Identifying Southwest Hispanics using nonmetric traits and the cultural profile

Due to the increasing number of Southwest Hispanics in the United States, as well as the overwhelming number of foreign nationals that die every year trying to enter the United States along the southern United States border with Mexico, new methods for classifying individuals have been established at the Pima County Office of the Medical Examiner in Tucson, Arizona (PCOME). For each of the past 5 years, the PCOME has investigated a record number of deaths associated with these border crossings. The overwhelming majority of the identified decedents are Mexican Nationals. However, approximately 25% of these undocumented border crossers have yet to be identified, making it clear that improved methods for human identification are greatly needed. The first goal of this paper is to delineate the suite of skeletal nonmetric traits utilized in assessing Southwest Hispanic ancestry at the PCOME. This suite of nonmetric traits has proven to be an effective component in establishing the "biological profile" of unknown individuals in these cases. The second goal of this paper is to introduce methods used at the PCOME to establish the "cultural profile" of individuals in these cases. The "cultural profile" is a set of identification criteria that include: the geographic context of recovery, personal effects, dental health, and cultural accoutrements. Establishing the "cultural profile" in these cases is essential in identifying individuals as foreign nationals who have died trying to cross the border.     

中国汉族女性青少年法医学活体骨龄推断数学模型的建立

目的建立推断中国汉族女性青少年活体骨龄的数学模型。方法摄取华中、华南及华东等地区的838名年龄介于11～20周岁正常女性青少年双侧锁骨胸骨端以及左侧肩、肘、腕、髋、膝、踝关节的X线片。依据青少年骨发育分级标准对24项骨骼发育指标进行阅片、分级,结合考虑身高、体质量及地区等影响因素．应用SAS8．1及SPSS11．0软件进行统计学处理,探索各指标与年龄的相关性。结果建立了我国汉族女性青少年利用锁骨胸骨端及6大关节骨骺闭合程度联合推断活体年龄的多元回归数学模型．推导出判定我国汉族女性青少年是否已满14、16和18周岁的Fisher’S两类判别分析方程。结论本研究所建立的判定活体年龄的数学模型丰富了活体年龄的法医学鉴定方法,有利于提高活体骨龄鉴定方法的科学性和结论的准确性。     

How you can tell if the simulations in computational criminology are any good

Computational criminology applies computer simulations to study topics of interest for criminologists. Just as for all computer modelling in science, the validity of the simulations ultimately depends on whether they are able to reproduce empirical phenomena with sufficient accuracy. The only way in which this can be determined is by comparing model output to real observations. This paper provides an overview of how such model evaluations can be undertaken.

Persistence of innovation: stylised facts and panel data evidence

This paper investigates whether firms innovate persistently or discontinuously over time using an innovation panel data set on German manufacturing and service firms for the period 1994–2002. It turns out that innovation behaviour is permanent at the firm level to a very large extent. Using a dynamic random effects discrete choice model and a new estimator recently proposed by Wooldridge (2005), I further shed some light on the driving forces for this phenomenon. The econometric results show that past innovation experience is an important determinant for manufacturing as well as for service sector firms, and hence confirm the hypothesis of true state dependence. In addition, the results highlight the important role of knowledge provided by skilled employees and unobserved individual heterogeneity in explaining the persistence of innovation.

刑法解释的公众认同

刑法解释的公众认同是社会公众对刑法解释及其结论的认可和接受。它更多和更主要地是与司法活动特别是与根据刑法解释作出的刑事判决发生联系。转型时期的公众认同对于刑法解释极具价值。刑法解释的公众认同主要包括刑法解释的常识化和刑法解释的合理性两个方面。在当前我国,其具体样态一方面表现为强调法律效果与社会效果的有机统一;另一方面表现在司法实践中对案件定性的罪名进行有意识的选择甚至变更。刑法解释公众认同的实现路径有赖于刑法解释的主体、结果导向主义的刑法解释方法以及公众意见的反映机制。     

中国城市化进程与犯罪率之间关系的实证研究——基于结构突变的协整分析

在我国城市化发展进程中,伴随着犯罪率的显著上升,二者具有显著的长期趋势的一致性和短期波动的差异性。＂严打＂运动的外部冲击对协整模型具有显著的结构影响,＂严打＂运动在短期也起到了遏制犯罪的震慑效果。     

The rise of the ‘China Model’ and ‘Beijing Consensus’: evidence of authoritarian diffusion?

The rise of authoritarian great powers has raised questions about the dominance of the liberal democratic model and has led to a perception that the relative balance between democracy and authoritarianism is shifting. Consequently, there is increasing interest in and concerns about the diffusion of alternative ‘models’ of political and economic development. Given that China's impressive economic development has led to growing military strength and geopolitical prestige, evaluating perceptions of the legitimacy, effectiveness, and applicability of that country's model of ‘illiberal capitalism’ is a good place to start. This paper evaluates whether the ‘China Model’ or ‘Beijing Consensus' is gaining traction internationally through a content analysis of eight years of US and non-US media sources. It finds that concerns about the beginnings of an anti-democratic ‘reverse wave’ are exaggerated and that at the present time there does not appear to be a decisive shift in favour of a model of authoritarian-capitalism.     

Spin (and Pitch) Doctors: Campaign Strategies in Televised Political Debates

Political campaigns frequently set low expectations (using a low pitch) in televised political debates to make the later claim that their candidates have done better than expected. The limited credibility of campaign aides, coupled with the fact that perception often confirms expectations, makes this strategy psychologically problematic. In Study 1, when no post-debate information was provided, lowering expectations for a candidate led to lower ratings of performance. In Study 2, when positive feedback (a post-debate spin) was provided after a low pitch, participants did rate performance positively, but only when the spin was supplied by a credible media source. The same strategy when used by campaign strategists adversely impacted candidates, leading to lower ratings of debate performance and network coverage.     

A test of the stability of punishment hypothesis: The Dutch case

This paper tests the hypothesis of the stability of punishment as developed by Blumstein and his associates against Dutch prison data. After summarizing the existing empirical evidence, Dutch prison data are presented pertaining to the average daily population in penal institutions, on the one hand, and the number of admissions in these institutions, on the other hand. In three ways it is tested whether these data do support the hypothesis: regression analysis, Box-Jenkins analysis, and the analysis of a few dynamic models as presented by Berket al. (1981). The paper ends with discussing Blumstein's hypothesis and considers the way research into the extent of the prison population should be continued.     

Asked and Answered: Knowledge Levels When We Will Not Take “Don't Know” for an Answer

A pivotal claim in research on citizen competence is that the typical citizen knows very little about politics. Public opinion surveys provide a considerable body of evidence in support of this position. However, survey protocols with respect to factual questions about politics violate established norms in psychometric research on educational testing in that don't know answers are encouraged rather than discouraged. Because encouraging don't know responses potentially confounds efforts to identify substantive understanding, this practice may lead to the systematic understatement of political knowledge. We explore this possibility with data drawn from three split-ballot tests: one conducted as part of a survey in the Tallahassee, Florida, metropolitan area, one conducted as part of the 1998 NES Pilot, and one conducted as part of the 2000 NES. Results reveal that the mean level of political knowledge increases by approximately 15% when knowledge questions are asked in accordance with accepted practices in educational testing.