博弈论视角下我国群体性事件及治理路径探讨

近年来我国群体性事件规模和数量均呈上升趋势。群体性事件的产生受多种因素的影响,并且有一定的社会根源。而群体性事件发生的整个过程实际上就是各参与主体的博弈过程。本文通过建立博弈模型,从理论上对参与主体进行分析,研究其利益诉求及其在博弈中的地位,以及不同形式下的博弈均衡,以期实现对群体性事件进行预防和有效治理。     

群体性事件处置机制建设

当前公安机关处置群体性事件工作存在的问题 ,一是缺乏预警机制 ,导致信息不灵 ,工作被动 ;二是保障工作不力 ;三是现场处置水平不高 ;四是对群体性事件处置研究评估不够。这主要是缺乏处置群体性事件的有效机制 ,因而必须强化五大机制建设 ,即建立灵敏的预警机制 ;建立统一的组织指挥机制 ;建立强有力的保障机制 ;建立高效的现场处置机制 ;建立科学的评估机制     

警察经历枪击事件后的应激反应及其干预对策

警察卷入枪击事件是职业生活中的极端应激源,枪击事件将引发正常的应激反应,当个体的应对策略和社会支持无法应对该事件时,这种正常反应将发展出创伤性应激障碍,严重影响其身心健康和工作效率。因此,探讨警察卷入枪击事件后的应激反应及其危险因素,进而提供相应的评估方法和干预对策,对警察的心理健康很有意义。     

媒体因素在恐怖事件中的地位和作用

恐怖组织内在地需要媒体,需要宣传,在恐怖事件中,媒体是一把双刃剑,如果极尽渲染追逐,则为祸苍生;如果明辨是非,理性引导,则造福社会,要从维护社会稳定,提升执政能力视角认识媒体的重要作用。     

Predictors of length of stay in forensic psychiatry: The influence of perceived risk of violence

This study describes the prevalence of adverse events and length of stay in forensic psychiatric patients with and without a restriction order. Detailed clinical and administrative information from medical records and written court decisions was gathered retrospectively from admission until discharge for a Swedish population-based, consecutive cohort of forensic psychiatric patients (n = 125). The median length of stay for the whole cohort was 951 days, but patients with a restriction order stayed in hospital almost five times as long as patients without. Restriction orders were related to convictions for violent crime, but not for any other differences in demographic or clinical variables. The majority of the patients (60%) were involved in adverse events (violence, threats, substance abuse, or absconding) at some time during their treatment. Patients with restriction orders were overrepresented in violent and threat events. Previous contact with child and adolescence psychiatric services, current violent index crime, psychotic disorders, a history of substance, and absconding during treatment predicted longer length of stay. Being a parent, high current Global Assessment of Functioning scores, and mood disorders were all significantly related to earlier discharge. In a stepwise Cox regression analysis current violent index crime and absconding remained risk factors for a longer hospital stay, while a diagnosis of mood disorder was significantly related to a shorter length of stay.     

论个人隐私与证券信息披露之边界

随着市场与信息技术的发展,近年来,一些上市公司董事、监事、高级管理人员及实际控制人的婚变、离职、犯罪、健康问题等私人事件的发生影响到了上市公司的股票交易价格,但这些事件并未包括在我国相关法律列举必须在临时报告里公开进行信息披露的"重大事件"之中,进而对投资者的利益产生了影响。本文通过分析对此类事件进行信息披露的必要性与合规性,阐述其中股东知情权与公司高层管理人员隐私权的冲突与协调,研究有关事件中信息披露的边界划分,并提出相应的制度完善建议。     

针对网民特性的群体性事件治理策略探析

在群体性事件的网络传播过程中,网民作为传播主体,是信息生产、分配、交换的基础,也是网络群体性事件发生、发展的第一推动力。有关群体性事件的治理策略,必须在结合信息网络发展特征的基础上,注重对事件主体结构特征的把握,从而在工具性与实体性两个方面进行探讨。     

关于构建群体性事件动态预警信息网络的思考

对群体性事件的准确预警是以获取苗头性、内幕性、深层次的动态信息为先导的,因此,应健全完善群体性事件动态信息网络,建立健全群体性事件动态预警信息机制,从而实现早发现、早化解、早处置,有效防范或最大限度减少群体性事件造成的损失。     

和谐社会视角下大学生群体事件的危机与预防

高校是人才培养和精神生产的主要组织,近年来大学生群体事件频频发生,严重影响和谐社会、和谐校园的构建。大学生群体事件不同于历史上的大学生运动,危害性较大,不具备存在的合理性,不具备存在的合法性,有效预防大学生群体事件就成为构建社会主义和谐社会的现实诉求。要善于运用矛盾原理、可能与现实关系原理、系统论原理、量变和质变关系原理、必然性和偶然性关系原理认识和处理大学生群体事件,做到防患于未然。     

Mutation in Y STRs: Repeat motif gains vs. losses

Y chromosome specific short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) are widely used in population genetics and forensics. Since these markers do not recombine, mutation is the only source of diversity. The primary mutational mechanism leading to length changes in STRs is thought to be polymerase template slippage, and the most common change is the gain or the loss of one repeat motif. In this work, we aim to study 19 Y-STR alleles’ contraction and expansion. Alleles were grouped into tertiles: short (1^st tertile), intermediate (2^nd tertile) and long alleles (3^rd tertile). Significant differences between repeat gains and losses were found at four markers - DYS19, DYS439 for intermediate alleles, and DYS570 and DYS626 for long alleles. When the average number is computed for the pooled loci, for short alleles, the number of repeat motif gains is higher than of repeat losses, and the opposite happens for long alleles. For intermediate alleles, the proportion between the number of repeat gains and losses is close to one. Generally, the rate of expansion decreases from the first tertile to the third, and conversely, the rate of contraction increases from the first tertile to the third. The pooled loci tertiles’ mutation rate increases from short to long alleles. Our results demonstrate that the mutation direction and rate depend on alleles’ length. The longer the allele the greater the mutation and contraction rates.