习观者融入群体性事件的成因及防治对策

在群体性事件中,围观者是影响肇事群体行为的非常重要的因素,围观群众具有成分复杂性、运动形态流动性、认识盲目性和心态剧变性等特点,围观群众可能会成为肇事群体。为此,应坚持“可散不可聚”的原则,充分发挥社会组织、主流媒体的作用,采取各种措施,及时设法阻断围观者与肇事群体之间的互动,疏散和化解围观群众,防止他们融为一体。     

Mapping foreign policy behavior: An assessment and evaluation of events structures

Employing events indices for cooperation and conflict from the COPDAB data set, the graphic structuring process established by Steven Brams, and several alternative methods of quantifying the resulting event digraphs, this paper examines the utility of the graphic structuring process in efforts at explanation and prediction. Arguing that if the graphic structure represents an underlying structural order in the foreign policy behavior of states, predictability should exist between the graphic portrayal and other behavioral structures around it. Despite face validity in the sociometric qualities of the digraph results, little predictive capability was uncovered. The paper explains the testing process, disc asses the test results, and proposes alternative uses for the structural mapping procedure.     

高校学生突发事件的法律应对

迅速、有效地应对高校学生突发事件,是建设和谐校园的必然要求。应采取“控制式升级”体制,赋予高校下设单位一定的突发事件确认权与紧急处置权。高校各职能部门应根据“分类管理,分工合作”原则,行使监测、预警、信息披露、紧急救助等各项具体紧急处置行为,同时完善能尽快控制或消除学生突发事件造成的损害且兼顾保障学生各项基本权利的高校学生突发事件应对法治。     

Measuring and Modeling Repeat and Near-Repeat Burglary Effects

We develop a mathematical framework aimed at analyzing repeat and near-repeat effects in crime data. Parsing burglary data from Long Beach, CA according to different counting methods, we determine the probability distribution functions for the time interval τ between repeat offenses. We then compare these observed distributions to theoretically derived distributions in which the repeat effects are due solely to persistent risk heterogeneity. We find that risk heterogeneity alone cannot explain the observed distributions, while a form of event dependence (boosts) can. Using this information, we model repeat victimization as a series of random events, the likelihood of which changes each time an offense occurs. We are able to estimate typical time scales for repeat burglary events in Long Beach by fitting our data to this model. Computer simulations of this model using these observed parameters agree with the empirical data.

电话情报系统在处置边境突发性事件中的应用

在处置边境突发性事件中,情报与指挥脱节困扰着公安边防工作。将情报与通信指挥系统有机联系起来,利用电话情报系统,构建基于处置边境突发性事件的指挥和情报预警应用平台,加强情报与指挥的衔接,提高快速反应处置能力。     

Probabilistic forecasting of political events

Political conflicts are modeled as Markovian processes where the states are the possible outcomes and the forecast is the steady‐state probability of each outcome. The input variables are the power of the actors, the salience of the issue to the actors and the desirability of each possible outcome to the actors.

The modeling flexibility of the proposed method is verified by its application to twenty‐eight actual conflicts that include economic and political issues resolved on national and international settings. The predictive capability of the method is established by close agreement between probability intervals of the forecasts and the actual outcomes.     

警察经历枪击事件后的应激反应及其干预对策

警察卷入枪击事件是职业生活中的极端应激源,枪击事件将引发正常的应激反应,当个体的应对策略和社会支持无法应对该事件时,这种正常反应将发展出创伤性应激障碍,严重影响其身心健康和工作效率。因此,探讨警察卷入枪击事件后的应激反应及其危险因素,进而提供相应的评估方法和干预对策,对警察的心理健康很有意义。     

试论以情报信息为导向的群体性事件处置模式

情报信息是公安机关做好群体性事件预测、处置的前提和基础,是公安机关协助党委、政府做好群体性事件处置的最有力的保障,是提高公安机关工作效率和水平的重要基础,是维护社会稳定的长期策略。针对现阶段在处置群体性事件中存在的有关情报信息问题,应建立以情报信息为导向的群体性事件处置模式,并对其运行原理进行研究。     

加拿大处置群体性骚乱的做法及启示

加拿大的群体性骚乱,类似我国的群体性事件.在对群体性骚乱的认识上,加拿大从人本主义的观念出发,认为骚乱的出现不可避免,主张从源头上控制骚乱的发生.在对群体性骚乱的现场处置上,加拿大强调制定行动预案,建立精干高效的指挥系统,各警种间协调配合,灵活运用各种技战术.加拿大处置群体性骚乱的经验告诉我们,正确处置群体性事件,必须立足从源头上解决问题,并建立灵敏快捷的情报信息预警机制、统一高效的指挥机制、诸警联动的快速反应机制、快速有效的现场控制机制和强有力的警务保障机制,讲究处置的策略方法.     

论群体性事件预警机制

构建群体性事件预警机制,对于及时收集关于群体性事件深层次、内幕性和行动性的情报信息,积极预防和化解矛盾纠纷,把群体性事件苗头解决在基层、解决在萌芽状态具有重要的意义。为此,要以整合群体性事件信息资源为目标,建立渠道通畅、网络严密的群体性事件监测机制;组建专门的情报信息管理、协调和处理机构,构建群体性事件的预测和预报机制;按照“属地管理、分级负责和谁主管、谁负责”的原则,建立群体性事件调处的快速反应机制。