and that human life begins before birth (pro life). This conflictive situation – referred to as ambivalence in relevant literature – has detrimental effects on political choices. For instance, ambivalence may enhance instability in candidates' evaluations, delay the formation of vote intentions, and finally weaken predictions on vote choices.This being, literature has less looked at what may induce ambivalence, and especially on how informational context may affect it. Our paper aims to compensate for this lack, by assessing under which individual and contextual conditions ambivalence has more chances to be felt by citizens. Through a series of hierarchical estimations based on post-electoral data on Swiss direct democracy and original data retracing content of political campaigns, we will demonstrate that individual determinants (political sophistication, exposure to political campaigns, and heuristics) as well as political campaigning (intensity and negativism) strongly determine the existence of ambivalence.     

Can we explain the Santa Clara county housing market?

Abstract

Santa Clara County has recently had the highest house prices of any large housing market in the nation. Part of the explanation lies in the extraordinarily low user cost of housing caused by the interaction of high incomes and the tax deductions available to homeowners. But this article also evaluates whether changes in stock wealth have been responsible for the recent increase in housing prices in Santa Clara County.

Although three different stock market measures add explanatory power to a model of housing prices in the region, none of these indexes predicts the housing price increases seen in 1999 and 2000. In fact, the within‐sample models have .R‐squares of only 0.22, and even the best model (based on the Standard & Poor's 500) does not forecast well out of sample. Still, the market is unusual in that stock prices seem to have some impact on house prices.     

论我国“公务员热”的成因与现实影响

公务员制度的实施是我国人事行政规范化、法制化、科学化的标志。自该制度实施以来,公共职位的竞争日趋激烈。过度的竞争源自于民族文化和经济利益多种因素,这种状况对政府自身和社会既有积极有利的一面:有利于危机意识、竞争意识和成本意识的形成;又会产生消极有害影响:就业的反示范效应与行政成本的激增。     

论先进典型宣传的时代困境与应对

典型宣传作为我党政治工作中一道独特的实践图景承载着巨大的时代意涵,一方面它是引领人民群众发展进步的"助推器"与"方向盘",另一方面则是展现正面形象与弘扬社会主旋律的"重要窗口"。在多元价值并存的时代,典型宣传面临着巨大的冲击与挑战,其中既有社会大环境影响,更有宣传主体自身的原因。因此,维护典型人物的严肃性与可信性,提升宣传内容的可读性与生动性,关注受众群体的心理感受和加强不同媒体间的通力合作是提升先进典型宣传效果的实践路径。