Revisiting the Effects of Case Reports in the News

Synthesizing several theories about the likely impact of case reports in the news, we propose that the impact of featuring identified victims in a news story is contingent on the degree of similarity between the audience member and the identified victims. We execute a population-based survey experiment involving immigration policy to examine our theory. Our results suggest that featuring specific, identified victims in a news story will promote more supportive policy opinions than otherwise identical stories about unidentified victims, but only when the victim is highly similar to the audience member. Conversely, case reports featuring identified people who are dissimilar to the audience member will decrease the extent to which the story encourages victim-supportive policy attitudes. Overall, our experimental findings shed light on the conditions under which the inclusion of case reports increases versus decreases the policy relevance of news stories. Our findings also help explain previous inconsistencies in findings about the impact of case reports. Additional analyses allow us to speculate as to the reasons for the differential direction of effects.     

改革官僚制:政府治理模式的新趋势

现代官僚制兴起于十七八世纪.官僚制是整合国家权力的重要工具.欧洲、非欧民族国家的兴起都与在国内实行科层制的实践相关.但是,随着时代的变迁,官僚制难以适应已经变化了的政治、经济和技术环境.改革官僚制已成为发达国家行政改革的重要内容.这种政府治理模式的变迁,对发展中国家的政治改革有着重要的参考价值.     

试论中国加入WTO对社会治安的积极效应

加入WTO将使中国经济出现一个跨越式发展,而经济发展正是社会稳定的基本物质条件;有利于进一步推进依法治国基本国策施行,优化中国的法治环境;有利于加快我国犯罪预防控制的现代化进程;有利于加强我国与国际间的合作,增强对付国际型犯罪的协调配合机制。     

A longitudinal analysis of factors associated with reporting violent crimes to the police

The use of generalized estimating equations and time-series methods for fitting longitudinal models in the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is discussed, with reference to the relation between the reporting of a violent crime to the police and previous victimizations. Two longitudinal models are fit to NCVS data to predict the likelihood of reporting a violent crime to the police based on characteristics of the victim and the incident and based on previous victimization experiences. In both models, it is found that higher reporting rates are associated with positive results accruing from reporting previous victimization to the police.     

桂林市旅游业发展模式的理性思考

地市合并为桂林旅游业提供了广阔的发展空间，文章从发展理念，项目建设，市场主体培育，区域合作，环境建设等方面分析了桂林旅游业10年发展历程所取得的成就和经验，从旅游发展规律上探讨了实施政府主导旅游发展，转变发展方式，改革创新，协调发展等策略的重要意义。     

Return on Investment in Innovation: Implications for Institutions and National Agencies*

Commercial success in universities in the USA and Canada has resulted in many other countries taking steps to emulate this performance and major technology transfer and commercialisation support programmes have been launched in UK, Europe, Australia, Japan and many other countries—including South Africa. Unrealistic expectations have, however, been generated by the spectacular successes of a relatively few institutions and it is not always realised that the success from commercialisation is proportional to the magnitude of the investment in research. Without a well funded, high quality research system, it is not possible for technology transfer to make any significant contribution to economic development. The possible economic returns to higher education institutions from commercialisation of research can be estimated using international benchmarks. This forecast uses a combination of an institutional return on investment model and a simple economic projection. The model is generic and can be adapted for use in any institution. As more data becomes available from local (and international) sources, the model will be refined to give better estimates. The model is dynamic and shows, quantitatively, why it can take up to 10 years for an institution, and 20 years nationally, to attain a positive rate of return from an investment in research and technology transfer. The model enables the long-term impact of policy decisions, in an institution and nationally, to be examined and alternative scenarios explored. The performance of individual institutions is, however, highly variable and unpredictable. This is even for those institutions that are comparable in size and maturity. A large portfolio of patents and licences is required to give a reasonable probability of positive returns. This may be possible at a national level, but is problematic in smaller institutions—and smaller countries. Because the benefits of the innovation system are captured largely at national level, with institutions having a high uncertainty, public sector support to reduce the institutional risk is necessary to assist institutions to make the necessary investments. Technology transfer is of course only one element of the overall research and innovation value chain. All elements must be functioning effectively to derive the economic and social benefits from research. In addition to a strong research system, adequate incentives must exist to encourage academics to participate, particularly with regard to the crucial initial step of invention disclosure. After disclosure, sufficient institutional capacity must be in place to take an idea, evaluate it, protect the intellectual property appropriately and then seek a path to commercialisation through either licensing or start-up company formation. *Based on the paper “Return on Investment in Innovation: Implications for Institutions and National Agencies” presented at The First Globelics Conference on Innovation Systems and Development Strategies for the Third Millennium, Rio de Janeiro, November 2003.     

