群体性事件与网络、网络舆情研究述评

中国正处于群体性事件的易发、多发和高发期,频发的群体性事件已经成为影响社会稳定的最为突出的问题。近年来,几乎所有的群体性事件的发生发展都体现了网络及网络舆情的推波助澜作用。群体性事件中的网络及网络舆情既是党政部门的工作重点,又是学术界的重要研究课题。     

社会群体性事件应急机制研究

构建系统化、科学化的社会群体性事件的应急机制,把矛盾化解在基层,解决在萌芽状态,进一步打造政治稳定、社会安宁、经济发展、民生和谐、百姓满意、人民群众安居乐业的良好局面。     

Mapping foreign policy behavior: An assessment and evaluation of events structures

Employing events indices for cooperation and conflict from the COPDAB data set, the graphic structuring process established by Steven Brams, and several alternative methods of quantifying the resulting event digraphs, this paper examines the utility of the graphic structuring process in efforts at explanation and prediction. Arguing that if the graphic structure represents an underlying structural order in the foreign policy behavior of states, predictability should exist between the graphic portrayal and other behavioral structures around it. Despite face validity in the sociometric qualities of the digraph results, little predictive capability was uncovered. The paper explains the testing process, disc asses the test results, and proposes alternative uses for the structural mapping procedure.     

A process tracing plausibility probe of uneven democratization's effects on cooperative dyads: The case of Zambia and Zimbabwe 1980–1993

In this article we conduct a plausibility probe of the hypothesis that uneven democratization decreases cooperation within primarily cooperative dyads. This hypothesis is derived from a combination of Remmer's theory of democratization and international cooperation with democratic peace theory. The case of cooperation and conflict between two small powers, Zambia and Zimbabwe, from the latter's independence in 1980 to 1993 fits Eckstein's criteria for a useful plausibility probe. In addition to overall, bilateral and regional interactions between the two countries, we examine relations in the political, economic, strategic, and physical environment issue areas. Methodologically, we combine time series analysis of events coded in the COPDAB format and interviews with policy makers. We find that, although net cooperation between the two countries remained positive during the entire 1980–1993 period, it decreased significantly overall and in economic issues after the beginning of the Zambian democratic transition in June 1990. Our data allow us to trace the process involved in this decline in net cooperation, ruling out some alternative explanations but not concurrent Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs), and showing how even slightly uneven democratization was an important cause because it decreased similarity and trust, while not decreasing transparency, and increased uncertainty and thus nationalist responses. We conclude that this plausibility probe justifies further systematic research on the effects of uneven democratization on cooperative dyads to test our hypothesis on cases with and without SAPs, and suggests the utility of further probes of the effects of different types of uneven change on various types of dyads.     

思想政治教育视域下高校突发事件软武器研究综述

思想政治教育是高校突发事件软武器中的重要组成部分,它在解决突发事件中发挥着重要的作用。我国高校对这一问题的研究主要包括：对思想政治教育与应对突发事件两者关系的研究;对思想政治教育在应对突发事件中的作用和功能研究;对思想政治教育应对突发事件的策略和方法研究;对思想政治教育理论进行创新的研究,等等。对这些研究成果进行综述分析,有助于人们更好地把握最近的研究动态,并进一步推出相关领域的深入研究。     

高校学生突发事件的法律应对

迅速、有效地应对高校学生突发事件,是建设和谐校园的必然要求。应采取“控制式升级”体制,赋予高校下设单位一定的突发事件确认权与紧急处置权。高校各职能部门应根据“分类管理,分工合作”原则,行使监测、预警、信息披露、紧急救助等各项具体紧急处置行为,同时完善能尽快控制或消除学生突发事件造成的损害且兼顾保障学生各项基本权利的高校学生突发事件应对法治。     

全力防范偶发事件转化为大规模群体性事件——抓好源头治理和初期处置

近年来,因偶发因素引发的群体性事件逐渐增多,社会危害极其严重,已成为影响社会和谐、稳定的突出问题,如不能有效加以防范和控制,极易引发社会骚动,甚至造成局部社会动荡。偶发事件引发社会骚动存在一定的必然因素,它反映的是我国社会转型、经济转轨时期的深层次社会矛盾,所暴露出来的是政府职能部门及其党员干部在工作理念、工作机制、工作方式中存在的一些不足和弊端。     

The relationship between childhood traumatic events,social support,and mental health problems in prisoners

This study examined the prevalence of childhood traumatic events (CTE), social support levels as well as mental health problems (MHP), to test for differences between traumatized and non-traumatized individuals, and to investigate the relationship among the aforementioned parameters in a sample of 49 prisoners in Switzerland. This cross-sectional study used standardized self-report measurements. In line with expectations, prisoners reported a high rate of traumatic events. Furthermore, results indicated that those traumatized differed from those non-traumatized regarding the level of social support, interpersonal sensitivity, and depression. However, no relationship between CTE and social support as well as MHP was found. This points to specific therapeutic needs of those traumatized, and to the necessity of a trauma-informed correctional care. Moreover, these study results are a further step into more integrated models of criminal behavior.     

Measuring and Modeling Repeat and Near-Repeat Burglary Effects

We develop a mathematical framework aimed at analyzing repeat and near-repeat effects in crime data. Parsing burglary data from Long Beach, CA according to different counting methods, we determine the probability distribution functions for the time interval τ between repeat offenses. We then compare these observed distributions to theoretically derived distributions in which the repeat effects are due solely to persistent risk heterogeneity. We find that risk heterogeneity alone cannot explain the observed distributions, while a form of event dependence (boosts) can. Using this information, we model repeat victimization as a series of random events, the likelihood of which changes each time an offense occurs. We are able to estimate typical time scales for repeat burglary events in Long Beach by fitting our data to this model. Computer simulations of this model using these observed parameters agree with the empirical data.

利益视角下扩大公民有序政治参与模式的构建——以厦门PX项目事件中公民政治参与为例

公民政治参与的内在根本动力是利益的追求。以厦门PX项目事件中的公民政治参与为例,从利益分析视角指出公民参与所呈现的特点,提出构建以人为本,政府与公民良性互动的政治参与模式,并指出努力方向。