Developmental Trajectories and Intentional Actions

The article turns a critical eye on problems arising from use of largesamples and complicated statistics to handle multilevel designs. I arguethat although these have a legitimate role to play in discovering causalrelations, valuable information can be lost or distorted in the processof their use. Exploratory classification and tree diagrams show howtransitional analyses can unpack effects of community, family, priormisbehavior, juvenile delinquency, and incarceration on adult criminalbehavior. The analyses showed that in the worst neighborhoods, disruptivebehavior had little discriminating power with regard to juveniledelinquency or adult crime. They showed also that good family interactionsserve as protection against crime in all types of neighborhoods. ConstructTheory, I suggest, is a way to understand the influences that seem toproduce criminal behavior.     

The Behavioral Effects of Environmental Regimes: Collective-Action vs. Social-Practice Models

International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics - Most observers agree that institutions play significant roles both in causing and in confronting large scale environmental...     

How you can tell if the simulations in computational criminology are any good

Computational criminology applies computer simulations to study topics of interest for criminologists. Just as for all computer modelling in science, the validity of the simulations ultimately depends on whether they are able to reproduce empirical phenomena with sufficient accuracy. The only way in which this can be determined is by comparing model output to real observations. This paper provides an overview of how such model evaluations can be undertaken.

Identifying Southwest Hispanics using nonmetric traits and the cultural profile

Due to the increasing number of Southwest Hispanics in the United States, as well as the overwhelming number of foreign nationals that die every year trying to enter the United States along the southern United States border with Mexico, new methods for classifying individuals have been established at the Pima County Office of the Medical Examiner in Tucson, Arizona (PCOME). For each of the past 5 years, the PCOME has investigated a record number of deaths associated with these border crossings. The overwhelming majority of the identified decedents are Mexican Nationals. However, approximately 25% of these undocumented border crossers have yet to be identified, making it clear that improved methods for human identification are greatly needed. The first goal of this paper is to delineate the suite of skeletal nonmetric traits utilized in assessing Southwest Hispanic ancestry at the PCOME. This suite of nonmetric traits has proven to be an effective component in establishing the "biological profile" of unknown individuals in these cases. The second goal of this paper is to introduce methods used at the PCOME to establish the "cultural profile" of individuals in these cases. The "cultural profile" is a set of identification criteria that include: the geographic context of recovery, personal effects, dental health, and cultural accoutrements. Establishing the "cultural profile" in these cases is essential in identifying individuals as foreign nationals who have died trying to cross the border.     

中国汉族女性青少年法医学活体骨龄推断数学模型的建立

目的建立推断中国汉族女性青少年活体骨龄的数学模型。方法摄取华中、华南及华东等地区的838名年龄介于11～20周岁正常女性青少年双侧锁骨胸骨端以及左侧肩、肘、腕、髋、膝、踝关节的X线片。依据青少年骨发育分级标准对24项骨骼发育指标进行阅片、分级,结合考虑身高、体质量及地区等影响因素．应用SAS8．1及SPSS11．0软件进行统计学处理,探索各指标与年龄的相关性。结果建立了我国汉族女性青少年利用锁骨胸骨端及6大关节骨骺闭合程度联合推断活体年龄的多元回归数学模型．推导出判定我国汉族女性青少年是否已满14、16和18周岁的Fisher’S两类判别分析方程。结论本研究所建立的判定活体年龄的数学模型丰富了活体年龄的法医学鉴定方法,有利于提高活体骨龄鉴定方法的科学性和结论的准确性。     

论我国“公务员热”的成因与现实影响

公务员制度的实施是我国人事行政规范化、法制化、科学化的标志。自该制度实施以来,公共职位的竞争日趋激烈。过度的竞争源自于民族文化和经济利益多种因素,这种状况对政府自身和社会既有积极有利的一面:有利于危机意识、竞争意识和成本意识的形成;又会产生消极有害影响:就业的反示范效应与行政成本的激增。     

从欧美经验谈我国反垄断法域外适用的立法定位

从各国反垄断法域外适用的实践情况来看,它既有成功对抗反竞争行为维护竞争秩序的一面,又有引起国家间冲突,不能完全实现其所追求目标的一面。在我国的反垄断立法过程中,我们首先应采用灵活的域外适用原则,而不局限于固定的模式;同时采用双边协定与多边协定并用的方式来解决域外适用中的冲突。     

Estimation of arrest careers using hierarchical stochastic models

This paper introduces a general procedure using hierarchical stochastic models for characterizing criminal careers within a population of heterogeneous offenders. Individuals engage in criminal careers which are treated as stochastic processes governed by fixed parameters (e.g., a rate parameter), and these parameters come from specified distributions. The parameters of these distributions at the upper level of the hierarchy must then be specified. The models are estimated using data on all persons arrested at least once in the six-county Detroit Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area during the 4 years 1974–1977 for a criterion offense (an index crime other than larceny) and arrested at least once for robbery through April 1979. The collected data set is not a random sample of all such offenders in the population. There is a bias toward selecting those with a higher arrest frequency. In order to make more general inferences, statistical adjustment was needed to overcome the arrest-frequency sampling bias. We construct a series of models for the arrest career and fit the models with the data set of arrests. After correcting biases in the data, we estimate the model parameters using empirical Bayes methods and then examine the resulting models.     

Effects of older brother-younger sister incest: A review of four cases

This study describes the self-reported histories of four women who experience long-term negative effects from childhood incest with their older brothers. In all of these cases the women describe symptoms of low self-esteem and guilt, in relation to their role in the incest. Other perceived long-term harmful effects vary according to the amount of force or coercion used by the brothers, the duration of the incest, and parental response to the incest. These include depression, difficulties with trusting others, and sexual dysfunction. The women also describe the dysfunction in their families-of-origin that contribute to their perceptions of the incest.     

Developmental explanations of delinquent behavior among siblings: Common factor vs. transmission mechanisms

We compare the statistical fit of two developmental explanations of delinquent behavior using longitudinal sibling data. The transmission effects model relates future delinquency to prior delinquency, delayed sibling effects, and unique environment. The common-factor effects model adds to these influences a latent variable representing persistent causes shared by siblings. These two models were fit to longitudinal data on 470 sibling pairs interviewed on three occasions. The common-factor effects model fit the data more closely than the transmission model. Nonmutually exclusive interpretations of the common effects model include (a) personality dispositions and (b) unchanging aspects of the social environment such as concurrent sibling effects and siblings' common friends.