AN EXAMINATION OF OFFENSE SPECIALIZATION USING MARGINAL LOGIT MODELS*

Research on offense specialization has concluded that there is a great deal of versatility in offending. Although the preponderance of evidence supports versatility, some research points to a small but significant tendency to specialize. Beyond this observation there is little consensus over the degree of offense specialization, the similarities and differences between people who commit violent acts and those who engage in other criminal behavior, or the extent to which general causal processes are sufficient to explain variation in diverse forms of crime and delinquency. At the heart of the confusion is the fact that criminal behaviors across a wide spectrum are positively correlated with one another. In our opinion, the conclusion that general offending trumps offense specialization is the result of research designs that predetermined such a conclusion. We propose an alternative method, marginal logit modeling, that supports many desirable features suited to the investigation of offense specialization. We analyze nine self‐reported delinquent behaviors (with a tenth category representing “No Offense”) from the Add Health study. We show that violent offenders are more likely to engage in additional violent offenses, nonviolent offenders are more likely to engage in additional nonviolent offenses. For some offense types, we find no evidence of a tendency to commit both violent and nonviolent offending. For others, the offense generalization effect is weak compared to the offense specialization effect.     

秩序与立法：台湾当局大陆经贸立法分析

秩序是社会获得存在和发展的必然要求,也是法律的重要价值目标之一。人类法治 化历程存在着两种发展模式,其一为建构理性主义路径,另一为经验理性主义路径,两者都殊途 同归地实现了法治化道路。为此,台湾当局在对大陆经贸立法活动中选择建构理性模式并无可厚 非,问题在于,台湾当局的大陆经贸立法进程,在相当程度上忽视了秩序的“自发性”,从而使 得经由立法活动输出的相关法令无法达成法律应有的功能。因此,台湾的大陆经贸立法范式有待 进一步转换,即在立法政策上,实现从以“政治为导向”向以“经济为导向”的转换;在立法内 容上,实现“差别待遇”向“公平待遇”的转换。     

论用人单位劳动规章的法律效力

近几年劳动争议案件大量增加,用人单位单方制定的劳动规章是否具有法律效力,往往成为解决 争议的焦点。探讨用人单位制定劳动规章的法律依据,合法有效的劳动规章应当具备的法律要 件,用人单位劳动规章与劳动合同和集体合同的法律关系等诸方面问题。     

DEVELOPMENTAL TRAJECTORY GROUPS: FACT OR A USEFUL STATISTICAL FICTION?*

A rapidly growing literature in criminology and psychology uses a group‐based methodology to identify and analyze developmental trajectories. Some confusion has arisen about the interpretation of this novel statistical model and with it some degree of cautionary commentary. We begin with a discussion of the role of trajectory groups as a statistical device for approximating population differences in developmental trajectories. We then discuss three misconceptions about group‐based trajectory modeling that stem from misunderstandings about the approximating role of trajectory groups: (1) individuals actually belong to a trajectory group, (2) the number of trajectory groups is immutable, and (3) the trajectories of group members follow the group‐level trajectory in lock step. We also point out that groupbased statistical modeling is not bound at the hip to the testing of taxonomic theories, and can just as well be used to test nontaxonomic theories.